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Tropical 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Discussion

Models can't get a handle on anything this far out. Doesn't matter anymore if it's winter storms or hurricanes.
 
GaWx said:
I don’t understand the “yikes” as regards that 12Z Para GFS as those all recurve well OTS. However, I do think the following 18Z GEFS map deserves a bit of a “yikes” patternwise:

View attachment 47832
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Yeah, definitely a more "yikes" look than some other models, if we get that height maxima over Quebec vs the Netherlands. Things could look a little worse for us in that scenario. Luckily, taking verbatim only one member looks threatening.
gfs-ensemble-all-avg-exatl-z500_anom-0279200.png
storm_tracks_20200831_18_384.jpg
 
0Z GEFS: no member TC hits on the CONUS through entire run. Hard to beat that. But will it verify? We'll see.

Edit: 18Z Para GFS: puts a complete stop to the runs with threatening TCs to the SE.

This amazing season would get that much more amazing if we were to go from the memorable and very busy jly/August to the opposite in Sept. I'm not predicting that at all, but it is in the realm of possibilities given the latest model projections for the first half of Sep. If I get time, I'm going to hunt for La Nina seasons like this.

Edit: I couldn't find anything similar back to 1950. I'll go back further.

Maybe 1893: about the best analog I could find going way back to 1852:

 
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GaWx said:
0Z GEFS: no member TC hits on the CONUS through entire run. Hard to beat that. But will it verify? We'll see.

Edit: 18Z Para GFS: puts a complete stop to the runs with threatening TCs to the SE.

This amazing season would get that much more amazing if we were to go from the memorable August to the opposite in Sept. I'm not predicting that at all, but it is in the realm of possibilities given the latest model projections for the first half of Sep. If I get time, I'm going to hunt for La Nina seasons like this.
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Let's hope these cold fronts saves us
 
GaWx said:
0Z GEFS: no member TC hits on the CONUS through entire run. Hard to beat that. But will it verify? We'll see.

Edit: 18Z Para GFS: puts a complete stop to the runs with threatening TCs to the SE.

This amazing season would get that much more amazing if we were to go from the memorable and very busy jly/August to the opposite in Sept. I'm not predicting that at all, but it is in the realm of possibilities given the latest model projections for the first half of Sep. If I get time, I'm going to hunt for La Nina seasons like this.

Edit: I couldn't find anything similar back to 1950. I'll go back further.

Maybe 1893: about the best analog I could find going way back to 1852:

Click to expand...
I thought a hurricane outbreak was coming?
 
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