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Tropical 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Discussion

I'm sure it may eventually get posted somewhere but I believe the wave that may help form the system off of the SE coast started well into the tropics and followed Laura. It looks like at -72 hrs its near the yucatan, it also looks like some of the trough from Laura is mixed in as well. Good times
 
Special TWO on the Caribbean wave we have a race for Nana and Omar with the red circle off the east coast (this is the only invest of the bunch so far with 99L)

UPDATED: Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave
over the eastern Caribbean Sea are beginning to show signs of
organization. Recent satellite-derived surface winds also indicated
that a broad low pressure system has formed in association with the
wave. Additional development of this disturbance is expected over
the next few days, and a tropical depression could form during the
next couple of days while the system moves moves westward at about
15 mph across the Caribbean Sea. Interests in Jamaica, Honduras,
Belize, Guatemala and Yucatan should monitor the progress of this
disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.two_atl_5d0 (2).png
 
Gulf SSTs as of Fri 8/28, the day after Laura's landfall, showing a good 2-5 F cooling over much of the central and E GOM near and to the right of the track of the centers of Hs Marco and Laura. Before these storms, most of the Gulf was in the 30-31 C range (yellow). But even with this cooling, virtually the entire Gulf is still 82+ F, easily warm enough to sustain a major H that is not crawling plus it will almost immediately begin to warm back up (though maybe not getting to as warm as it was):

1598816535398.png
 
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1598818522996.png

Here are my latest thoughts regarding the SE US:
1. Forget the red of course.

2. I'm also not worried about the orange, which will almost definitely stay well to the south of the SE states though I suppose TX (mainly S) still may need to watch.

3. I'm not really concerned about the yellow near 29W.

4. The only one of these four that I think could potentially threaten the SE US way on down the road is the far right yellow wave, which won't even leave Africa for a few days. IF that would even threaten, it wouldn't be for at least 2 weeks or so..say, 9/13-16ish. Also around then, assuming we get the bottom of that cool Canadian high around 9/9-12 (still favored by the 12Z EPS), and IF that aforementioned African wave doesn't actually threaten, we MAY have to worry about something homegrown possibly vaguely similar to Diana of 1984 due to a possibly similar setup to 1984.

Here's the 12Z EPS hour 360 H5/sfc, which shows a restrengthening WAR. Also, note the upward kink in the 1016 mb isobar off of Florida, indicative of locally lower pressure:

1598820650349.png

Here's the 12Z EPS 360 with TCs. All of those circles are from the aforementioned wave still over Africa:
1598819005374.png

So, in summary as of now, I'm thinking most likely a quiet Sep 1-12 tropical threat-wise for the SE (hopefully including a nice gift from Canada), followed by a "watch the tropics" period near midmonth.
 
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Para GFS still wants to run a TC up into the Carolinas at hour 216. Not quite fantasy land anymore.


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12z Icon still liking the consolidation of 2 waves into one stronger storm on 9/8......and it stutters in place as if it trapped....

ScreenshotCapture_2020_08_31_12_48_30_673.jpg
 
This is a Hazel type setup as any TC caught in that would be hauling butt.

1f85f2f6a543a2600f9fe490dd41f105.jpg



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Models can't get a handle on anything this far out. Doesn't matter anymore if it's winter storms or hurricanes.
 
GaWx said:
I don’t understand the “yikes” as regards that 12Z Para GFS as those all recurve well OTS. However, I do think the following 18Z GEFS map deserves a bit of a “yikes” patternwise:

View attachment 47832
Click to expand...
Yeah, definitely a more "yikes" look than some other models, if we get that height maxima over Quebec vs the Netherlands. Things could look a little worse for us in that scenario. Luckily, taking verbatim only one member looks threatening.
gfs-ensemble-all-avg-exatl-z500_anom-0279200.png
storm_tracks_20200831_18_384.jpg
 
0Z GEFS: no member TC hits on the CONUS through entire run. Hard to beat that. But will it verify? We'll see.

Edit: 18Z Para GFS: puts a complete stop to the runs with threatening TCs to the SE.

This amazing season would get that much more amazing if we were to go from the memorable and very busy jly/August to the opposite in Sept. I'm not predicting that at all, but it is in the realm of possibilities given the latest model projections for the first half of Sep. If I get time, I'm going to hunt for La Nina seasons like this.

Edit: I couldn't find anything similar back to 1950. I'll go back further.

Maybe 1893: about the best analog I could find going way back to 1852:

 
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GaWx said:
0Z GEFS: no member TC hits on the CONUS through entire run. Hard to beat that. But will it verify? We'll see.

Edit: 18Z Para GFS: puts a complete stop to the runs with threatening TCs to the SE.

This amazing season would get that much more amazing if we were to go from the memorable August to the opposite in Sept. I'm not predicting that at all, but it is in the realm of possibilities given the latest model projections for the first half of Sep. If I get time, I'm going to hunt for La Nina seasons like this.
Click to expand...
Let's hope these cold fronts saves us
 
GaWx said:
0Z GEFS: no member TC hits on the CONUS through entire run. Hard to beat that. But will it verify? We'll see.

Edit: 18Z Para GFS: puts a complete stop to the runs with threatening TCs to the SE.

This amazing season would get that much more amazing if we were to go from the memorable and very busy jly/August to the opposite in Sept. I'm not predicting that at all, but it is in the realm of possibilities given the latest model projections for the first half of Sep. If I get time, I'm going to hunt for La Nina seasons like this.

Edit: I couldn't find anything similar back to 1950. I'll go back further.

Maybe 1893: about the best analog I could find going way back to 1852:

Click to expand...
I thought a hurricane outbreak was coming?
 
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