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Misc 2019 Banter & Friendly Conservation

I honestly think winter forecasting in this day and age is worth very little more than a dart throw from a long way away in a variable 50 mph wind. It's a good exercise to go through, but at the end of the day, much of it is based on history, and I think it's entirely within the realm of possibility that the climate is so different now, the responses and reactions of the atmosphere are different, at least some. Probably the most accurate method is persistence forecasting. I know that's not really forecasting, but if you just go above normal temps for the winter and no blocking, you'd get really close every time.
 
Rain Cold said:
I honestly think winter forecasting in this day and age is worth very little more than a dart throw from a long way away in a variable 50 mph wind. It's a good exercise to go through, but at the end of the day, much of it is based on history, and I think it's entirely within the realm of possibility that the climate is so different now, the responses and reactions of the atmosphere are different, at least some. Probably the most accurate method is persistence forecasting. I know that's not really forecasting, but if you just go above normal temps for the winter and no blocking, you'd get really close every time.
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I mean essentially yea if you forecasted ENSO-related climate anomalies skewed heavily by AGW/interannual persistence you'd be close to the answer most times!
 
Snowgeorgia said:
I understand all of that too, and like you said I kinda just get over it, but I’ve noticed for a while it just gets worse. I’ve ignored it over and over but finally just had to State my opinion. It just irritates me to see the same people from talkweather change so much and be so rude. (Not saying names)
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I'm very pro banter and have said so, that said I haven't seen anybody be rude at all about moving posts. To be honest as well, some would have already been banned by now on TW and for good reason, so they are giving lots of leeway.
 
To tell y'all the truth, I'm pretty unexcited about that early week system. I had terms to where I can't put the groundhogzilla as my avi unless it's a total swing and a miss, but that looks like a good Mississippi/Alabama/Tennessee/maybe NW Georgia thing, then no dice east. It'd unfortunately be fitting given the complaining that was going on.

Can that get worked on to where it's a solid storm for Lafayette? I feel the wambulance sirens going off, as I know it'd just be token flakes here.

And yeah. #startthethread on that fantasy land thing in the FV3. Major ice.
 
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Ok spring let’s get a move on. If these winter threats aren’t going to pan out I’d like to move on to spring so I can not waste my time on “snow storms” lol
 
January might not produce anything here after all the hype with the pattern.
 
ForsythSnow said:
That may be very true for most areas. You had something this winter so be glad for that at least. Not even a dusting here yet.
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Just think it is funny how this pattern we are in was so hyped up for winter storms, but we had the big storm in December when the pattern wasn't hyped as much.
 
Rain Cold said:
There is no way there's going to be cold front snow down here.
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The problem we have east of the mountains is the energy usually either cuts north and the mountains also dry things out (NW flow) or if the precip is there the low level cold is delayed some by the mountains and by the time it gets here the precip is gone. Usually these frontal passages like this can work out well for areas west of the apps but not east of them... only way we have something of interest is if we get a low to pop to the south sort of like the CMC shows.
 
Brick.

We are not in a good pattern for winter storms right now. It was thought during the back end of the winter we'd go into one, but does this actually look like a pattern conducive for snow in the south:

1548184024795.png

Thought so. It was thought that we'd get into a pattern that is better for winter storms in January (which would have a trough in the east), but because of the MJO delay, we threw away the first half of January.
 
Snow holed again on the Euro. Let's just move on to freakin Spring. I am over this.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Brick.

We are not in a good pattern for winter storms right now. It was thought during the back end of the winter we'd go into one, but does this actually look like a pattern conducive for snow in the south:

View attachment 12604

Thought so. It was thought that we'd get into a pattern that is better for winter storms in January (which would have a trough in the east), but because of the MJO delay, we threw away the first half of January.
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If you tilt your head and pretend the SW is the SE, yes
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Brick.

We are not in a good pattern for winter storms right now. It was thought during the back end of the winter we'd go into one, but does this actually look like a pattern conducive for snow in the south:

View attachment 12604

Thought so. It was thought that we'd get into a pattern that is better for winter storms in January (which would have a trough in the east), but because of the MJO delay, we threw away the first half of January.
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There was plenty of hype about going into a good pattern for winter storms here entering this week.
 
I'm not sure how many different ways I can say "dont model chase". The atmosphere is chaotic and the model runs are all over the place in regards to a potential system.

The idea is to split the difference and notice that there's a stronger push of cold, that the models are notorious for overdoing that is sending the initial system to Cuba. I am almost positive we will see a correction North (how, far, IDK!) soon enough as we get closer.
 
Shawn said:
I'm not sure how many different ways I can say "dont model chase". The atmosphere is chaotic and the model runs are all over the place in regards to a potential system.

The idea is to split the difference and notice that there's a stronger push of cold, that the models are notorious for overdoing that is sending the initial system to Cuba. I am almost positive we will see a correction North (how, far, IDK!) soon enough as we get closer.
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As long as the first system actually ends up to our north to drag down more cold air and setup blocking, we will have more chances as shown on the Euro.
 
packfan98 said:
As long as the first system actually ends up to our north to drag down more cold air and setup blocking, we will have more chances as shown on the Euro.
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I'm still feeling excited for the whole period as we head into Feb. regardless of what the snow maps and storm signal is showing right now. I'd like to remind everyone that we don't need temperatures in the teens to get Winter weather, and sometimes, it really can "be too cold" to snow down here. (supressing precipitation out)

Seeing some imagery of warmer temperatures is not necassarily a bad thing. In fact, a lot of nicer Winter storms come during a temperature change.
 
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