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Misc 2019 Banter & Friendly Conservation

WINTER STORMS CANCELED!!! I am with Brick dagnabit!!! How dare the Ensembles runs show snow 6 7 8+ days and take them away and change them to rain. I Couldn't care less about Pattern changing or Ensembles showing a snow storm to track 9 10+ days out only to turn them to rain as they get closer and then show more winter storms for the next week and repeat.

Kicking the Can down the Road. These models can not be consistent more than 6 hours at a time. Now, Now you gonna tell me just wait the pattern is starting to settle in and come Fab Feb we are all gonna get buried.

BULL HONKY!!! when that cold air does finally show up you gonna tell me it surpressing the southern flow to Cuba.

Well I Say NO THANK YOU SIR!!! NO Thank you. I am official canceling WINTER STORMS IN THE SOUTH EAST. NO Snow For You. Nothing to see here just go home.....
 
SD said:
I'm having serious thoughts about packing my poop up and going home from work and never coming back. Im working 7am-1030/11 pm and not sleeping bc i am so stressed. Its not worth it

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Do you at least get time and a half?
 
SD said:
I'm having serious thoughts about packing my poop up and going home from work and never coming back. Im working 7am-1030/11 pm and not sleeping bc i am so stressed. Its not worth it

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Man that's brutal right there..... I got nothing. I feel like I should say "don't do it, you'll regret it, it's not worth that" but ummm if I were in your shoes. Idk that sucks right there.
 
Rain Cold said:
Lol there ain't no way we're spending any appreciable MJO time this winter over on the left side there. We're going to have to find another way to score. Maybe an unexpected pole shift or a quick Yellowstone eruption.
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I read an article last year about Antarctic meteor smoke teleconnections. That will save us. Big boom incoming at 12z..or maybe that’s a thud. Not sure yet
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
I read an article last year about Antarctic meteor smoke teleconnections. That will save us. Big boom incoming at 12z..or maybe that’s a thud. Not sure yet
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I'm expecting a turn-around in the Ops in the next day or so. We're going to start seeing winter storms showing up.

Maybe this post belongs in the Banter thread? :D
 
Tagat said:
WINTER STORMS CANCELED!!! I am with Brick dagnabit!!! How dare the Ensembles runs show snow 6 7 8+ days and take them away and change them to rain. I Couldn't care less about Pattern changing or Ensembles showing a snow storm to track 9 10+ days out only to turn them to rain as they get closer and then show more winter storms for the next week and repeat.

Kicking the Can down the Road. These models can not be consistent more than 6 hours at a time. Now, Now you gonna tell me just wait the pattern is starting to settle in and come Fab Feb we are all gonna get buried.

BULL HONKY!!! when that cold air does finally show up you gonna tell me it surpressing the southern flow to Cuba.

Well I Say NO THANK YOU SIR!!! NO Thank you. I am official canceling WINTER STORMS IN THE SOUTH EAST. NO Snow For You. Nothing to see here just go home.....
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Take notes! This is the proper way to make a “Whambulance Chaser” post!
 
Rain Cold said:
Good post!

I wish models had a warm bias in the extended. But they don't. You see far more historic cold patterns that don't pan out than warm patterns that don't pan out. You can show me all kinds of pretty ensembles, SSW charts, solar progs, indexes of choice, MJOs, operational models, whatever that are in 100% agreement with the coldest weather ever, and I will take the opposite bet and win 99.9% of the time. It's just the way it works.

It's going to get cold. Historically so, I really doubt it. But hopefully it is enough to allow the things that give us snow to combine to do so. I think it will happen, but I don't think eastern sections of the SE will see much of anything before Feb. I could be wrong, but that's my prediction.
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Yes. Historically cold? I haven't really seen anything predicting that, but even if the models were onto something "historical," I'm never going to be the guy who goes to work, church, and home telling everybody about it... chances are always going to be in climatology's favor.... always. We all like the extremes, but that's not how the atmosphere works, and atmospheric forces could NOT care less what we are wishing for.
 
Storm5 said:
If anyone would like to buy the board we will take offers . I’m about to go crazy reading the same complaining posts ten times a day


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I might just pull out the big delete button today to save some of your sanity LOL. Or lock the Jan thread after each run. :p
 
SD said:
I'm having serious thoughts about packing my poop up and going home from work and never coming back. Im working 7am-1030/11 pm and not sleeping bc i am so stressed. Its not worth it

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I know the feeling, my job has me working so much overtime that it takes away from family time and becomes stressful at times. I to also am promise a further up in the company by next month, so will see what happens. I hope my hard work and yours will pay off, if not than it's not worth it..Money isn't everything when it comes to happiness
 
SD said:
No Im salary.

To top it off i keep getting promised the "big future plans" but the can keeps getting kicked or something always comes up

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Sounds a lot like snow in the SE! Wait, did I say that out loud?

Sorry man, that stinks. It might be time to look. Job stress is something that can mess everything else in life up.
 
