• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Misc 2020/21 Fall and Winter Whamby Thread

Status
Not open for further replies.
Ollie Williams said:
Lol! I checked out the GEFS LR control, and I swear, that has to be the strongest -NAO I’ve ever seen!
View attachment 57607

View attachment 57609
View attachment 57610
AO goes off the charts of the graphic!
View attachment 57611
Click to expand...
tenor.gif
 
I'm not sure how realistic 2-3 feet totals would be... not only first couple inches of this will be from the first wave, but you also got to account for the melting of wet snow at the base & the compaction of heavy snow to reduce the snow depth. You could get 18" of snowfall and end up with 12" of snow depth when it's all over. Finally... this is a very quick moving storm. I think 12-16" is the ceiling here with couple local spots getting 16-20".
 
WxBlue said:
I'm not sure how realistic 2-3 feet totals would be... not only first couple inches of this will be from the first wave, but you also got to account for the melting of wet snow at the base & the compaction of heavy snow to reduce the snow depth. You could get 18" of snowfall and end up with 12" of snow depth when it's all over. Finally... this is a very quick moving storm. I think 12-16" is the ceiling here with couple local spots getting 16-20".
Click to expand...

If you take the Euro verbatim, 2-3 feet is definitely realistic w/ up to 2.5" QPF being modeled over the mountains of central PA which will have the added benefit of orographically forced ascent which likely isn't being properly resolved (& arguably underestimated) by the model. Snow liquid ratios would also be greater than 10:1 because the low-mid level temps & thicknesses support it (at face value) on the model. 850s of -3 to -7C w/ surface temps in the mid-upper 20s despite high liquid water content snow puts central PA in the ballpark of SLRs close to 12:1 ish.

1607931533296.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
If you take the Euro verbatim, 2-3 feet is definitely realistic w/ up to 2.5" QPF being modeled over the mountains of central PA which will have the added benefit of orographically forced ascent which likely isn't being properly resolved (& arguably underestimated) by the model. Snow liquid ratios would also be greater than 10:1 because the low-mid level temps & thicknesses support it (at face value) on the model. 850s of -3 to -7C w/ surface temps in the mid-upper 20s despite high liquid water content snow puts central PA in the ballpark of SLRs close to 12:1 ish.

View attachment 57623
Click to expand...

Oth, imo if the heaviest axis of snow is actually east of what the Euro shows here and is east of the spine of the apps in central PA in this particular storm and between I-95 & I-81, 2-3 feet definitely isn't happening & I'd agree in such a case that 12-16" is the more realistic ceiling
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top