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Misc 2019 Banter & Friendly Conservation

packfan98 said:
You should put this as your signature and stay out of the pattern discussion threads.
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Why? Because I care more about the end result than the pattern itself? You think most folks read the January thread hoping to hear how good the pattern is but don't care about seeing if they actually get any winter storms?

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Brick Tamland said:
I don't get why all of a sudden people act like when folks say we keep pushing things back that they are talking about the pattern and not the actual storms. I don't care what the pattern is if it doesn't produce winter storms for me. The pattern in early December was not better than normal for winter storms and I still got close to 10 inches of snow. I dont't care if it is cold for a long time if we don't have any winter storms to go with it. We have always talked about things being pushed back as the actual storms showing on the models being more than 7 days away, and then when we get inside 7 days they turn to rain or there is no system at all. Last week we were looking at winter storms on the op runs for the 20th, 23rd, and 28th. Now all of those are rain or gone. It is the actual storms that keep getting pushed back, and you can only go so long with the ops not showing anything for your backyard and still believe the ensembles.
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Don’t kid yourself. The pattern preceding the big Dec event where you got 10” was very favorable. We were coming off an extended -NAO, we had a big 50/50 low and western ridge. Those are all ingredients we need to get big snow events. We also had favorable MJO phase. Next 2 weeks isn’t as favorable....after that we will see.

These were the temps before the event.

61A08010-45C6-4A8D-A478-576CA65153C0.png
 
DarkKnight said:
Well I guess I will go ahead and share with you guys. I been having back problems (disc protrusion on L4-S1) off and on for about 7 years now. My back has been giving me problems again for about 3 months ever since having to take care of my mother before she passed away in November. Well I have tried getting epidurals in the back 3 times and didn’t help. So, I went back to the doctor yesterday and he tells me he is going to send me to a surgeon to see about doing a diskectomy. Has anyone ever had this done and how was the outcome of it? How long did it take to get better?
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DarkKnight, sorry to hear that. I deal with similar issues as well. I injured my back at my job back in 2003, had my first lumbar laninectomy and missed 1 1/2 yrs of work. I recovered and returned to same heavy duty job and ended up having a 2nd laminectomy at same level, L4-5 in 2013. I only missed 6 months that time and again went back to same job. I ended up reinjuring my back in 2016 and this time they wanted to do a 2 level fusion, but insurance denied. I’m now stuck at a level where pain is tolerable with little activity, but a trip to Walmart or Kroger and I’m done for. I was awarded total disability in September of this year. I didn’t post all this to scare ya lol, but the key is making sure you have a really good surgeon and not someone looking to cut just to cut. I woke up after my 2nd surgery pain free and stayed that way until reinjury. The key also after surgery and recovery is to make sure you protect your back. I noticed the least bit of jarring would send instant pain through out my body.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Why? Because I care more about the end result than the pattern itself? You think most folks read the January thread hoping to hear how good the pattern is but don't care about seeing if they actually get any winter storms?
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Sure they read and hope for storms, but they don't fill up the thread with crap and complaints every day like you do.
 
All I have said is we are not seeing anything yet as far as a legit threat on the models even though we are going into a pattern that is supposed to be better than normal for producing winter storms. Hopefully, the ensembles are onto something and we will have some legit threats to track soon and things work out.
 
Brick Tamland said:
I don't get why all of a sudden people act like when folks say we keep pushing things back that they are talking about the pattern and not the actual storms. I don't care what the pattern is if it doesn't produce winter storms for me. The pattern in early December was not better than normal for winter storms and I still got close to 10 inches of snow. I dont't care if it is cold for a long time if we don't have any winter storms to go with it. We have always talked about things being pushed back as the actual storms showing on the models being more than 7 days away, and then when we get inside 7 days they turn to rain or there is no system at all. Last week we were looking at winter storms on the op runs for the 20th, 23rd, and 28th. Now all of those are rain or gone. It is the actual storms that keep getting pushed back, and you can only go so long with the ops not showing anything for your backyard and still believe the ensembles.
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What actual storms have been showing up and pushed back? And please don't say some 240 hour fantasy storm.
 