Man, based off the posts late last night (in that negative posts thread), I'm inspired to make a spinoff post off of it instead of watching a model run. I will say this, I do believe the globe is slowly warming to the extent where some time many many years from now (when all of us will have been dead for a long time) to where life won't be able to exist on this planet, but is it really that noticeable now? We'll see, I'm going to calculate my average temps in January and July from 1990-2018.
 
Tagat said:
WINTER STORMS CANCELED!!! I am with Brick dagnabit!!! How dare the Ensembles runs show snow 6 7 8+ days and take them away and change them to rain. I Couldn't care less about Pattern changing or Ensembles showing a snow storm to track 9 10+ days out only to turn them to rain as they get closer and then show more winter storms for the next week and repeat.

Kicking the Can down the Road. These models can not be consistent more than 6 hours at a time. Now, Now you gonna tell me just wait the pattern is starting to settle in and come Fab Feb we are all gonna get buried.

BULL HONKY!!! when that cold air does finally show up you gonna tell me it surpressing the southern flow to Cuba.

Well I Say NO THANK YOU SIR!!! NO Thank you. I am official canceling WINTER STORMS IN THE SOUTH EAST. NO Snow For You. Nothing to see here just go home.....
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tenor.gif
 
Rain Cold said:
It's essentially scenario forecasting. It's kind of like if you're planning to take your family to the beach this weekend for a nice holiday of fun in the sand. Your initial conditions are that the car works, your boss gives you the weekend off, the forecast is warm and sunny, and you are feeling good.

If you're like Billy Bob, you don't give it a second thought. But if you're like Geoffrey Von Enrich, III, you think it through. What will my weekend look like if my boss makes me work? Maybe we'll stay in town. So we'll maybe we'll end up eating a nice evening meal and going to a movie. Well, what if the movie is sold out? Maybe we'll buy tickets to a concert. Or, maybe I'll send my family ahead to the beach. Ok. Well, what if it rains? Maybe we'll go to the beach anyway but go to the indoor water park. What if my car breaks down? Maybe I rent a car and go to the beach. Or maybe I stay at home and watch movies and play games instead. What if I'm sick. Maybe I stay in bed or send my family ahead to the beach. Or maybe they stay home with me.

How many scenarios end up at the beach? What's the spread on the other outcomes? There's value in gaming it out. If most scenarios still end up with people going to the beach, then you have a pretty solid idea of how the weekend plays out. But if a couple of key things are changed that cause you to end up in a different place, then there's a pretty solid risk to the beach trip.

Meanwhile Billy Bob has no idea what to do when his car breaks down and his boss asks him to come in. He walks to work in the rain and gets the flu.

Anyway, this might be a terrible example. But the point is, models are imperfect and are prone to large errors out in time. Tweaking the initial state of the atmosphere and observing whether or not those tweaks cause large changes in the outcome downstream, provides a good insight as to whether or not you should have confidence in the general pattern being depicted out in time.
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What if you quit your job and you and your family walk to the beach in the pouring rain with pneumonia? No half measures. I think Clark Griswold said it better than I ever could (apologies for the vulgarity/fixed it the best I could)52F65D72-DD2F-4006-B520-AC0391649C67.jpeg
 
SD said:
When the pattern changes and the board wide event is getting within 5 days im giving all the whiners a 5 day ban. Enjoy

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Yeah! So, you guys better watch out in 2035 and make sure you have alternate plans in place!
 
Tagat said:
Well Wouldn't know it. That just take the cake right there.... Someone Quotes your post and gets more likes than the OP. Definitley NO SNOW FOR YOU!!!!!
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Hey now, I was the one person who liked your original post! I liked it so much I commented about it positively. Let everyone else get the snow holes and you and I get the jackpots???
 
Finished what I said I'd do, and it's actually very interesting to me with what I was going through:

January average high for 1990-2018 was 58. Depending on what source you use, that actually averages right out to the historical average. Some sources say 56, but most actually say 58. Through the whole time period, it mostly had it's usual bouncing around from below average to above.
But the July one was the most interesting. As I was going through the later years, especially at 2010-2016, I thought for sure it'd average at least a degree higher than the accepted average of 93. It actually didn't! It averaged right out to 92.9, which I'd round up to 93.
 
Tagat said:
Well Wouldn't know it. That just take the cake right there.... Someone Quotes your post and gets more likes than the OP. Definitley NO SNOW FOR YOU!!!!!
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packfan98 said:
Hey now, I was the one person who liked your original post! I liked it so much I commented about it positively. Let everyone else get the snow holes and you and I get the jackpots???
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I forgot to like it and profoundly apologize. I corrected my mistake.
 
Wow. TWC might want to think about just leaving a reporter in St. Louis for the next 2-3 weeks. They are the jackpot this winter so far.


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packfan98 said:
Hey now, I was the one person who liked your original post! I liked it so much I commented about it positively. Let everyone else get the snow holes and you and I get the jackpots???
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LMAO!!! I was j/k Likes don't mean much to me. I just like this Thread Format. Its fun and helps me to laugh to keep from crying. Its All Good. :cool:;):)
 
Well I just pulled up to the job site but I might have to go back home and change because my pants exploded after that 12z GFS run. Textbook run so far. What more can you ask for? Certainly not snow
 
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