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2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Discussion

Ethan80963

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I see some models are back and forth on what they think will happen once it hits the Atlantic solutions from just a tropical wave to a low end tropical storm. I guess we’ll have to see but I would most likely bet on tropical depression strength at most.
 
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Ethan80963

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Ethan80963

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GFS has been showing that for several days now; hopefully it is wrong as it typically is at that range.
It actually has some support. It has the CMC, GEFS, EPS, ECMWF, and ICON on its side they just all handle it differently. The GFS and GEFS seem to be on the strong end of it and move it very slow. Whereas the ICON, euro suit, and CMC have it in the SW GOM and move it faster. The GFS is able to get it that strong due to it forming in the Caribbean and already has it strong when it enters the GOM on top of it being slow. This is seen where the GFS forms the system around hr 200 but it doesn’t reach land till around hr 350. But it’s definitely something to watch.
 
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Cadi40

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Correct me if I’m wrong, but if the steering flows and blocking patterns stay the way they are for a majority of the summer, with a ridge in the plains and a trough near the Carolinas, wouldn’t that lead to a favorable track for land falling East Coast Hurricanes? I’m most likely wrong with the placement of the atmospheric features but you get the point.
 

BufordWX

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Can anyone get the rainfall totals from the 00z GFS for the GOM and the Yucatan Peninsula. GFS looks to have went mad in that region and I’m curious at the hard numbers. 479513E7-6ECA-4DD3-A8ED-75B527D3121E.gif
 

Ethan80963

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Can anyone get the rainfall totals from the 00z GFS for the GOM and the Yucatan Peninsula. GFS looks to have went mad in that region and I’m curious at the hard numbers.View attachment 42150
Here it is. And even though it doesn’t go out farther the fact that New Orleans or for that matter anywhere in the SE could see 25+ inches of rain makes that a scary solution.
09B9DF16-5FAB-41CC-B407-5B3054EAB73C.jpeg
 
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