Didn't we have three threats showing up last week for this week? Might have been between 7 and 10 days. We don't have anything showing now on the ops. Like I said, maybe the GEFS is right about the end of the month, and the ops will start to show something soon, or they might wait until 3 days out and pop up on the ops again.
 
I do think we will need the MJO on our side and hopefully we can take a trip through 7-8-1.

B63A9308-AC59-4151-B324-6EC7FB8D5C2F.gif

Phase 5/6 shows Aleutian ridge and western trough, which is what GEFS is showing towards end of its run. If the blocking is legit then warmth will obviously be muted.

DF7CD1C2-5B40-458A-B90E-49F4F543C0CB.gif
JanENMJOphase6gt1500mb.gif


But phase 7-8-1 are great for Feb. Bring it on!


43AB7891-16B0-4EEA-9AD9-BB3C04CB2C9E.gif
7FE08128-B29A-42D6-A991-8764C95608D4.gif
 
Snow_chaser said:
DarkKnight, sorry to hear that. I deal with similar issues as well. I injured my back at my job back in 2003, had my first lumbar laninectomy and missed 1 1/2 yrs of work. I recovered and returned to same heavy duty job and ended up having a 2nd laminectomy at same level, L4-5 in 2013. I only missed 6 months that time and again went back to same job. I ended up reinjuring my back in 2016 and this time they wanted to do a 2 level fusion, but insurance denied. I’m now stuck at a level where pain is tolerable with little activity, but a trip to Walmart or Kroger and I’m done for. I was awarded total disability in September of this year. I didn’t post all this to scare ya lol, but the key is making sure you have a really good surgeon and not someone looking to cut just to cut. I woke up after my 2nd surgery pain free and stayed that way until reinjury. The key also after surgery and recovery is to make sure you protect your back. I noticed the least bit of jarring would send instant pain through out my body.
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Hate to hear about the denial on the fusion. You gave some good advice on protecting it.

My injury forced a change in I how I move. No bending if at all possible. I squat all the time now.

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Snow_chaser said:
DarkKnight, sorry to hear that. I deal with similar issues as well. I injured my back at my job back in 2003, had my first lumbar laninectomy and missed 1 1/2 yrs of work. I recovered and returned to same heavy duty job and ended up having a 2nd laminectomy at same level, L4-5 in 2013. I only missed 6 months that time and again went back to same job. I ended up reinjuring my back in 2016 and this time they wanted to do a 2 level fusion, but insurance denied. I’m now stuck at a level where pain is tolerable with little activity, but a trip to Walmart or Kroger and I’m done for. I was awarded total disability in September of this year. I didn’t post all this to scare ya lol, but the key is making sure you have a really good surgeon and not someone looking to cut just to cut. I woke up after my 2nd surgery pain free and stayed that way until reinjury. The key also after surgery and recovery is to make sure you protect your back. I noticed the least bit of jarring would send instant pain through out my body.
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Yea, I know I going to be very careful. When they call me with the appointment, I will be doing a lot of research on that surgeon/doctor. Thanks for the post. I want to hear all sides .. ??
 
Pea Ridge said:
Hate to hear about the denial on the fusion. You gave some good advice on protecting it.

My injury forced a change in I how I move. No bending if at all possible. I squat all the time now.

Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using Tapatalk
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Yea I unfortunately was dealing with workers comp doctors and insurance company. My treating dr wanted to do the fusion, but they sent me to 2 different surgeons that I call paid off drs lol. They both said surgery wouldn’t help me mainly because I have multiple issues with my back. I deal with spinal stenosis and also ddd. When I returned to my selected surgeon that done my 2nd surgery, he also agreed that surgery wasn’t an option at this time. I now wait and see if it gets worse so surgery becomes an option or I stay the same and deal with the pain. I’ve been down the road of therapy, epidurals, direct facet injections and none of it helps.
 
