We're definitely not in neutral ENSO anymore even though the sensible impacts in the SE US aren't what you'd expect in an El Nino February, you simply don't get 3 successive westerly wind burst events, and one w/ > 20 m/s westerly wind anomalies at the dateline in the central Pacific w/o the background state having been already predisposed towards an El Nino to support convection there that non linearly reinforces the subseasonally-induced wind anomaly.
This gigantic dateline westerly wind burst is going to set off a pretty substantial downwelling oceanic kelvin wave that'll kickstart a legitimate moderate-strong El Nino later this year and into the winter of 2019-20.
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The RMM phase regression maps from Roundy's site don't line up as well when centered over the current period of Feb 10, but w/ early March. The only difference between the regression maps from now vs early March is the OLR (shading) is stronger & further east in the Pacific which better matches the current base state that's either neutral ENSO w/ a clear cut (ongoing) advancement towards El Nino or weak El Nino.
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It's amazing how well this map predicts/corresponds to the current pattern.
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