Azores high is a little east so you have a weakness in the East/Central Atlantic
Tropical 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Discussion
- Thread starter Snowfan
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I don’t understand the “yikes” as regards that 12Z Para GFS as those all recurve well OTS. However, I do think the following 18Z GEFS map deserves a bit of a “yikes” patternwise:
Yeah, definitely a more "yikes" look than some other models, if we get that height maxima over Quebec vs the Netherlands. Things could look a little worse for us in that scenario. Luckily, taking verbatim only one member looks threatening.
That high pressure keeps it going west too doesn’t it?
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CMC looks like it will be a recurve.....Icon seems to be running further south, so not sure.....
0Z GEFS: no member TC hits on the CONUS through entire run. Hard to beat that. But will it verify? We'll see.
Edit: 18Z Para GFS: puts a complete stop to the runs with threatening TCs to the SE.
This amazing season would get that much more amazing if we were to go from the memorable and very busy jly/August to the opposite in Sept. I'm not predicting that at all, but it is in the realm of possibilities given the latest model projections for the first half of Sep. If I get time, I'm going to hunt for La Nina seasons like this.
Edit: I couldn't find anything similar back to 1950. I'll go back further.
Maybe 1893: about the best analog I could find going way back to 1852:
Edit: 18Z Para GFS: puts a complete stop to the runs with threatening TCs to the SE.
This amazing season would get that much more amazing if we were to go from the memorable and very busy jly/August to the opposite in Sept. I'm not predicting that at all, but it is in the realm of possibilities given the latest model projections for the first half of Sep. If I get time, I'm going to hunt for La Nina seasons like this.
Edit: I couldn't find anything similar back to 1950. I'll go back further.
Maybe 1893: about the best analog I could find going way back to 1852:
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I thought a hurricane outbreak was coming?
06z GFS Para......not anymore room to add one....a blind squirrel finds a hit occasionally.....meaning something is bound to hit .....
