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Tropical 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Discussion

SD said:
That days 8-12 pattern on most models is really toon close for comfort. If the systems coming off of africa now stay weak they have a good chance to sneak under the weakness in the central atlantic and be near the islands by S10 (see 12z Euro). With the potential competition between vorticity centers and extended trough I would favor at least slower development through D5.
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Slow development has been the theme this year.


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18z GFS para
Only through hour 240......waiting for the rest of it....Its at it again....
Looks similar to 12z Euro on the same day, 9/11....

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GaWx said:
Holy WAR! But his is just the JMA, which may be overdoing it. Interestingly, because this has the low so far east, it is actually recurving in front of the very strong WAR. The JMA is not a good model though the CMC is kind of similar with this idea

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This isn’t so far fetched at the moment. I know it’s the JMA but the GFS has been hinting at this solution as well. With well above normal temps next week across the eastern seaboard. Especially in the northeast. Take it with verbatim.



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CADEffect said:
This isn’t so far fetched at the moment. I know it’s the JMA but the GFS has been hinting at this solution as well. With well above normal temps next week across the eastern seaboard. Especially in the northeast. Take it with verbatim.



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That’s got Hugo, Hazel and Fran type tracks written all over it.


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NC would be destroyed!!. Everything is having a real hard time this season. Cant imagine any of those storms repeating.
 
I’ve been warning about mid Sept over the last few days for a potentially dangerous setup for the SE soon after the cooler Canadian air comes in either from an MDR wave or from a homegrown (similar to Diana of 1984). The worry is increased due to the combo of the very warm Indonesian waters, La Niña, and the +AMO, all of which increase the chance for the WAR to be strong with the W extension pretty far west and further west than many of the model runs were showing. Well, lo and behold, look at the ominous looking 12Z GEFS at 288 (for Sept 14), an almost textbook dangerous pattern at H5 along with the big NE US high. Then look below at the individual members for that time and then for 3 days later (Sept 17). By the end of the run, a whopping 7 of 21 members (33%) hit various parts of the SE with a H by Sep 18 o_O :

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Edit: I just created a new thread for this

Tropical - Wave just off Africa as of 9/2/20: something to monitor in SE for midmonth

Because there is some chance that this impacts the SE in ~2 weeks (see my next post) even though it could still end up recurving well OTS or bypass the SE and hit the NE, I've decided to go ahead and add a new thread for this wave that just emerged from Africa. This wave is not Invest 91L (which...
southernwx.com southernwx.com
 
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Better hope nothing comes up the eastern gulf after a large chunk of western NC saw 10-20” last month. It would be retired if something like Ivan came.
 
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