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Misc 2019 Banter & Friendly Conservation

Rain Cold said:
I’m almost 45. We have one kid. Today is his birthday, actually. He’s autistic and has a genetic issue that caused a lot of physical anomalies that resulted in lengthy hospital stays when he was first born. He had to have heart surgery at six weeks, along with a few other procedures. It was a long first year. We were so excited to finally come home from the hospital.

He has a significant conductive hearing loss, but can hear well with hearing aids. He didn’t eat orally until he was 2. We’ve spent 14 years trying to teach him all the things that come normally to most kids, all while trying to work through numerous behavior challenges. My wife homeschools him. She works so hard with him.

He is so capable, if we could ever lick the behavior stuff, which is improving, and move him forward socially, which is also improving. He’s 14 today. It’s an exhausting life, and it’s been a long 14 years.

Being a parent is nothing like I ever imagined the experience would be like. But that’s like a lot of things in life, isn’t it? You deal with the circumstances you have and move forward. It’s all you can do. Anyway, at the end of the day, God is good. Without the strength and peace He has provided to us, we wouldn’t have made it. I’m very blessed to have a son. He’s an amazing boy and he is an amazing testimony to God’s mercy and goodness.
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God bless you and your family!
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
I really don't think the GFS knows what it's doing. On the surface it looks similar-ish to recent runs but if you look on H5 in the hour 200's, that ULL/bowling ball is gone.
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Its obvious it doesn't know what its doing after that -------- 18z run last night.
 
I think it safe to say that whole run of the GFS is garbage. Basically the whole run didn’t make sense after about hour 60. Then it just ruined it the rest of the way. 232FBB5D-363F-4A45-8999-37FD0D96D160.jpeg
 
One thing that is for sure is that the midwest to the northeast looks to get a lot colder for a while, that part has been at least somewhat consistent.
 
DarkKnight said:
I think it safe to say that whole run of the GFS is garbage. Basically the whole run didn’t make sense after about hour 60. Then it just ruined it the rest of the way. View attachment 11311
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This is the part where some goober says “It’S jUsT oNe Of MaNy PoSsIbLe SoLuTiOnS” smdh
 
DarkKnight said:
What do you think is going to happen?? ??
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The thing that is going to happen is usually the thing with the least amount of snow and most amount of red anomolies and rain. If you see a red map you might hate it, but you NEED to hug it for the sake of being right 98% of the time
 
The trick to forecasting winter weather in the south is to put your snow goober emotions to the side and find the map that shows the opposite of what you want. Pick the shittîest map out of all 5,000 ensembles and that one will hit more times than not. If you want to get an accurate ensemble snowfall mean you should toss the top 15 hits for your area, then average it out, then throw it in the trash can
 
Just like the operational models show us, the midwest and northeast will be pretty cold for a while, we will see our days in the 40s and 50s and then it will be March and April and we can end this. Hopefully next year all the seasonal forecasters will use common sense instead of analogs from 1940 and 1977 and just predict temps to be 0-5 above average and be absolutely right.
 
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