Tropical 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Discussion

[Henry2326]

Still going up... damn
View attachment 46080

2005
27 named storms
15 hurricanes
7 majors
ACE rating 250

IN 2005, CSU did the same in August, raising their forecast
From 15 named storms to 22
From 8 hurricanes to 9 hurricanes
From 4 majors to 5 majors

Why?
Persistent high pressure over southeastern US
Northeastward displacement and amplification of the ITCZ over the eastern Pacifc
Above average sea surface temps in the Gulf of Mexico
These factors reduced vertical shear
High pressure area steered storms into the Gulf
ENSO was in neutral phase
The loop current, typically in the Yucatan Peninsula, propagated northward, enhancing ocean heat content to all 3 hurricanes and was partially responsible for extreme intensities.

 

[Brent]

modernweenie modernweenie modernweenie

 

[Webberweather53]

Lmao the 12z ICON develops two tropical cyclones in the eastern MDR next week



????

 

[Henry2326]

Lmao the 12z ICON develops two tropical cyclones in the eastern MDR next week

View attachment 46082

Geez....looks like it begins this weekend as a starting point.

 

[Henry2326]

CMC has it on 13th, but loses it.

 

[Henry2326]

GFS still thrilled with development in 18-20 period.....6 runs now, I think.......something trying to come across Atantic in this period also....

 

[Henry2326]

EURO hanging with ICON to this spot.....scary aligned....weekend into next week...

 

[Webberweather53]

EURO hanging with ICON to this spot.....scary aligned....weekend into next week...

View attachment 46091

This is the threat for development I’d be more worried about. The GFS western Caribbean and Gulf crap is not only further out but just complete garbage. Never trust the LR GFS when it spins up TCs off S America convection especially when it’s alone in that solution.

 

[Shaggy]

This is the threat for development I’d be more worried about. The GFS western Caribbean and Gulf crap is not only further out but just complete garbage. Never trust the LR GFS when it spins up TCs off S America convection especially when it’s alone in that solution.

Icon sniffed out Isias pretty early.
We will see if it hits again.

 

[Webberweather53]

Icon sniffed out Isias pretty early.
We will see if it hits again.

I suspect given the Euro ensemble support it is onto something.

 

[Henry2326]

GFS coming along for the 12th, but loses it like CMC.
Shows 18-20 again too

 

[Shaggy]

I suspect given the Euro ensemble support it is onto something.

Still showing it and it looks good down around 8-9N already. Wouldnt be surprised if that becomes an invest in the next 24-48 hours the way this year has been going so far.

 

[Shaggy]

Not sure which energy the icon is hinting at. If it's the spin down at 30W or the new wave by the cape verdes

 

[Henry2326]

Not sure which energy the icon is hinting at. If it's the spin down at 30W or the new wave by the cape verdes

Based on the 18z ICON, I think its the one down at 30W....and it should develop by midnight tonight....

 

[Shaggy]

Based on the 18z ICON, I think its the one down at 30W....and it should develop by midnight tonight....

That was my thinking but the icon seemed a bit north on development for that system. Both areas have some spin to them it seems already.

 

[Henry2326]

That was my thinking but the icon seemed a bit north on development for that system. Both areas have some spin to them it seems already.

I see what you mean.....the ICON circle could go either way. The 30W is popping on the loop.

 

[Shaggy]

Icon develops and maintains a system while the gfs develops or tries to then it appears to open back into a wave.

 

[Ethan80963]

 

[NoSnowATL]

I’ve never heard of a hurricane outbreak. Have we had one before? Just curious if that wording has been used before.

 

[Ethan80963]

I’ve never heard of a hurricane outbreak. Have we had one before? Just curious if that wording has been used before.

I’m probably not the one to answer this question but someone did find a map that finds matching analogs to the pattern thats set to occur. I see some worrisome years in there.