DarkKnight said:
Well I guess I will go ahead and share with you guys. I been having back problems (disc protrusion on L4-S1) off and on for about 7 years now. My back has been giving me problems again for about 3 months ever since having to take care of my mother before she passed away in November. Well I have tried getting epidurals in the back 3 times and didn’t help. So, I went back to the doctor yesterday and he tells me he is going to send me to a surgeon to see about doing a diskectomy. Has anyone ever had this done and how was the outcome of it? How long did it take to get better?
Click to expand...
I did about 13 years ago.... So I had a bulging disc issue, went to a chiropractic (he did an MRI), saw the disc, did adjustments for a few months and the pain went away completely. And then a couple years later out of nowhere it was back, brutal, sciatic nerve pain so intense I could barely press in the clutch on my pickup truck. I went back to the same chiropractic, he felt certain it was the same issue and adjustments would work...... they didn't. After months of excruciating pain I talked him into doing another MRI, which showed a portion of my disc (L4-L5 region) completely separated from the spine (ruptured), lodged next to the nerve, not that uncommon but it was a section about the size of a quarter and was so obvious even to an untrained eye on the image. He immediately referred me to a surgeon who was all excited because he had never seen anything quite like it Lol.... long story short (too late I know). He removed the herniated disc, cleaned out that area..... 13 years and 7 marathons (full 26.2 mile marathons) later I'd say it was successful. I did have about an 8 week recovery period afterward but the next day I was walking and by the end of the 8 weeks I was walking over 2 miles. Can't even see the scar anymore... I did lose some muscle tissue in my calf prior to surgery due to the length of time it was impinging the nerve and that resulted in daily leg cramps for almost 2 years following the surgery in that leg. But no issues now and all of that is a distant memory. Good luck, I don't think you will regret the procedure!
 
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Snowflowxxl said:
Brick is a great poster who is speaking truth. Y’all leave him alone.
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??‍♂️??‍♂️ How much is brick paying you????

Yes, Brick can be a great poster. But he doesnt like to listen to the professionals meteorologist in here and learn. If he did listen to them and learn what they are saying. He could be one of the top 5 or 10 poster in here. ?
 
metwannabe said:
I did about 13 years ago.... So I had a bulging disc issue, went to a chiropractic (he did an MRI), saw the disc, did adjustments for a few months and the pain went away completely. And then a couple years later out of nowhere it was back, brutal, sciatic nerve pain so intense I could barely press in the clutch on my pickup truck. I went back to the same chiropractic, he felt certain it was the same issue and adjustments would work...... they didn't. After months of excruciating pain I talked him into doing another MRI, which showed a portion of my disc (L4-L5 region) completely separated from the spine (ruptured), lodged next to the nerve, not that uncommon but it was a section about the size of a quarter and was so obvious even to an untrained eye on the image. He immediately referred me to a surgeon who was all excited because he had never seen anything quite like it Lol.... long story short (too late I know). He removed the herniated disc, cleaned out the disc..... 13 years and 7 marathons (full 26.2 mile marathons) later I'd say it was successful. I did have about an 8 week recovery period afterward but the next day I was walking and by the end of the 8 weeks I was walking over 2 miles. Can't even see the scar anymore... I did lose some muscle tissue in my calf prior to surgery due to the length of time it was impinging the nerve and that resulted in daily leg cramps for almost 2 years following the surgery in that leg. But no issues now and all of that is a distant memory. Good luck, I don't think you will regret the procedure!
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Dang/wow!!! Yea I have the numbness go down my legs also. I really hope that makes that go away also. Thank you!!
 
Kylo said:
Don’t kid yourself. The pattern preceding the big Dec event where you got 10” was very favorable. We were coming off an extended -NAO, we had a big 50/50 low and western ridge. Those are all ingredients we need to get big snow events. We also had favorable MJO phase. Next 2 weeks isn’t as favorable....after that we will see.

These were the temps before the event.

View attachment 11338
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You are wasting your time.
 
Brick Tamland said:
All I have said is we are not seeing anything yet as far as a legit threat on the models even though we are going into a pattern that is supposed to be better than normal for producing winter storms. Hopefully, the ensembles are onto something and we will have some legit threats to track soon and things work out.
Click to expand...
You always say our best storms show up out of nowhere. Which is it bro?
 
