Tropical 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Discussion

[Brent]

May have to watch the old frontal boundary this weekend we actually have pretty good agreement between the Euro and the GFS

 

[NCSNOW]

I aint feeling a higher than normal landfalling season. Not even a higher than normal active[named season].

 

[Ethan80963]

 

[Ethan80963]

EPS even has some support

 

[Ethan80963]

 

[Ethan80963]

Fwiw the ICON

 

[Ethan80963]

 

[CyclonicFury]

 

[Ethan80963]

I know it’s the CMC so take like a grain of salt

 

[Ollie Williams]

The probability of tropical system dropped slightly on the 00z EPS.
12z

00z

 

[pcbjr]

The probability of tropical system dropped slightly on the 00z EPS.
12z
View attachment 41208
00z
View attachment 41209

I know the waters are warm, but it's just a tad early for dynamics to set up correctly ... and June/July are still not "optimal", though IMHO, a no'cane season would be ... (optimal) ...

 

[Ethan80963]

 

[GaWx]

The good news is that even if there's early development, there's little correlation to the average level of activity during the meat of the season. Hopefully, this kind of system and offshore track dominates.

 

[Ethan80963]

The good news is that even if there's early development, there's little correlation to the average level of activity during the meat of the season. Hopefully, this kind of system and offshore track dominates.

I’m really wanting to track something other than severe weather so a small off shore system like this will certainly be ok with me.

 

[pcbjr]

The good news is that even if there's early development, there's little correlation to the average level of activity during the meat of the season. Hopefully, this kind of system and offshore track dominates.

said much the same in here somewhere today ... ?

 

[BirdManDoomW]

Code Orange. That’s early. It wants to develop

 

[Snowfan]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 121403
TWOAT

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 AM EDT Tue May 12 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential
for subtropical development this weekend northeast of the Bahamas.

1. An area of low pressure is expected to develop this weekend
a couple hundred miles northeast of the Bahamas. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for this system to acquire some
subtropical characteristics as it moves northeastward through
Sunday. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system
will be issued by 9 PM EDT Tuesday, or earlier, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Latto

Here we go.

 

[Brent]

Here we go.

so it begins... these May storms are becoming somewhat regular(3rd year in a row if it forms)

Arthur is the first name

 

[Ethan80963]

Here the latest EPS on it. Looks more active than the 00z run.

 

[Brent]

Code Red

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
730 PM EDT Tue May 12 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential
for subtropical development this weekend northeast of the Bahamas.

1. A broad area of low pressure is expected to develop late this
week or early this weekend a couple of hundred miles north of
the Bahamas. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual
development of this system, and a subtropical depression or storm
is likely to form this weekend while it moves northeastward over
the western Atlantic. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on
this system will be issued by 9 AM EDT Wednesday, or earlier, if
necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi