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Misc 2020/21 Fall and Winter Whamby Thread

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The problem is people start believing these clown maps that have no chance of verifying. Clown maps should be banned on here in the future.
 
Dewpoint Dan said:
The problem is people start believing these clown maps that have no chance of verifying. Clown maps should be banned on here in the future.
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That’s on them for taking the bait. Good luck getting one person to agree with you on banning clown maps, lol. It’s all part of the game.
 
I would say it’s a bust here if the ground doesn’t get a coating. After all, we are in the WWA and I’m pretty sure RAH’s bulletin last night had 1-2”, even though I thought that was a little bullish. My personal forecast was for T-1”. As of now, I’m not confident in much of anything. We shall see.
 
metwannabe said:
Clown maps with total disregard for actual forecast
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Well to be fair, NWS has me under a winter storm warning! Wasn't just a clown map bust but also a huge forecasting bust. Ways I knew not to expect anything:

1. ULL. Eww.
2. Rain changing to snow. Eww.
3. Temp never forecast or modeled to get at or below freezing. Not even wetbulb to freezing. Intolerable.
4. Spotty, inconsistent modeled precip. No blossoming gulf moisture, comma head low. Can't happen when you're counting on rates for accumulation.
5. Spotty light radar returns last night; verified huge bust upcoming.
6. Depending on the deformation band. Signed, sealed, delivered bust.
 
superjames1992 said:
I would say it’s a bust here if the ground doesn’t get a coating. After all, we are in the WWA and I’m pretty sure RAH’s bulletin last night had 1-2”, even though I thought that was a little bullish. My personal forecast was for T-1”. As of now, I’m not confident in much of anything. We shall see.
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WRAL said a dusting to 2 inches. I think they took the easy way out and just covered their butts. It seems like no one knows what will happen when it comes to winter weather around here. It's getting just as bad with forecasting thunderstorms, too. With all the technology we have, it seems the models and accuracy with forecasting anything but sunny and dry or plain rain is getting worse instead of better.
 
Currently 39 and creeping up. Getting that snowy feeling!!!
 
Brick Tamland said:
WRAL said a dusting to 2 inches. I think they took the easy way out and just covered their butts. It seems like no one knows what will happen when it comes to winter weather around here. It's getting just as bad with forecasting thunderstorms, too. With all the technology we have, it seems the models and accuracy with forecasting anything but sunny and dry or plain rain is getting worse instead of better.
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A dusting to 2" will likely be right on the money. That doesn't mean everyone gets 2" but it sounds like you expect to win the lottery every time you play.
 
SnowNiner said:
Well to be fair, NWS has me under a winter storm warning! Wasn't just a clown map bust but also a huge forecasting bust. Ways I knew not to expect anything:

1. ULL. Eww.
2. Rain changing to snow. Eww.
3. Temp never forecast or modeled to get at or below freezing. Not even wetbulb to freezing. Intolerable.
4. Spotty, inconsistent modeled precip. No blossoming gulf moisture, comma head low. Can't happen when you're counting on rates for accumulation.
5. Spotty light radar returns last night; verified huge bust upcoming.
6. Depending on the deformation band. Signed, sealed, delivered bust.
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Good point and it definitely wasn't referencing everyone just those that seem to meltdown the most lol
 
Brick Tamland said:
WRAL said a dusting to 2 inches. I think they took the easy way out and just covered their butts. It seems like no one knows what will happen when it comes to winter weather around here. It's getting just as bad with forecasting thunderstorms, too. With all the technology we have, it seems the models and accuracy with forecasting anything but sunny and dry or plain rain is getting worse instead of better.
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I think RAH had just T-1” for Wake County, to be fair, but yeah.
 
sdm47 said:
A dusting to 2" will likely be right on the money. That doesn't mean everyone gets 2" but it sounds like you expect to win the lottery every time you play.
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Just saying there's a big difference between a dusting and 2 inches. Just seems like a way to be right no matter what happens.
 
SD said:
It's close for us this evening and should be fun/painful to watch. Gotta like the band of fgen extending back over us this evening but we are going to be waiting for enough caa to flipView attachment 64245
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NW trend NW trend NW trend ????
 
Brick Tamland said:
I thought this was the complaining thread.
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It is but at least wait until the system is over before you complain and try to at least have some merit to your complaint.... also don't make post that are similar in other threads.
 
So now we have rules about what and when we can complain in the thread for complaining?
 
Expecting to be able to know if an exact spot gets .05" of rain or .2" of precipitation hours or days in advance is ridiculous.
 
Look at how the HRRR distributes the precipitation tonight in the banding on the backside
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You have to give ranges here because even just across wake county you might have areas of .3 and others at .1 over this 4 hour window, in a 6:1 ratio world that's the difference between essentially a dusting and 2 inches
 
Party in here this morning. The 12z models will come in for the final kick in the nuts.
 
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