When Larry Cosgrove and JB , are your last holdouts for winter not being over........??????
Analogs are tools, not crystal balls. Just because the tools don't always work doesn't mean the tools becomes useless. Using them is still better than flipping a coin or going contrarian imo. Sometimes the tools need to be sharpened though.
Analogs are tools, not crystal balls. Just because the tools don't always work doesn't mean the tools becomes useless. Using them is still better than flipping a coin or going contrarian imo. Sometimes the tools need to be sharpened though.
If you leave now, you can still get there by 6-7 PM and watch, catch a Pearl Jam concert, stay through Wed, I think they get 5-10” , on top of the 2-4” they get tonight!!??Radar filling in nicely!....west of Seattle smh
No. You go back to actually looking at weather, and use just a modicum of common sense blended with experience (not just your own, but historical). And yes, little critters do have a 6th sense ...But models are tools for predicting weather pattern and events? I know they are not analogs, but they should be sort of a crystal ball, but when they flip flop from run to run, all winter, show fantasy snows and NAO blocks all winter, that never come to fruition, what do you do?? If you can’t go by analogs and or models, that’s when you get back to basics like, wooly worms, persimmon seeds, fruits and berry heaviness??
I'll say I wish not to have such a winter and take my chances with a La-Nina.
Dadgum, Larry, you banter well ...The models have been poor when showing cold/wintry more than when showing warm in the SE this winter. In other words, they've been cold biased. So, when they show cold/wintry, I'm more skeptical than if they show warmth.
Not at all as it is never too early to speculate about next winter. A strong La Nina is almost never desirable for the SE per longterm climo.
Just to hold feet to the fire (pun very much intended) ... normal as opposed to what?Next winter will be warmer than normal.
Judah Cohen has zero credibility to me. This is the 3rd year in a row that we've been seeing his tweets I believe. I stopped following after the first year. SSW events are mildly interesting, but their effect on the SE is questionable.