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Tropical 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Discussion

GFS finally folds to euro and others with main develop out of pacific then north to BOC. EURO landfall a little more East of Texas.
 
Code Red for development on our system that could come out of the pacific into the BOC.
 
12z EPS. Looks like the GEFS is looking more towards the FL panhandle/Alabama/Mississippi for this threat. Whereas the EPS is looking more towards the TX/LA boarder. The GEFS is on the stronger end as well where as the EPS is weaker. My guess is more towards the GEFS due to the conditions in the gulf in terms of strength however I would go with more of a EPS/GEFS blend in terms of track. This is very much subject to change in the coming week.
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The 00z EPS had a higher number of ts/hurricanes than previous runs. This could be its hat tilt towards the GEFS.
 
Hats off to the euro for Bertha and now this one too. GFS absolutely garbage first two storms of the season already, trying to form a major in the Caribbean while EURO has been consistent on Pacific energy being the main thing to watch.
 
accu35 said:
further north?
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I don’t know about further north but compared to the 00z it looked like less support. However since the 6z only goes out to day 6 I wouldn’t trust much of what it says. All I would take from it is that it still shows support for some sort of disturbance. The 12z will definitely show us more so I wouldn’t say it’s any less of a threat until we see consistent runs showing otherwise.
 
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The ICON had a very concerning scenario. It had this as a ts in the bay of Campeche for over a day before getting the pressure down to 999. With its trajectory it would send it into the heart of the GOM going really slow for probably a few days as the hp in the east lifts out. I don’t like this look and a scenario like this should be watched for, I saw some EPS members clinging on to this type of scenario.
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Strength is usually 90% off until the storm actually forms or in this case survives into the BOC after being inland. It’s not the models being wrong there just isn’t a system there yet and formation (how big or small) can influence strength among many other things. A bigger system would likely be weaker and take longer.
 
CMC looking kinda like the ICON. But this is hr96 and the ICON was at hr180. These are pretty big time difference for a system like this.
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Also the GFS pretty much dropped this threat last run. However it is back this run and probably a weak ts.
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I think it would go to Texas..hopefully somewhere west. Cause the East is too wet Florida to the Carolinas.
 
18z GEFS. Members aren’t as strong as the EPS members and are farther east
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abk0710 said:
Any ideas where this could possibly end up? I know so much is up in the air, but I was just seeing!
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My guess is around the tx/la boarder as this is what the ensembles are looking like. However, like you said a lot is in the air right now so this is very much subject to change.
 
abk0710 said:
Any ideas where this could possibly end up? I know so much is up in the air, but I was just seeing!
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Texas or Mexico in this pattern. EURO has been most consistent so far...and it’s into southern Texas. I say that because the GFS was cluelessly forming a monster in the Caribbean into the eastern Gulf for this same system..which from the get go was coming from the epac (euro,uk,others).
 
abk0710 said:
What's the difference between the regular EURO and the EPS? So sorry if this is a crazy question.
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The euro is the operational model and the EPS is the euros ensembles which consists of 50 smaller models that run off the same algorithm as the euro operational but spit out different solutions. Hope this helps
 
Ethan80963 said:
The euro is the operational model and the EPS is the euros ensembles which consists of 50 smaller models that run off the same algorithm as the euro operational but spit out different solutions. Hope this helps
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just to add with that, even with the GEFS you see way more possible scenarios on the ensembles vs the op runs which can vary wildly run to run on one solution
 
Brent said:
just to add with that, even with the GEFS you see way more possible scenarios on the ensembles vs the op runs which can vary wildly run to run on one solution
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So the ensembles are more accurate? or less accurate because there is a bigger variety?
 
abk0710 said:
So the ensembles are more accurate? or less accurate because there is a bigger variety?
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the ensembles are more likely to have a correct solution, but because there's dozens of them its really impossible to say which one will verify honestly. The smallest thing can have a big impact on track and intensity especially when we don't even have an official system, for instance we don't even know for sure where the low(if one develops) would actually develop, that could play a big role in track as well. I've seen storms develop and shift majorly west and east because of where the low formed, weak storms are notorious for that especially
 
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