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Tropical 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Discussion

Today's 12z ECMWF remains pretty stedfast in developing this wave that'll come off the coast of Africa in a few days. It has a sacrificial wave immediately out ahead of it that should moisten its nearby environment and the suppressed Kelvin Wave over the basin should be leaving the Atlantic in a few days. There is certainly a window of opportunity to see another tropical cyclone here.

ecmwf_uv850_vort_eatl_fh120-240.gif


In all likelihood however, unless this becomes a powerful hurricane east of the Antilles, it'll have to plow through a massive wall of shear associated w/ a large basin-scale TUTT if it tries to lift north of the Greater Antilles and Puerto Rico and make a run for the SE US. You can thank the increased irrotational outflow from the upcoming surge in Eastern Pacific tropical cyclone activity for that. Regardless of what happens w/ this particular system, it's only a matter of time before the Atlantic goes hog wild.

1596742352439.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
Today's 12z ECMWF remains pretty stedfast in developing this wave that'll come off the coast of Africa in a few days. It has a sacrificial wave immediately out ahead of it that should moisten its nearby environment and the suppressed Kelvin Wave over the basin should be leaving the Atlantic in a few days. There is certainly a window of opportunity to see another tropical cyclone here.

View attachment 46145


In all likelihood however, unless this becomes a powerful hurricane east of the Antilles, it'll have to plow through a massive wall of shear associated w/ a large basin-scale TUTT if it tries to lift north of the Greater Antilles and Puerto Rico and make a run for the SE US. You can thank the increased irrotational outflow from the upcoming surge in Eastern Pacific tropical cyclone activity for that. Regardless of what happens w/ this particular system, it's only a matter of time before the Atlantic goes hog wild.

View attachment 46146
Click to expand...
12z ICON still hanging with it....

ScreenshotCapture_2020_08_06_16_13_23_538.jpg
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yahoo News also just published an article on the ongoing Atlantic Hurricane Season, and yours truly (me) is in it .

https://www.yahoo.com/news/weather-experts-issue-most-threatening-024100977.html
Click to expand...

Congrats. Seeing grad student from this weather community get recognized in the news for something they've been working towards is a really fantastic and joyful event. I thank you for sharing your expertise on this forum, and hopefully your presence serves as inspiration for the younger weather nuts and weenies that wish to pursue a similar path in the sciences.
 
Webberweather53 said:
I have to admit, the ICON didn’t do too shabby with Isaias’s genesis and it agrees with the European ensemble. May be a brief window of opportunity in the eastern Atlantic as the suppressed kelvin wave gets out of the way.
Click to expand...
18z GFS hanging with both ICON and Euro....nothing to write home about but dejavu....3ba61b49-ada8-42df-8934-b81b66710e97.gif
 
Shaggy said:
Yeah someone should have been fired over that nonsense
Click to expand...

I thought I was the only one that thought it was a shameless grab for ratings by NBC executives. No one will get fired cause it was probably a group decision, and I've worked on enough corporate litigation discoveries to know that the NBC executive team was probably circle-jerking each other in e-mails when they first thought-up the name. They were so excited about it that they didn't even wait until a serious hurricane was bearing down on an area with a many people that would have to risk exposing themselves to Covid-19 at a shelter. You got to be first I guess.
 
Looks like we got a new lemon in the Atlantic again. The development chances are very low right now though.

B34B5001-E97A-46FD-810E-4503750B8B28.png
1. A tropical wave is located several hundred miles west-southwest of
the Cabo Verde Islands. Slow development of this system is
possible during the next couple of days as it moves slowly westward.
After that time, environmental conditions are expected to become
less conducive for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
 
BufordWX said:
Looks like we got a new lemon in the Atlantic again. The development chances are very low right now though.

View attachment 46175
1. A tropical wave is located several hundred miles west-southwest of
the Cabo Verde Islands. Slow development of this system is
possible during the next couple of days as it moves slowly westward.
After that time, environmental conditions are expected to become
less conducive for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
Click to expand...
That's Grapefruit
 
BufordWX said:
Looks like we got a new lemon in the Atlantic again. The development chances are very low right now though.

View attachment 46175
1. A tropical wave is located several hundred miles west-southwest of
the Cabo Verde Islands. Slow development of this system is
possible during the next couple of days as it moves slowly westward.
After that time, environmental conditions are expected to become
less conducive for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
Click to expand...

Yeah this is actually the leading wave out ahead of our area of interest that's emerging off the coast of Africa. This particular system has had pretty persistent, consolidated deep convection of late despite a suppressed Kelvin wave moving overhead
 
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