• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Discussion

127
ABNT20 KNHC 312349
TWOAT

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
750 PM EDT Sun May 31 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential for
tropical cyclone formation over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

The remnants of Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Amanda are currently
located over northern Guatemala. This system is forecast to move
northwestward to northward within a broader area of disturbed
weather, and it could emerge over the southeastern Bay of Campeche
on Monday. If the remnants move back over water, environmental
conditions appear conducive to support some development, and a new
tropical depression could form while the system moves little through
the middle of this week. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation,
heavy rainfall is likely to continue over portions of southern
Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador, Belize, and western Honduras during
the next few days. For additional information on the rainfall
threat, see products from your national meteorological service. The
next update on this system will be in the first regularly scheduled
Tropical Weather Outlook of the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane season,
which will be issued by 2 AM EDT Monday morning.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven
Click to expand...
 
When will we have a clearer understanding of where this system could be headed? I worry about the short time frame.
 
abk0710 said:
When will we have a clearer understanding of where this system could be headed? I worry about the short time frame.
Click to expand...
My guess on when we will know is after it forms and leaves the Bay of Campeche. Until then it could just meander down there for days possibly or it could leave and head towards land almost immediately. But we won’t know until it happens. That’s why the models are so split on timing, while they all try to figure out what’s gonna happen once this disturbance forms over the Bay of Campeche.
 
abk0710 said:
When will we have a clearer understanding of where this system could be headed? I worry about the short time frame.
Click to expand...


I don't know your individual situation in New Orleans, but what will you need to do if it is announced on Thursday afternoon that a Category 2 hurricane is expected to make landfall near New Orleans on Monday night (June 8) - Tuesday morning (June 9)?
 
Breslau said:
I don't know your individual situation in New Orleans, but what will you need to do if it is announced on Thursday afternoon that a Category 2 hurricane is expected to make landfall near New Orleans on Monday night (June 8) - Tuesday morning (June 9)?
Click to expand...

Is that a possibilty?
 
abk0710 said:
Is that a possibilty?
Click to expand...

You didn't specifiy, so...

Landfall at Morgan City - Houma?
Yes since there is so much uncertainty this far out. Scroll up to see how there are models/projections to the East of New Orleans to Corpus Christi, Texas. Landfall at Morgan City - Houma puts New Orleans on the bad side of the hurricane.


Category 2?
I wouldn't rule it out. It is better to prepare for a stronger storm and breath a sigh of relief when it isn't that strong than to prepare for a weak storm and be surprised when it is stronger than you expected.
 
Stick around for good information in this Forum. If this does transition from potential to something definite, there might be a specifc discussion thread created just for it.
 
Usually this time of year the tropical systems are lopsided to the eastern side. So the systems that would impact Baton Rouge the most would be landfalling systems generally west of Houma, then all the way back to Galveson, TX. I guess it depends how quick the storm leaves the Bay of Campeche.
 
000
ABNT20 KNHC 061143
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Jun 6 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Cristobal, centered over the central Gulf of Mexico.

An area of low pressure is expected to develop along a cold front a
few hundred miles east or northeast of Bermuda by the middle of
next week. Some development of this system is possible while it
moves northwestward or west-northwestward over the western Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg
Click to expand...
 
Lol no one commenting how the 12z GFS sent us another cane out of the Caribbean in the short term? What a POS of a model. No other model suggests this
 
18z GFS would a major disaster for Guatemala that just saw 30” of rain. Good thing it’s prob wrong with formation and track.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Lol no one commenting how the 12z GFS sent us another cane out of the Caribbean in the short term? What a POS of a model. No other model suggests this
Click to expand...

I mean the EPS didn’t completely disagree. Still not a ton of support though. Just something to keep an eye on
8B437560-1D6C-451D-9874-89229E578B90.jpeg
0BF3A694-CCE4-41D8-92E5-F53DDF84184A.jpeg
 
Brent said:
I believe we still have over 2 weeks for the D record Dolly is next

Meanwhile the Eastern Pacific which usually builds a lead in the early season is completely dead
Click to expand...

Probably La Nina kicking in.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Model support has been pretty lackluster but legitimately non zero with this feature. It's likely going to be the only game in town for a while plus it's the western Caribbean in June, arguably the most climatologically favored area of the basin for tropical cyclone development at this time of the year.
 
Regardless of development, Guatemala and areas nearby could see some damage from this tropical wave after all the flooding they just had.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top