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Tropical 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Discussion

GFS gets us halfway through the 6 names at least by next week this is the same GFS that did not see Hanna or Laura or Marco or Nana or Omar at least at some points if this month is really busy we might be into greeks before October

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00z Euro, 00z ICON, 00z CMC and 06z GFS ...... appears they agree on 9/10 for the first storm, but Euro is faster which could have a different result due to timing.

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Even guys like Webber have shown a blocking pattern on Twitter but all models have OTS. Still lots of time


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NoSnowATL said:
That’s the thing that makes me curious, TWC keeps showing the ridges to block the N movement but the models all recurve. Maybe they all find the holes? ?‍♂️
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TCs have a strong tendency to move poleward. All they really need is a slight weakness in an overall ridging pattern to the north as that’s often enough to get it to recurve well OTS. Doing that is almost like a default.

Edit: What I’ve found over the years is that a new 500 mb ridge being established to the N is the type of thing that most easily keeps a TC from its typical recurve for at least several days. Older ridges are more apt to allow enough weakness to allow for an easier recurve. After a certain point like a few days, an individual upper ridge will often start to weaken. That’s when recurve potential increases. Sometimes though a second upper ridge then forms thus then at least temporarily halting the recurve with a likely leftward bend.

**2nd Edit: I’m still a bit nervous about how mid Sept will play out due to a combo of near record warm W Pacific waters, La Niña, and the +AMO. If not the SE, the NE US may have a threat.

Even if no MDR wave gets close, don’t discount the chance for something homegrown that can turn out to be dangerous in this environment. When there are strong highs to the north, that is the JB named “ridge over troubled water” pattern because the strong high leads to low level convergence to their south, which tends to lead to rising air because the low level air piles up and it has to go somewhere. This rising air then causes low pressure to form at the surface.
 
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