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Tropical 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Discussion

12z GFS has this vague but possible setup.....Genesis is from African waves coming off the next couple of days....

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12Z EPS says the SE should be wary about that midmonth period I've been wary about: these (other than the TC in the Gulf) are from a wave now coming off the African coast

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The reason the member TCs are more threatening on this run to the east coast and Bahamas is that the WAR is further west on the 12Z vs the 0Z EPS. As often occurs with ensemble means due to often going back and forth, the WAR may very well go back east on the next run and reduce the threat to the CONUS and Bahamas back down to where it was. But that remains to be seen. If instead 0Z holds serve or goes even further west with the WAR, that could mean trouble for CONUS/Bahamas. (Bermuda at risk, regardless imo).

I'm a bit worried it will remain or maybe come even further west because we're in La Nina and also because the last few years due to very warm Indonesian waters have lead to a further west WAR/SE ridge/warmer SE even in El Nino. It has been relentless and has really weakened our winters as we all know.
 
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12z GFS Para.....not as exciting as the last one....but difficult for me to believe this would not spin up......same timeframe we've been watching.....12z GFS had similar.....

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It would take quite awhile, but this is what MAY threaten some portion of the CONUS/Bahamas around midmonth per the 12Z EPS if the WAR is too strong/extends too far west in ~7-10 days thus not allowing for a safe recurve. In recent years, the WAR/SER have been quite strong thanks largely to very warm Indonesian waters per a Maxar pro met. Combine that with +AMO and La Nina, and there's a risk that the WAR will be strong during the crucial 7-10 day period, which may keep it from recurving safely. We'll see.
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A tropical wave is expected to emerge off the coast of Africa on
Wednesday and merge with a disturbance centered a couple of hundred
miles southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands in the next day or so.
Gradual development of this system is then possible, and this system
could become a tropical depression by this weekend while it moves
slowly westward over the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

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GaWx said:
It would take quite awhile, but this is what MAY threaten some portion of the CONUS/Bahamas around midmonth per the 12Z EPS if the WAR is too strong/extends too far west in ~7-10 days thus not allowing for a safe recurve. In recent years, the WAR/SER have been quite strong thanks largely to very warm Indonesian waters per a Maxar pro met. Combine that with +AMO and La Nina, and there's a risk that the WAR will be strong during the crucial 7-10 day period, which may keep it from recurving safely. We'll see.
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A tropical wave is expected to emerge off the coast of Africa on
Wednesday and merge with a disturbance centered a couple of hundred
miles southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands in the next day or so.
Gradual development of this system is then possible, and this system
could become a tropical depression by this weekend while it moves
slowly westward over the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

View attachment 47895
Click to expand...
Icon and CMC had the merge for about 3 days now.
 
How long till we are in a recurve pattern? Or is everything pretty consistent going west?


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Dawgdaze22 said:
How long till we are in a recurve pattern? Or is everything pretty consistent going west?
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Click to expand...
We are currently in a recurve pattern and due west pattern but neither pose a threat to the US mainland as you can see what the current storms are doing.
 
Holy WAR! But his is just the JMA, which may be overdoing it. Interestingly, because this has the low so far east, it is actually recurving in front of the very strong WAR. The JMA is not a good model though the CMC is kind of similar with this idea

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Henry2326 said:
Unfortunately, its performed poorly so far this year....hopefully, this is correct, but I doubt it.
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Hopefully but it is up to the strength/position of the WAR as well as the longitude of the surface low/TC and where that is in relation to the axis of the WAR. Models have it do one of three main things: recurve east of the WAR in the middle of the ocean, recurve west of the WAR but OTS, and hit Bahamas and possibly CONUS while recurving west of the WAR.
 
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GaWx said:
Hopefully but it is up to the strength/position of the WAR as well as the longitude of the surface low/TC and where that is in relation to the axis of the WAR. Models have it do one of three main things: recurve east of the WAR in the middle of the ocean, recurve west of the WAR but OTS, and hit Bahamas and possibly CONUS while recurving west of the WAR.
Click to expand...
That days 8-12 pattern on most models is really toon close for comfort. If the systems coming off of africa now stay weak they have a good chance to sneak under the weakness in the central atlantic and be near the islands by S10 (see 12z Euro). With the potential competition between vorticity centers and extended trough I would favor at least slower development through D5.
 
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