Sounds like a Nino
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Tropical 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Discussion
- Thread starter Snowfan
- Start date
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
No, it really sounds more like 2017. Many prominent figures were cancelling the season in mid-late August as the east Pacific raged, then the Atlantic ended up having one of the most active Septembers on record. This year may not be that active in September, but the environment could actually support as much, if not more activity this time around.
Id watch the mcv parade exiting the Carolina coast. Short window 2-4 days for them to fester just off the coast before being pushed back inland or off to the north.
Needa watch these MCVs for development once they interact with warm water, especially that one off the SC coast 
Code Orange in the Atlantic. 
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located a
few hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands
continue to show signs of organization. However, satellite-derived
wind data from earlier this morning indicated that the circulation
remains elongated. Environmental conditions appear conducive
enough to support additional development of this system, and a
tropical depression could form during the next few days while it
moves generally westward at 15 mph across the tropical Atlantic.
Conditions are likely to become less conducive for development late
this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located a
few hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands
continue to show signs of organization. However, satellite-derived
wind data from earlier this morning indicated that the circulation
remains elongated. Environmental conditions appear conducive
enough to support additional development of this system, and a
tropical depression could form during the next few days while it
moves generally westward at 15 mph across the tropical Atlantic.
Conditions are likely to become less conducive for development late
this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
Henry2326
Member
Henry2326
Member
It has some spin.....
Henry2326
Member
BHS1975
Member
Yeah I was thinking the same thing and I have seen it happen before. The models don’t handle it well.
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Henry2326
Member
Henry2326
Member
Downeastnc
Member
95L flexing a bit tonight....
BHS1975
Member
I’m guessing it’s about to run into a lot of shear and open back up into a wave.
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BHS1975
Member
Although if it can get strong it can fight it off. In any case the trough moving in later will take it ots.
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Henry2326
Member
Hmmm....the lead feature appears to be giving it some cover.....like its sitting in a trough.....
accu35
Member
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Are you sure about a OTS solution?
BHS1975
Member
Going by the gfs. The Euro shows a pattern very similar to what we had with the last storm.
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Especially if it stays weak, it may not recurve OTS as models do get it pretty far into the W Atlantic but there very well may not be much to it/it might then dissipate over water.