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Misc 2019 Banter & Friendly Conservation

Rain Cold said:
I’m almost 45. We have one kid. Today is his birthday, actually. He’s autistic and has a genetic issue that caused a lot of physical anomalies that resulted in lengthy hospital stays when he was first born. He had to have heart surgery at six weeks, along with a few other procedures. It was a long first year. We were so excited to finally come home from the hospital.

He has a significant conductive hearing loss, but can hear well with hearing aids. He didn’t eat orally until he was 2. We’ve spent 14 years trying to teach him all the things that come normally to most kids, all while trying to work through numerous behavior challenges. My wife homeschools him. She works so hard with him.

He is so capable, if we could ever lick the behavior stuff, which is improving, and move him forward socially, which is also improving. He’s 14 today. It’s an exhausting life, and it’s been a long 14 years.

Being a parent is nothing like I ever imagined the experience would be like. But that’s like a lot of things in life, isn’t it? You deal with the circumstances you have and move forward. It’s all you can do. Anyway, at the end of the day, God is good. Without the strength and peace He has provided to us, we wouldn’t have made it. I’m very blessed to have a son. He’s an amazing boy and he is an amazing testimony to God’s mercy and goodness.
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God bless you and your family!
 
Tarheel1 said:
One of them NC folks in the NW piedmont, always talks about a March snow , with temps in the single digits!! I don’t punt until March! :)
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Who am I kidding, somebody hike me the damn ball!
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
I really don't think the GFS knows what it's doing. On the surface it looks similar-ish to recent runs but if you look on H5 in the hour 200's, that ULL/bowling ball is gone.
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Its obvious it doesn't know what its doing after that -------- 18z run last night.
 
I think it safe to say that whole run of the GFS is garbage. Basically the whole run didn’t make sense after about hour 60. Then it just ruined it the rest of the way. 232FBB5D-363F-4A45-8999-37FD0D96D160.jpeg
 
One thing that is for sure is that the midwest to the northeast looks to get a lot colder for a while, that part has been at least somewhat consistent.
 
DarkKnight said:
I think it safe to say that whole run of the GFS is garbage. Basically the whole run didn’t make sense after about hour 60. Then it just ruined it the rest of the way. View attachment 11311
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This is the part where some goober says “It’S jUsT oNe Of MaNy PoSsIbLe SoLuTiOnS” smdh
 
DarkKnight said:
What do you think is going to happen?? ??
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The thing that is going to happen is usually the thing with the least amount of snow and most amount of red anomolies and rain. If you see a red map you might hate it, but you NEED to hug it for the sake of being right 98% of the time
 
The trick to forecasting winter weather in the south is to put your snow goober emotions to the side and find the map that shows the opposite of what you want. Pick the shittîest map out of all 5,000 ensembles and that one will hit more times than not. If you want to get an accurate ensemble snowfall mean you should toss the top 15 hits for your area, then average it out, then throw it in the trash can
 
Just like the operational models show us, the midwest and northeast will be pretty cold for a while, we will see our days in the 40s and 50s and then it will be March and April and we can end this. Hopefully next year all the seasonal forecasters will use common sense instead of analogs from 1940 and 1977 and just predict temps to be 0-5 above average and be absolutely right.
 
And GFS has a parade of clippers to end the run. One of those will surely save us! Hooray8F8F1770-E8ED-4FA9-8C32-48886B020D66.gif
 
We simply don't have winters anymore that are below average region wide and I feel like that it's time for everyone to accept such a fact. Outside of a few anomalies like 2009-2010/2013-2014, winters in the SE will most continue to be above average despite throwing out pre-season analogs like 1940, late Jan. 1936, 1977, 1988, etc. I don't think that this year will end up being an outrageous torch like some have in recent memory, but the prognosticators severely missed the mark whenever we were promised back in November that this winter would be one of the most "epic" ones of the current decade. However, not all is lost and it certainly can snow in winters that are less than ideal. I got snow on January 3, 2002 at my location (I'm probably the worst for snow on here outside of Savannah/Gainesville) and the rest of that winter was an absolute blowtorch. I think that it's crucial to keep the faith that something big will happen, but it's getting to be borderline useless to look at any type of model past five days.
 
Guys no worries. The operational runs can’t figure out the pattern. I promise it WILL snow again. Just not this year
 
Brent said:
climate change is real guys. Future generations will be told how it used to snow...
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It will be interesting when all the averages are done after next year and the 1980s are dropped. I could see places like Columbia having an average high of 60 in January and 95 in July.
 
I tend to think that weather is cyclical and that we currently are in a pattern that isn't as supportive for cold weather as it has been in times past. However, this decade has produced some great winter storms and the storm frequency has seemingly increased than what it was during the 90's. Also, this isn't the first time that we've gone through such a period that featured warm winters. I challenge anyone to go look back at some of the winters during the 30's/50's and you and will realize that this year is benign in terms of heat intensity/lack of snow compared to what they had to endure back then.
 
And a few people earlier today were giving Brick hell for saying we keep pushing things back lol those comments didn’t age well
 
I could be, and probably am completely off base here, but computer models are written to anticipate based on current conditions as well as historical data. Are models having issues because they keep trying to incorporate past data into current scenarios? This the reason we're getting so much variation, but we always correct to the warmer solution the closer we get?
 
Snowflowxxl said:
I got a lot of snow last year so I can’t reallt complain. I’m just mad about this so called “pattern” people were hyping up at 10+ days. Give me a break...
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I did not and I've been bitter and salty ever since :p

but here we are today halfway through met winter and this has to be the most miserable winter so far, so much hype, so much promise of great, and a bunch of nothing so far to show for it
 
I wonder if those who complain about moderation here and us "turning into the other place" can put two and two together and figure out that it may just be their fault. Maybe moderation follows them as individuals? ;)

From what I see, most of our members support how we run this place.
 
Brent said:
I did not and I've been bitter and salty ever since :p

but here we are today halfway through met winter and this has to be the most miserable winter so far, so much hype, so much promise of great, and a bunch of nothing so far to show for it
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You’re the reason we don’t get snow anymore!! Whatever you did to screw up Texas, messed up the whole South!! We used to get all our snows when the low came through TX , with pinks and whites all over Dallas, then we got ours 2 days later! :(
 
It’s happening!! :(100D8459-A779-490A-A887-0CED2F79523F.png54B93AC5-F040-42DF-80B0-59B18B506CA1.png
 
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