Kylo said:
I do think we will need the MJO on our side and hopefully we can take a trip through 7-8-1.

View attachment 11341

Phase 5/6 shows Aleutian ridge and western trough, which is what GEFS is showing towards end of its run. If the blocking is legit then warmth will obviously be muted.

View attachment 11342
JanENMJOphase6gt1500mb.gif


But phase 7-8-1 are great for Feb. Bring it on!


View attachment 11344
View attachment 11348
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Lol there ain't no way we're spending any appreciable MJO time this winter over on the left side there. We're going to have to find another way to score. Maybe an unexpected pole shift or a quick Yellowstone eruption.
 
I haven't gone back through and read much of the January thread so someone may have posted it.... but did y'all see this gem? Lol at the 4" island over NC, @SD @Rain Cold @Brick Tamland @packfan98 y'all could chase, should make for an interesting meeting ;):D

snku_acc.us_ma.png
 
The models have backed off on the severity of the cold for the 1/20-21 time frame. Its still going to be our coldest air of the season, but my local NWS (Memphis) has revised temps upward almost 10 degrees since yesterday. I don't know what the next 2-3 weeks hold, but anyone is foolish to get disappointed or let down when an extreme weather event doesn't unfold as modeled 10 days out. Or even 7 days out. We live in the south. There have been some really extreme looks on operational runs and even on some ENS runs lately for severe cold in the next couple of weeks. Can it reach sub zero in the south? Of course. is it likely in any given season? Not at all. Not even when the models are showing it on day 12. They frequently moderate. Modeling winter weather is so difficult in the south because it's almost always a close call. Just sayin we'd all do well to NEVER, EVER get our hopes up on any particular storm beyond about 5 days. Otherwise, you're going to be whining. Life's pretty good when we have time to be on an internet forum complaining that it didn't snow at my house.
 
Rain Cold said:
Lol there ain't no way we're spending any appreciable MJO time this winter over on the left side there. We're going to have to find another way to score. Maybe an unexpected pole shift or a quick Yellowstone eruption.
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Your MJO post from a couple of days ago should be pinned. Because come March we are going to look back and ask how did it go so wrong. Unfavorable tropics/pacific usually rule.

Though totally expect to see snow again mid/late Feb, weenie wishing the MJO continues on to 7-8-1.
 
NWTENN said:
The models have backed off on the severity of the cold for the 1/20-21 time frame. Its still going to be our coldest air of the season, but my local NWS (Memphis) has revised temps upward almost 10 degrees since yesterday. I don't know what the next 2-3 weeks hold, but anyone is foolish to get disappointed or let down when an extreme weather event doesn't unfold as modeled 10 days out. Or even 7 days out. We live in the south. There have been some really extreme looks on operational runs and even on some ENS runs lately for severe cold in the next couple of weeks. Can it reach sub zero in the south? Of course. is it likely in any given season? Not at all. Not even when the models are showing it on day 12. They frequently moderate. Modeling winter weather is so difficult in the south because it's almost always a close call. Just sayin we'd all do well to NEVER, EVER get our hopes up on any particular storm beyond about 5 days. Otherwise, you're going to be whining. Life's pretty good when we have time to be on an internet forum complaining that it didn't snow at my house.
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Good post!

I wish models had a warm bias in the extended. But they don't. You see far more historic cold patterns that don't pan out than warm patterns that don't pan out. You can show me all kinds of pretty ensembles, SSW charts, solar progs, indexes of choice, MJOs, operational models, whatever that are in 100% agreement with the coldest weather ever, and I will take the opposite bet and win 99.9% of the time. It's just the way it works.

It's going to get cold. Historically so, I really doubt it. But hopefully it is enough to allow the things that give us snow to combine to do so. I think it will happen, but I don't think eastern sections of the SE will see much of anything before Feb. I could be wrong, but that's my prediction.
 
I'm having serious thoughts about packing my ---- up and going home from work and never coming back. Im working 7am-1030/11 pm and not sleeping bc i am so stressed. Its not worth it

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