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Tropical 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Discussion

12z GFS has this vague but possible setup.....Genesis is from African waves coming off the next couple of days....

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12Z EPS says the SE should be wary about that midmonth period I've been wary about: these (other than the TC in the Gulf) are from a wave now coming off the African coast

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The reason the member TCs are more threatening on this run to the east coast and Bahamas is that the WAR is further west on the 12Z vs the 0Z EPS. As often occurs with ensemble means due to often going back and forth, the WAR may very well go back east on the next run and reduce the threat to the CONUS and Bahamas back down to where it was. But that remains to be seen. If instead 0Z holds serve or goes even further west with the WAR, that could mean trouble for CONUS/Bahamas. (Bermuda at risk, regardless imo).

I'm a bit worried it will remain or maybe come even further west because we're in La Nina and also because the last few years due to very warm Indonesian waters have lead to a further west WAR/SE ridge/warmer SE even in El Nino. It has been relentless and has really weakened our winters as we all know.
 
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12z GFS Para.....not as exciting as the last one....but difficult for me to believe this would not spin up......same timeframe we've been watching.....12z GFS had similar.....

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It would take quite awhile, but this is what MAY threaten some portion of the CONUS/Bahamas around midmonth per the 12Z EPS if the WAR is too strong/extends too far west in ~7-10 days thus not allowing for a safe recurve. In recent years, the WAR/SER have been quite strong thanks largely to very warm Indonesian waters per a Maxar pro met. Combine that with +AMO and La Nina, and there's a risk that the WAR will be strong during the crucial 7-10 day period, which may keep it from recurving safely. We'll see.
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A tropical wave is expected to emerge off the coast of Africa on
Wednesday and merge with a disturbance centered a couple of hundred
miles southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands in the next day or so.
Gradual development of this system is then possible, and this system
could become a tropical depression by this weekend while it moves
slowly westward over the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

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GaWx said:
It would take quite awhile, but this is what MAY threaten some portion of the CONUS/Bahamas around midmonth per the 12Z EPS if the WAR is too strong/extends too far west in ~7-10 days thus not allowing for a safe recurve. In recent years, the WAR/SER have been quite strong thanks largely to very warm Indonesian waters per a Maxar pro met. Combine that with +AMO and La Nina, and there's a risk that the WAR will be strong during the crucial 7-10 day period, which may keep it from recurving safely. We'll see.
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A tropical wave is expected to emerge off the coast of Africa on
Wednesday and merge with a disturbance centered a couple of hundred
miles southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands in the next day or so.
Gradual development of this system is then possible, and this system
could become a tropical depression by this weekend while it moves
slowly westward over the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

View attachment 47895
Click to expand...
Icon and CMC had the merge for about 3 days now.
 
How long till we are in a recurve pattern? Or is everything pretty consistent going west?


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Dawgdaze22 said:
How long till we are in a recurve pattern? Or is everything pretty consistent going west?
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Click to expand...
We are currently in a recurve pattern and due west pattern but neither pose a threat to the US mainland as you can see what the current storms are doing.
 
Holy WAR! But his is just the JMA, which may be overdoing it. Interestingly, because this has the low so far east, it is actually recurving in front of the very strong WAR. The JMA is not a good model though the CMC is kind of similar with this idea

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Nothing is going to be more scary than major hurricane omega coming in November
 
Henry2326 said:
Unfortunately, its performed poorly so far this year....hopefully, this is correct, but I doubt it.
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Hopefully but it is up to the strength/position of the WAR as well as the longitude of the surface low/TC and where that is in relation to the axis of the WAR. Models have it do one of three main things: recurve east of the WAR in the middle of the ocean, recurve west of the WAR but OTS, and hit Bahamas and possibly CONUS while recurving west of the WAR.
 
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GaWx said:
Hopefully but it is up to the strength/position of the WAR as well as the longitude of the surface low/TC and where that is in relation to the axis of the WAR. Models have it do one of three main things: recurve east of the WAR in the middle of the ocean, recurve west of the WAR but OTS, and hit Bahamas and possibly CONUS while recurving west of the WAR.
Click to expand...
That days 8-12 pattern on most models is really toon close for comfort. If the systems coming off of africa now stay weak they have a good chance to sneak under the weakness in the central atlantic and be near the islands by S10 (see 12z Euro). With the potential competition between vorticity centers and extended trough I would favor at least slower development through D5.
 
SD said:
That days 8-12 pattern on most models is really toon close for comfort. If the systems coming off of africa now stay weak they have a good chance to sneak under the weakness in the central atlantic and be near the islands by S10 (see 12z Euro). With the potential competition between vorticity centers and extended trough I would favor at least slower development through D5.
Click to expand...

Slow development has been the theme this year.


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18z GFS para
Only through hour 240......waiting for the rest of it....Its at it again....
Looks similar to 12z Euro on the same day, 9/11....

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GaWx said:
Holy WAR! But his is just the JMA, which may be overdoing it. Interestingly, because this has the low so far east, it is actually recurving in front of the very strong WAR. The JMA is not a good model though the CMC is kind of similar with this idea

View attachment 47896
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This isn’t so far fetched at the moment. I know it’s the JMA but the GFS has been hinting at this solution as well. With well above normal temps next week across the eastern seaboard. Especially in the northeast. Take it with verbatim.



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CADEffect said:
This isn’t so far fetched at the moment. I know it’s the JMA but the GFS has been hinting at this solution as well. With well above normal temps next week across the eastern seaboard. Especially in the northeast. Take it with verbatim.



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Click to expand...

That’s got Hugo, Hazel and Fran type tracks written all over it.


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NC would be destroyed!!. Everything is having a real hard time this season. Cant imagine any of those storms repeating.
 
I’ve been warning about mid Sept over the last few days for a potentially dangerous setup for the SE soon after the cooler Canadian air comes in either from an MDR wave or from a homegrown (similar to Diana of 1984). The worry is increased due to the combo of the very warm Indonesian waters, La Niña, and the +AMO, all of which increase the chance for the WAR to be strong with the W extension pretty far west and further west than many of the model runs were showing. Well, lo and behold, look at the ominous looking 12Z GEFS at 288 (for Sept 14), an almost textbook dangerous pattern at H5 along with the big NE US high. Then look below at the individual members for that time and then for 3 days later (Sept 17). By the end of the run, a whopping 7 of 21 members (33%) hit various parts of the SE with a H by Sep 18 o_O :

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Edit: I just created a new thread for this

Tropical - Wave just off Africa as of 9/2/20: something to monitor in SE for midmonth

Because there is some chance that this impacts the SE in ~2 weeks (see my next post) even though it could still end up recurving well OTS or bypass the SE and hit the NE, I've decided to go ahead and add a new thread for this wave that just emerged from Africa. This wave is not Invest 91L (which...
southernwx.com
 
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Better hope nothing comes up the eastern gulf after a large chunk of western NC saw 10-20” last month. It would be retired if something like Ivan came.
 
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