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Tropical 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Discussion

Henry2326 said:
Thoughts on how long it would take to warm back up, if another goes through that area? Fairly shallow in that area....
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I assume it mainly depends on amount of sunshine, whether there are any cold fronts that get down into the Gulf, currents, depth as you mentioned, etc. Maybe a couple of weeks though it may not get to the same level of warmth with the tremendous amount of warmth that was removed.

I remember the massive cooling from Dorian!

If you had access to old daily maps similar to this for other storms, you could get some idea that way.
 
I know it’s in “the shire” right now but looking at this the TC to the north of this PH is weakening the H5 over the North Atlantic. I would be concerned for the south east and a weakening ridge.


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Back to reality. 00z Icon has the cruiser trying to get in the gulf.....00z CMC does to but actually spins up #2......


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lexxnchloe said:
Yes, but where is it trapped?
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You have to know that ridges of high pressure flows clockwise, and a low pressure system moves counterclockwise. Typically the most dangerous setups for hurricanes is when we get a high pressure ridge over the northeast, which as illustrated in the picture, which allows the storm to get trapped, and have no where to go but hitting land.
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Both12z Icon and CMC get the low into the gulf but dont do anything with it......crazy strange that these two pics look almost the same about a day apart. Waiting to see if CMC does more with #2, although already 987.
Edit: at 9/8 still spinning in relatively same place at 986.......

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The 12z EPS is in, much more of a tropical signal, but luckily most are recurves.ecmwf-ensemble-avg-exatl-mslp_ens_min-9998400.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-exatl-mslp_anom-9998400.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-exatl-z500_anom-9998400.png
 
lexxnchloe said:
The good news is something is stopping things from developing. Im just glad many forecasts seem to have been too gloomy.
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The 2005 season, which forecasters are comparing this season, had 13 named storms by 9/1. Currently we are equal to that with 13 named storms. In August, 1 CAT5- KATRINA, we have Laura.
There were
5 named storms in Sept. (1 CAT5 - Rita, 1 CAT3-Maria)
6 named storms in Oct. (1 CAT5 - Wilma, 1 CAT3-Beta)
2 named storms in Nov
1 named storm in Dec

I dont see anything that would indicate that it has "stopped from developing". I fully expect this to play out with 14 additional named storms.

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Am I missing something we just had a 150 mph hurricane in the Gulf and it's not even September yet

Which btw the globals had an open wave on a few days before...

The much beloved EPS had Laura a tropical storm into Louisiana about 4 days out
 
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It may not stay quiet in the Atlantic basin overall, but the good news is that it looks about as quiet as can be in a non-El Niño season on the extended models for the SE US looking toward the heart of the season. Nice break hopefully! The SE has been hit quite hard since 2016.

Edit: This is not a “threat to the SE US is over for the season” post as nobody has a clue about that. Instead, this is as I said it, a “threat to the SE US, especially considering it isn’t El Niño, is about as low as can be over the next 2 weeks or so based strictly on how models look now going into the heart of the season” post.
 
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Brent said:
Am I missing something we just had a 150 mph hurricane in the Gulf and it's not even September yet

Which btw the globals had an open wave on a few days before...

The much beloved EPS had Laura a tropical storm into Louisiana about 4 days out
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yeah uhhh, although your official hurricane season starts earlier, we're really just starting to get under way now with hurricane season normally and have had a lot of named storms already (even though most haven't been too bad). Laura "probably" turned out to be as best case as you can for the US (even though it was still plenty bad) in that its landfall position was where the swamp took the most impact, but it's pretty likely we're not going to be talking about just Laura 6 weeks from now as a major impact storm.

I'd save my posts like that one for mid October and not late August.
 
GaWx said:
It may not stay quiet in the Atlantic basin overall, but the good news is that it looks about as quiet as can be in a non-El Niño season on the extended models for the SE US looking toward the heart of the season. Nice break hopefully! The SE has been hit quite hard since 2016.

Edit: This is not a “threat to the SE US is over for the season” post as nobody has a clue about that. Instead, this is as I said it, a “threat to the SE US, especially considering it isn’t El Niño, is about as low as can be over the next 2 weeks or so based strictly on how models look now going into the heart of the season” post.
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Multiple models had Laura staying at TS strength, never even hitting Cat 1 status. Some of you all are putting on wayyyy too much emphasis on "what if" scenarios. It's going to come and eventually bite us in the a$$ at some point. FYI, I am not trying to call you out as your professionalism and knowledge surpasses many of us. But a lot can and will change in the next two weeks. All I am saying is the SE coast is the last place I'd be letting my guard down, IMO. Especially with the ridging that's being advertised. It's going to come close for someone on this board.
 
ryan1234 said:
Multiple models had Laura staying at TS strength, never even hitting Cat 1 status. Some of you all are putting on wayyyy too much emphasis on "what if" scenarios. It's going to come and eventually bite us in the a$$ at some point. FYI, I am not trying to call you out as your professionalism and knowledge surpasses many of us. But a lot can and will change in the next two weeks. All I am saying is the SE coast is the last place I'd be letting my guard down, IMO. Especially with the ridging that's being advertised. It's going to come close for someone on this board.
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Yeah if anything this season has proven that the globals are useless at trying to predict storms I remember the GFS showing an outbreak of hurricanes in the EPAC and a dead Atlantic they barely had one lol and Laura was nowhere to be found on runs an almost Cat 5

People were writing off Laura because of the track over land in the end it didn't make a difference at all

I find it very hard to believe there would be any kind of real lull after Laura/Marco with 3 or 4 areas to watch

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ryan1234 said:
Multiple models had Laura staying at TS strength, never even hitting Cat 1 status. Some of you all are putting on wayyyy too much emphasis on "what if" scenarios. It's going to come and eventually bite us in the a$$ at some point. FYI, I am not trying to call you out as your professionalism and knowledge surpasses many of us. But a lot can and will change in the next two weeks. All I am saying is the SE coast is the last place I'd be letting my guard down, IMO. Especially with the ridging that's being advertised. It's going to come close for someone on this board.
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Yeah, I'm going strictly with what the models show (mainly quiet with regard to (FL, GA, SC, NC, AL, MS) in making that post. I'm not saying I trust them though.

Looking ahead, there appears to be a shot at a nice Canadian solidly colder than average airmass for the latter portion of the next 2 weeks (~9/9-12) bringing in wonderfully nice autumn wx. It is just after that that I'd be a bit more on guard in the SE. The pattern in 1984 (which was also during a developing La Nina) was somewhat similar to what's being forecasted. A similar record to near record cool Canadian high first hit Chicago 9/4 and then plunged into the SE US for 9/5-8 thanks to a strong upper E US trough. This map is from 9/6/1984
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However, the chilly airmass wasn't able to go much offshore as it met a lot of resistance just offshore FL, where a sfc low formed the next day (9/7) followed by a quick transition to TS Diana off of FL on 9/8 as upper ridging quickly replaced the upper trough north of it this leaving Diana blocked just off the SE coast. Here's the map for (9/8/1984):

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On 9/10, the blocked Diana slowly drifted NNE and became a H and a MH on 9/11:
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After some weakening (I'm guessing due to its own wake due to very slow movement) and a loop, Diana still hit NC as a H on 9/13:
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The timing in 2020 is about 3-4 days later in Sept, which would suggest a heightened risk for ~9/11-16. Nothing like this may actually happen, of course. But it is the kind of thing that can. So, after what may very well be a quiet first 10 or so days of Sep. for the Se tropicalwise, be wary about the period just after.
 
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