GEFS members at hr 240, hr 282, and hr 336
It actually has some support. It has the CMC, GEFS, EPS, ECMWF, and ICON on its side they just all handle it differently. The GFS and GEFS seem to be on the strong end of it and move it very slow. Whereas the ICON, euro suit, and CMC have it in the SW GOM and move it faster. The GFS is able to get it that strong due to it forming in the Caribbean and already has it strong when it enters the GOM on top of it being slow. This is seen where the GFS forms the system around hr 200 but it doesn’t reach land till around hr 350. But it’s definitely something to watch.GFS has been showing that for several days now; hopefully it is wrong as it typically is at that range.
Here it is. And even though it doesn’t go out farther the fact that New Orleans or for that matter anywhere in the SE could see 25+ inches of rain makes that a scary solution.