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Misc 2019 Banter & Friendly Conservation

When Larry Cosgrove and JB , are your last holdouts for winter not being over........??????
 
GaWx said:
Analogs are tools, not crystal balls. Just because the tools don't always work doesn't mean the tools becomes useless. Using them is still better than flipping a coin or going contrarian imo. Sometimes the tools need to be sharpened though.
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But models are tools for predicting weather pattern and events? I know they are not analogs, but they should be sort of a crystal ball, but when they flip flop from run to run, all winter, show fantasy snows and NAO blocks all winter, that never come to fruition, what do you do?? If you can’t go by analogs and or models, that’s when you get back to basics like, wooly worms, persimmon seeds, fruits and berry heaviness??
 
GaWx said:
Analogs are tools, not crystal balls. Just because the tools don't always work doesn't mean the tools becomes useless. Using them is still better than flipping a coin or going contrarian imo. Sometimes the tools need to be sharpened though.
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Also, I believe a coin flip would have gotten a lot more right winter forecasts this year!? By law of averages, there would have been about 50% of warm coin flips, instead of 95% going cold and snowy East
 
Again, let me say hoe happy I am for Seattle!!! It’s not everyday a city gets 300-400% of their yearly snow averages, in a two week spann!! Congrats to them!!☃️☃️☃️
 
Tarheel1 said:
But models are tools for predicting weather pattern and events? I know they are not analogs, but they should be sort of a crystal ball, but when they flip flop from run to run, all winter, show fantasy snows and NAO blocks all winter, that never come to fruition, what do you do?? If you can’t go by analogs and or models, that’s when you get back to basics like, wooly worms, persimmon seeds, fruits and berry heaviness??
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No. You go back to actually looking at weather, and use just a modicum of common sense blended with experience (not just your own, but historical). And yes, little critters do have a 6th sense ...

and as for looking at weather ...

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/500hPa/orthographic=-99.29,49.14,425

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-74.21,21.02,1907

Screen Shot 2019-02-10 at 5.41.00 PM.jpgScreen Shot 2019-02-10 at 5.39.19 PM.jpg

http://squall.sfsu.edu/scripts/namjetstream_model_fcst.html

jetstream_norhem_00.gif
 
The models have been poor when showing cold/wintry more than when showing warm in the SE this winter. In other words, they've been cold biased. So, when they show cold/wintry, I'm more skeptical than if they show warmth.
The models are far from useless out to about 10 days and have some skill for days 11-14. After that, there's very little skill.
 
GaWx said:
The models have been poor when showing cold/wintry more than when showing warm in the SE this winter. In other words, they've been cold biased. So, when they show cold/wintry, I'm more skeptical than if they show warmth.
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Dadgum, Larry, you banter well ...
 
GaWx said:
Not at all as it is never too early to speculate about next winter. A strong La Nina is almost never desirable for the SE per longterm climo.
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Odd I know, but Raleigh averages most snow in strong or super Nina’s, dating back to 1886 based on Webber’s enso data and my research. Given how this year has turned out, I’ll take my chances with a strong Nina. This is region specific, and I doubt a majority of the SE does well...just my 2c. DCA for instance does incredibly better in ninos.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
It is simple. Moderate to strong La Nina has favored warmer than normal SE winters on average. Warmer than normal SE winters have favored less wintry precip than near normal on average and near normal less wintry precip than colder than normal on average. There are always some exceptions like 2010-11 but that doesn't change the longterm averages for moderate to strong La Nina.

Weak to low end mod La Ninas have been a different animal vs stronger ones on average. They don't average warm though they aren't as cold as weak to mod El Ninos.
 
packfan98 said:
Judah Cohen has zero credibility to me. This is the 3rd year in a row that we've been seeing his tweets I believe. I stopped following after the first year. SSW events are mildly interesting, but their effect on the SE is questionable.
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JC has done poorly overall with regard to the -AO since I've been reading his tweets/blogs. The Oct Siberian snow stuff has been a poor predictor of the winter -AO. It has done so poorly that I no longer follow it much in Oct. Now, I don't know if he's the main person who's been pushing the SSW stuff or not and it is debatable if the rather strong SSW of late Dec had a significant impact on the late Jan -AO as the Midwest got frigid. One thing up for debate is just how strong was the late Dec SSW. By some measures like amount of temp rise 60-90N, it wasn't all that strong/as strong as I expected. Regardless, I think of those things as unicorny.
 
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