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Tropical 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Discussion

127
ABNT20 KNHC 312349
TWOAT

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
750 PM EDT Sun May 31 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential for
tropical cyclone formation over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

The remnants of Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Amanda are currently
located over northern Guatemala. This system is forecast to move
northwestward to northward within a broader area of disturbed
weather, and it could emerge over the southeastern Bay of Campeche
on Monday. If the remnants move back over water, environmental
conditions appear conducive to support some development, and a new
tropical depression could form while the system moves little through
the middle of this week. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation,
heavy rainfall is likely to continue over portions of southern
Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador, Belize, and western Honduras during
the next few days. For additional information on the rainfall
threat, see products from your national meteorological service. The
next update on this system will be in the first regularly scheduled
Tropical Weather Outlook of the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane season,
which will be issued by 2 AM EDT Monday morning.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven
 
When will we have a clearer understanding of where this system could be headed? I worry about the short time frame.
 
When will we have a clearer understanding of where this system could be headed? I worry about the short time frame.
My guess on when we will know is after it forms and leaves the Bay of Campeche. Until then it could just meander down there for days possibly or it could leave and head towards land almost immediately. But we won’t know until it happens. That’s why the models are so split on timing, while they all try to figure out what’s gonna happen once this disturbance forms over the Bay of Campeche.
 
When will we have a clearer understanding of where this system could be headed? I worry about the short time frame.


I don't know your individual situation in New Orleans, but what will you need to do if it is announced on Thursday afternoon that a Category 2 hurricane is expected to make landfall near New Orleans on Monday night (June 8) - Tuesday morning (June 9)?
 
I don't know your individual situation in New Orleans, but what will you need to do if it is announced on Thursday afternoon that a Category 2 hurricane is expected to make landfall near New Orleans on Monday night (June 8) - Tuesday morning (June 9)?

Is that a possibilty?
 
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