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2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Discussion

Ethan80963

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GFS was back to the east side of Florida at 0z as well. So far out though it's just viewing entertainment at the moment.
I actually think that this one is within 5 days. The time frame for those EPS probs was for 24-72 hours out and this was the euro from tonight showing some sort of very weak disturbance on the eastern side of Florida as well. We'll have to see though because although the Euro and EPS see it not many other models do. Most have the moisture and energy associated with it but don't form it like the Euro suit does. Nothing major again just a very weak rainmaker at best. The GFS looks to be sniffing something out in the lr but I don't see the GEFS jumping on board that much but I must give it to the GFS it has been very consistent when showing this system.
Screenshot 2020-05-23 at 4.44.07 AM.png
 

Myfrotho704_

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The Central American gyre is starting to show up nicely, very favorable look with a nice 200mb VP anomaly, that’s quite the signal right there 0B1BB326-99FA-46B4-95E5-7C007CF923BF.gif
Quite a impressive signal here to with anticyclonic flow at 200mb which is favorable for TC development, it’s no wonder why the GFS spinned up that storm in the LR, it originated from the CAG, wouldn’t shock me if we see something from the CAG soon 0E49A6E7-7C0C-4E61-A478-E714247A747A.png EB221D41-D66B-4F96-AD8D-31AD9F305D84.png
 

Ethan80963

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Looking at the 06z GFS you can definitely tell that the ingredients are there in the Caribean lots of moisture and lots of cyclonic energy floating around. And still was able to pop a system towards the end of the run but it wouldn't surprise me to see it try to pop a system earlier due to the factors that are in place.
Screenshot 2020-05-23 at 7.08.49 AM.png
 

Myfrotho704_

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That’s a big yikes, CCKW interaction soon... remember CAGs can develop something either in the GOM or pacific side, at this point there’s so much that could support a TC developing around early June but where is the question and something we likely won’t know for a good min, but given CCKW interaction, CAG and boiling GOM temps, something is possible 9414116B-5D3D-4FC5-8E3D-8A358E1B6023.png 496E197A-99F5-44A0-9F11-FA0BAE55462B.png
 
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Ethan80963

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I know I keep saying it but it amazes me how consistent the GFS has been with that tc in the long range even if it doesn’t happen it has been really consistent. Here is the 12z run. The GFS has this system start getting its act together around day 10 but meanders around in Central America for a few days before entering the GOM.
Day 10
96614228-DEB9-40DC-9511-ED30D7063D50.jpeg
Hr 366
226D270D-C0FE-4D38-ACB7-2089FBCD6F92.jpeg
 

pcbjr

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I know I keep saying it but it amazes me how consistent the GFS has been with that tc in the long range even if it doesn’t happen it has been really consistent. Here is the 12z run. The GFS has this system start getting its act together around day 10 but meanders around in Central America for a few days before entering the GOM.
Day 10
View attachment 41938
Hr 366
View attachment 41939
Yes ... I for one have been watching that and glad to see you've seen it too. Solace ... it is a long way out there and it is very early in the year for something that wrapped to actually happen ... I for one am hoping we see none this year. I even spent $10K taking down big trees near my house and buying 3 weeks worth of dehydrated food ... like maybe karma will thank me for spending money ... :eek:
 

Ethan80963

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Happy hour sure went out with a bang.View attachment 42007
Yeah instead of that run showing it going over Central America and into the GOM it formed in the Caribbean and was already strong going into the GOM that would be a bad solution and would probably end up being on the stronger end.
 

BufordWX

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It’s the GEFS and 300+ hours out, but that’s quite a few members showing a GOM storm in the very long range. A0C1044A-A08E-4FE9-8C4B-3047139F792A.png
 

Ethan80963

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Ethan80963

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I think this day 10 threat is definitely something to watch. It has quite a bit of support. I think that one thing that could inhibit this threat would be a transition to the Pacific. Other than that I see that the GFS, GEFS, EPS, ECMWF, and CMC have it. So it’s at least worth monitoring how it develops over the next several days.
 

Myfrotho704_

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Looking at the 500mb heights, I’d favor a pacific TC , although that trough that digs down in the east needs to be watched as it could serve as a weakness A677F9C5-953C-4D44-804F-266BF51D9A13.png 263414B7-8CD4-44FD-82DB-C98BE3ED7C6F.png
 

BufordWX

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Probably doesn’t mean a lot this far out, but the 12z runs of the GEFS and GEPS were both quite active at day 10. Does anyone know what the EPS is showing during this time?
GEFS:
9B1FB80F-F4EA-4102-A38C-7EC1E8B3650B.png
GEPS:
0185D5A0-CDA6-4092-8DF1-FFD26F7E9CB8.png
 
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