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Tropical 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Discussion

Is that a possibilty?

You didn't specifiy, so...

Landfall at Morgan City - Houma?
Yes since there is so much uncertainty this far out. Scroll up to see how there are models/projections to the East of New Orleans to Corpus Christi, Texas. Landfall at Morgan City - Houma puts New Orleans on the bad side of the hurricane.


Category 2?
I wouldn't rule it out. It is better to prepare for a stronger storm and breath a sigh of relief when it isn't that strong than to prepare for a weak storm and be surprised when it is stronger than you expected.
 
Stick around for good information in this Forum. If this does transition from potential to something definite, there might be a specifc discussion thread created just for it.
 
Usually this time of year the tropical systems are lopsided to the eastern side. So the systems that would impact Baton Rouge the most would be landfalling systems generally west of Houma, then all the way back to Galveson, TX. I guess it depends how quick the storm leaves the Bay of Campeche.
 
000
ABNT20 KNHC 061143
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Jun 6 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Cristobal, centered over the central Gulf of Mexico.

An area of low pressure is expected to develop along a cold front a
few hundred miles east or northeast of Bermuda by the middle of
next week. Some development of this system is possible while it
moves northwestward or west-northwestward over the western Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg
 
Lol no one commenting how the 12z GFS sent us another cane out of the Caribbean in the short term? What a POS of a model. No other model suggests this
 
18z GFS would a major disaster for Guatemala that just saw 30” of rain. Good thing it’s prob wrong with formation and track.
 
Lol no one commenting how the 12z GFS sent us another cane out of the Caribbean in the short term? What a POS of a model. No other model suggests this

I mean the EPS didn’t completely disagree. Still not a ton of support though. Just something to keep an eye on
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I believe we still have over 2 weeks for the D record Dolly is next

Meanwhile the Eastern Pacific which usually builds a lead in the early season is completely dead

Probably La Nina kicking in.


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Model support has been pretty lackluster but legitimately non zero with this feature. It's likely going to be the only game in town for a while plus it's the western Caribbean in June, arguably the most climatologically favored area of the basin for tropical cyclone development at this time of the year.
 
Regardless of development, Guatemala and areas nearby could see some damage from this tropical wave after all the flooding they just had.
 
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