Brent
Member
May have to watch the old frontal boundary this weekend we actually have pretty good agreement between the Euro and the GFS
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Tropical 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Discussion
- Thread starter Snowfan
- Start date
NCSNOW
Member
I aint feeling a higher than normal landfalling season. Not even a higher than normal active[named season].
EPS even has some support
Fwiw the ICON
I know it’s the CMC so take like a grain of salt
The probability of tropical system dropped slightly on the 00z EPS.
12z
00z
12z
00z
pcbjr
Member
I know the waters are warm, but it's just a tad early for dynamics to set up correctly ... and June/July are still not "optimal", though IMHO, a no'cane season would be ... (optimal) ...
The good news is that even if there's early development, there's little correlation to the average level of activity during the meat of the season. Hopefully, this kind of system and offshore track dominates.
I’m really wanting to track something other than severe weather so a small off shore system like this will certainly be ok with me.
pcbjr
Member
said much the same in here somewhere today ... ?
Code Orange. That’s early. It wants to develop
Here we go.
Brent
Member
so it begins... these May storms are becoming somewhat regular(3rd year in a row if it forms)
Arthur is the first name
Here the latest EPS on it. Looks more active than the 00z run.
Brent
Member
Code Red
Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
730 PM EDT Tue May 12 2020
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential
for subtropical development this weekend northeast of the Bahamas.
1. A broad area of low pressure is expected to develop late this
week or early this weekend a couple of hundred miles north of
the Bahamas. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual
development of this system, and a subtropical depression or storm
is likely to form this weekend while it moves northeastward over
the western Atlantic. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on
this system will be issued by 9 AM EDT Wednesday, or earlier, if
necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
730 PM EDT Tue May 12 2020
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential
for subtropical development this weekend northeast of the Bahamas.
1. A broad area of low pressure is expected to develop late this
week or early this weekend a couple of hundred miles north of
the Bahamas. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual
development of this system, and a subtropical depression or storm
is likely to form this weekend while it moves northeastward over
the western Atlantic. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on
this system will be issued by 9 AM EDT Wednesday, or earlier, if
necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
Here’s the new 00z run
Just the GFS doing GFS things. ? It can stop now, wrong direction.
(5 run trend)
(5 run trend)
Shaggy
Member
One of the earlier runs of the euro had this getting blocked and hitting Georgia/Forida area.
The good news about this is that models have cooled the SE a lot for the 6-10 day period due to interaction of this W Atlantic ST low and an E US mid latitude trough. Whereas before it was looking well above normal, that period has cooled to near normal.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
We really don't need hurricanes this year forcing people to evacuate and to be held up in shelters with a bunch of other folks with the rona going around.
Well with no sports going on there should be extra arenas. And movie theaters. And many more options than usual to shelter.
smast16
Member
Because that worked out well in New Orleans during Katrina....
Don’t cherry pick one arena that was in a bowl. Plenty of options inland.
SWB
Member
Brent
Member
18z GFS had a fiery start to the official season. Bertha is next
modernweenie modernweenie modernweenie
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Dawgdaze22
Member
Shaggy
Member
Gfs did good picking up arthur early on. Let's see if it can do the same with bertha
Brent
Member
Yeah, they are calling for a potential big season....I REALLY don't like the large range they use. If you are going to make a prediction, then make a prediction without such a big range....jmo
Interesting graphic from Tomer Burg based on Noaa's outlooks.
EPS looks like there might be a few areas to look at around day 10
Also something to watch the GFS has a disturbance in the Caribbean that has repeatedly shown up the last few runs in the 13-15 day time frame. But it is the GFS so take it as you will.
EPS chances of tropical depression formation and tropical storm formation
