Shaggy
Member
GFS was back to the east side of Florida at 0z as well. So far out though it's just viewing entertainment at the moment.
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Tropical 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Discussion
- Thread starter Snowfan
- Start date
GFS was back to the east side of Florida at 0z as well. So far out though it's just viewing entertainment at the moment.
I actually think that this one is within 5 days. The time frame for those EPS probs was for 24-72 hours out and this was the euro from tonight showing some sort of very weak disturbance on the eastern side of Florida as well. We'll have to see though because although the Euro and EPS see it not many other models do. Most have the moisture and energy associated with it but don't form it like the Euro suit does. Nothing major again just a very weak rainmaker at best. The GFS looks to be sniffing something out in the lr but I don't see the GEFS jumping on board that much but I must give it to the GFS it has been very consistent when showing this system.
The Central American gyre is starting to show up nicely, very favorable look with a nice 200mb VP anomaly, that’s quite the signal right there
Quite a impressive signal here to with anticyclonic flow at 200mb which is favorable for TC development, it’s no wonder why the GFS spinned up that storm in the LR, it originated from the CAG, wouldn’t shock me if we see something from the CAG soon
Quite a impressive signal here to with anticyclonic flow at 200mb which is favorable for TC development, it’s no wonder why the GFS spinned up that storm in the LR, it originated from the CAG, wouldn’t shock me if we see something from the CAG soon
Looking at the 06z GFS you can definitely tell that the ingredients are there in the Caribean lots of moisture and lots of cyclonic energy floating around. And still was able to pop a system towards the end of the run but it wouldn't surprise me to see it try to pop a system earlier due to the factors that are in place.
That’s a big yikes, CCKW interaction soon... remember CAGs can develop something either in the GOM or pacific side, at this point there’s so much that could support a TC developing around early June but where is the question and something we likely won’t know for a good min, but given CCKW interaction, CAG and boiling GOM temps, something is possible 
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The GEFS took a sizable step in activity after hr 300. I expect to see more runs like this that just pop random systems. We’ll need to keep monitoring this I feel like we’re gonna see a big jump in action soon.
I know I keep saying it but it amazes me how consistent the GFS has been with that tc in the long range even if it doesn’t happen it has been really consistent. Here is the 12z run. The GFS has this system start getting its act together around day 10 but meanders around in Central America for a few days before entering the GOM.
Day 10
Hr 366
Day 10
Hr 366
pcbjr
Member
Yes ... I for one have been watching that and glad to see you've seen it too. Solace ... it is a long way out there and it is very early in the year for something that wrapped to actually happen ... I for one am hoping we see none this year. I even spent $10K taking down big trees near my house and buying 3 weeks worth of dehydrated food ... like maybe karma will thank me for spending money ...
Wonder what the NHC thinks about this
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And the EPS starting to show the GFS some support in the lr
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6z EPS
EURO with developing hurricane in the BOC.
Scary setup. Prob won’t happen. Models usually too fast. 
Like @Myfrotho704_ said the environment is pretty good for tc development so I’m not surprised we’re seeing these start to randomly pop up. I expect to see many more runs like this.
Happy hour sure went out with a bang.
Yeah instead of that run showing it going over Central America and into the GOM it formed in the Caribbean and was already strong going into the GOM that would be a bad solution and would probably end up being on the stronger end.
EURO develops from energy in the pacific. Long ways to go with this one.
18z EPS still not backing down
