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Misc 2020/21 Fall and Winter Whamby Thread

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Webberweather53 said:
Final call map for this event. No major changes overall except to mention areas along the US 74 corridor between Charlotte & Fayetteville have the greatest potential for snow later this evening given the more favorable differential CVA aloft that'll be down there.

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Raleigh posters heading to the cliff as we speak.

At least I’m barely I’m the pink here in western Durham County. I hope I at least see some sticking snow!!!
 
Avalanche said:
Still looks big time just to your west. Drive a little if you have to, enjoy it. We never know anymore when we might see it again.
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Yeah I'm hoping to stay here but definitely not ruling anything out if there's a sharp cutoff especially

I mean I did see snow last week but you're right who knows when we get another setup lol
 
Still waiting on this great pattern change around mid month because so far this winter has been nothing but poop ? up here bust after bust so far flurries with dry cold is all that’s been able to mustard up around these parts and I’m still waiting to see a legitimate snowstorm and I’m not even in the south smh
 
So no posts in the January thread since 12 last night. Must be going to ----.
 
Starting to think this is all a waste of time. All the pattern talk, all the model watching. Folks saying we're headed towards a great pattern for snow and it never materializes. You can't trust the models and it just isn't how it used to be when it comes to winter here. The climate has changed for whatever reason and it is just getting harder and harder to get a good winter storm outside the mountains no matter how good the pattern supposedly looks. If the great pattern that we are supposedly getting the second half of the month doesn't materialize or doesn't produce a good winter storm here then I seriously think I'm done following things here and just letting whatever happens happen.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Starting to think this is all a waste of time. All the pattern talk, all the model watching. Folks saying we're headed towards a great pattern for snow and it never materializes. You can't trust the models and it just isn't how it used to be when it comes to winter here. The climate has changed for whatever reason and it is just getting harder and harder to get a good winter storm outside the mountains no matter how good the pattern supposedly looks. If the great pattern that we are supposedly getting the second half of the month doesn't materialize or doesn't produce a good winter storm here then I seriously think I'm done following things here and just letting whatever happens happen.
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Thank you for your service
 
Brick Tamland said:
Starting to think this is all a waste of time. All the pattern talk, all the model watching. Folks saying we're headed towards a great pattern for snow and it never materializes. You can't trust the models and it just isn't how it used to be when it comes to winter here. The climate has changed for whatever reason and it is just getting harder and harder to get a good winter storm outside the mountains no matter how good the pattern supposedly looks. If the great pattern that we are supposedly getting the second half of the month doesn't materialize or doesn't produce a good winter storm here then I seriously think I'm done following things here and just letting whatever happens happen.
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Not the worst idea actually
 
sdm47 said:
What would be good is if one of these D10 (nonsense no one should ever look at time frames - I'm guilty as any) patterns would actually make it into D5 (model verification is actually above 50%, or a coin flip) range. I think there is something about the current setup with the persistent Greenland blocking and models beyond truncation that is causing this to reoccur, but it's just a mirage. Hopefully the SSWE will trigger a tropospheric response that will eventually match whatever is fooling the lower-resolution part of these runs. If anyone hasn't noticed, the blocking always becomes much more extreme just beyond 192 hours, but rarely is it making it into the higher resolution part of the run without a dramatic alteration.

View attachment 64182

Case in point, the last (18z) GFS run. And there's plenty more (examples) where that came from.

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Yeah you got that right. If afraid if we didn't live at D+10, we'd never have a winter. Oh wait. Lol

Looking out my window right now, I can see the sun shining, with a temp of 38F, under a WWA. Typical modern day winter storm.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Starting to think this is all a waste of time. All the pattern talk, all the model watching. Folks saying we're headed towards a great pattern for snow and it never materializes. You can't trust the models and it just isn't how it used to be when it comes to winter here. The climate has changed for whatever reason and it is just getting harder and harder to get a good winter storm outside the mountains no matter how good the pattern supposedly looks. If the great pattern that we are supposedly getting the second half of the month doesn't materialize or doesn't produce a good winter storm here then I seriously think I'm done following things here and just letting whatever happens happen.
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We're not in a great pattern yet. Will we get there? Who knows.
 
And just think what a few more degrees of warming will do. Maybe the cold rains will get warmer


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This one had fail written all over it.

Still hoping for this winter, but the sustained great pattern we were supposed to have has faded away.....or will last about 4 days.
 
Rain Cold said:
We're not in a great pattern yet. Will we get there? Who knows.
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That's the problem. A lot of talk about a great pattern that's on the way and it never materializes, or if it does it still doesn't produce anything. Right now we're supposed to have a great pattern for winter storms the second half of the month. We'll see.
 
Broken024 said:
We should all move to a place where snow is impossible so there is never a reason to think about it. Columbia SC should work.
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LOL, you’ll always be wishing for another February 2010, though. Florida is the only way. Or Puerto Rico just so flakes are literally impossible.
 
SnowNiner said:
This one had fail written all over it.

Still hoping for this winter, but the sustained great pattern we were supposed to have has faded away.....or will last about 4 days.
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Yeah, I agree. Eric has been trying to warn folks outside of the mountains about this one for several days, but some haven't wanted to listen to him.
 
mrdaddyman said:
Yeah, I agree. Eric has been trying to warn folks outside of the mountains about this one for several days, but some haven't wanted to listen to him.
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Trouble is even the fantasy storms have vanished.


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SD said:
I'm not sure what's busted yet tbh
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Let’s hope we don’t bust. But the rain this morning, although expected, is very sad!! ?

My NWS point forecast has definitely gotten worse, though!
 
Brick Tamland said:
That's the problem. A lot of talk about a great pattern that's on the way and it never materializes, or if it does it still doesn't produce anything. Right now we're supposed to have a great pattern for winter storms the second half of the month. We'll see.
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Oh well it's just snow
 
It could be worse. I sat and watched ULL miss me to the south by ONE county. 30 miles south of me got 2 “ while I got nada.
 
It seems a bit early to dive off the cliff... we still aren’t supposed to be seeing the effects of the SSW for another 10 days or so, and models always have a hard time showing a pattern change. Give it a few more weeks, we’ve still managed to squeeze out a few small events from this marginal pattern. Once the real cold comes in we’ll see about having a proper winter storm somewhere.


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SD said:
Wasn't most of the day before the snow in March 09 all rain?
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Yeah, in Greensboro it rained until a couple hours after sunset, IIRC, then changed to sleet and then over to snow shortly after that. And 6.4” later I was very happy, haha. I think it rained for a couple days leading up to that one.
 
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