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Tropical 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Discussion

CraggyRider said:
GFS has been showing that for several days now; hopefully it is wrong as it typically is at that range.
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It actually has some support. It has the CMC, GEFS, EPS, ECMWF, and ICON on its side they just all handle it differently. The GFS and GEFS seem to be on the strong end of it and move it very slow. Whereas the ICON, euro suit, and CMC have it in the SW GOM and move it faster. The GFS is able to get it that strong due to it forming in the Caribbean and already has it strong when it enters the GOM on top of it being slow. This is seen where the GFS forms the system around hr 200 but it doesn’t reach land till around hr 350. But it’s definitely something to watch.
 
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Correct me if I’m wrong, but if the steering flows and blocking patterns stay the way they are for a majority of the summer, with a ridge in the plains and a trough near the Carolinas, wouldn’t that lead to a favorable track for land falling East Coast Hurricanes? I’m most likely wrong with the placement of the atmospheric features but you get the point.
 
Can anyone get the rainfall totals from the 00z GFS for the GOM and the Yucatan Peninsula. GFS looks to have went mad in that region and I’m curious at the hard numbers.479513E7-6ECA-4DD3-A8ED-75B527D3121E.gif
 
BufordWX said:
Can anyone get the rainfall totals from the 00z GFS for the GOM and the Yucatan Peninsula. GFS looks to have went mad in that region and I’m curious at the hard numbers.View attachment 42150
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Here it is. And even though it doesn’t go out farther the fact that New Orleans or for that matter anywhere in the SE could see 25+ inches of rain makes that a scary solution.
09B9DF16-5FAB-41CC-B407-5B3054EAB73C.jpeg
 
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This run of the GFS could be interesting. At hr 168 it has a 998lp in the Caribbean and has yet to tap the energy in the pacific. It could be a big run I’ll post pictures when it finishes.
 
What is the record for the earliest we have had three named storms?
 
GFS sucks. King EURO got Bertha so I’m gonna pay attention to it.
 
Correct me if I’m wrong, but if steering patterns stay like they have been the past few weeks, wouldn’t that convey a favorable track for East Coast landfalls?
 
Cadi40 said:
Correct me if I’m wrong, but if steering patterns stay like they have been the past few weeks, wouldn’t that convey a favorable track for East Coast landfalls?
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well we had a weakness this week from the giant upper low which would favor a western track but we're also clearing up faster than expected and looking more summer like next week so who knows at this point
 
EURO brings a strung out mess into the GOM latest run. ICON not far from same general area. GFS been all over the place.
 
EURO looks like it wanted to cross Florida maybe at the end of the run.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Looks like the GFS has consistently been showing a system in the Gulf.
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GFS has been awful so far in terms of being a huge outlier on where this development could occur. EURO is at least consistent being much further west with others (CMC) for development. UKMET and others also from time to time being much further west (possibly from the pacific) before moving north into BOC.
 
they should just start TWO's already lol

This one is in the middle of nowhere though but is 92L

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
725 PM EDT Thu May 28 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the area of low
pressure over the central Atlantic.

A surface trough and associated upper-level disturbance are
producing disorganized shower activity and gusty winds over the
central Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles east-southeast of
Bermuda. Gradual development of this system is possible, and it
could acquire some subtropical characteristics on Friday and
Saturday as it moves generally northward. Development is not
expected after that time due to unfavorable environmental
conditions. For additional information, see High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service. The next Special Tropical
Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by 9 AM EDT Friday,
or earlier if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

two_atl_5d0 (3).png
 
Hopefully this verifies ... so early in the "season" we do not need anything to watch close by ...


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