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Misc 2019 Banter & Friendly Conservation

When Larry Cosgrove and JB , are your last holdouts for winter not being over........??????
 
GaWx said:
Analogs are tools, not crystal balls. Just because the tools don't always work doesn't mean the tools becomes useless. Using them is still better than flipping a coin or going contrarian imo. Sometimes the tools need to be sharpened though.
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But models are tools for predicting weather pattern and events? I know they are not analogs, but they should be sort of a crystal ball, but when they flip flop from run to run, all winter, show fantasy snows and NAO blocks all winter, that never come to fruition, what do you do?? If you can’t go by analogs and or models, that’s when you get back to basics like, wooly worms, persimmon seeds, fruits and berry heaviness??
 
GaWx said:
Analogs are tools, not crystal balls. Just because the tools don't always work doesn't mean the tools becomes useless. Using them is still better than flipping a coin or going contrarian imo. Sometimes the tools need to be sharpened though.
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Also, I believe a coin flip would have gotten a lot more right winter forecasts this year!? By law of averages, there would have been about 50% of warm coin flips, instead of 95% going cold and snowy East
 
Again, let me say hoe happy I am for Seattle!!! It’s not everyday a city gets 300-400% of their yearly snow averages, in a two week spann!! Congrats to them!!☃️☃️☃️
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Radar filling in nicely!....west of Seattle smh
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If you leave now, you can still get there by 6-7 PM and watch, catch a Pearl Jam concert, stay through Wed, I think they get 5-10” , on top of the 2-4” they get tonight!!??
 
Tarheel1 said:
But models are tools for predicting weather pattern and events? I know they are not analogs, but they should be sort of a crystal ball, but when they flip flop from run to run, all winter, show fantasy snows and NAO blocks all winter, that never come to fruition, what do you do?? If you can’t go by analogs and or models, that’s when you get back to basics like, wooly worms, persimmon seeds, fruits and berry heaviness??
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No. You go back to actually looking at weather, and use just a modicum of common sense blended with experience (not just your own, but historical). And yes, little critters do have a 6th sense ...

and as for looking at weather ...

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/500hPa/orthographic=-99.29,49.14,425

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-74.21,21.02,1907

Screen Shot 2019-02-10 at 5.41.00 PM.jpgScreen Shot 2019-02-10 at 5.39.19 PM.jpg

http://squall.sfsu.edu/scripts/namjetstream_model_fcst.html

jetstream_norhem_00.gif
 
The models have been poor when showing cold/wintry more than when showing warm in the SE this winter. In other words, they've been cold biased. So, when they show cold/wintry, I'm more skeptical than if they show warmth.
The models are far from useless out to about 10 days and have some skill for days 11-14. After that, there's very little skill.
 
GaWx said:
The models have been poor when showing cold/wintry more than when showing warm in the SE this winter. In other words, they've been cold biased. So, when they show cold/wintry, I'm more skeptical than if they show warmth.
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Dadgum, Larry, you banter well ...
 
GaWx said:
Not at all as it is never too early to speculate about next winter. A strong La Nina is almost never desirable for the SE per longterm climo.
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Odd I know, but Raleigh averages most snow in strong or super Nina’s, dating back to 1886 based on Webber’s enso data and my research. Given how this year has turned out, I’ll take my chances with a strong Nina. This is region specific, and I doubt a majority of the SE does well...just my 2c. DCA for instance does incredibly better in ninos.

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It is simple. Moderate to strong La Nina has favored warmer than normal SE winters on average. Warmer than normal SE winters have favored less wintry precip than near normal on average and near normal less wintry precip than colder than normal on average. There are always some exceptions like 2010-11 but that doesn't change the longterm averages for moderate to strong La Nina.

Weak to low end mod La Ninas have been a different animal vs stronger ones on average. They don't average warm though they aren't as cold as weak to mod El Ninos.
 
packfan98 said:
Judah Cohen has zero credibility to me. This is the 3rd year in a row that we've been seeing his tweets I believe. I stopped following after the first year. SSW events are mildly interesting, but their effect on the SE is questionable.
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JC has done poorly overall with regard to the -AO since I've been reading his tweets/blogs. The Oct Siberian snow stuff has been a poor predictor of the winter -AO. It has done so poorly that I no longer follow it much in Oct. Now, I don't know if he's the main person who's been pushing the SSW stuff or not and it is debatable if the rather strong SSW of late Dec had a significant impact on the late Jan -AO as the Midwest got frigid. One thing up for debate is just how strong was the late Dec SSW. By some measures like amount of temp rise 60-90N, it wasn't all that strong/as strong as I expected. Regardless, I think of those things as unicorny.
 
Don’t think we need to be called out in the main thread, as that seems banterish in itself?? We may be stupid, but gollllley , when our posts disappear, we know who we are!! Thanks
 
packfan98 said:
Judah Cohen has zero credibility to me. This is the 3rd year in a row that we've been seeing his tweets I believe. I stopped following after the first year. SSW events are mildly interesting, but their effect on the SE is questionable.
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True. Anybody can look at modeled Strat Warming and say “hey maybe cold maybe not somewhere down the line but if it does get cold Europe will see it first.”
 
Oh no you don't at the ensembles. Actually, it'd be the one time something panned out, as the way it's going, although I looked again and I'd be excited to go there, I will be heading down to Florida and to see the linger lodge (which is mainly for my parents' 25th anniversary) sometime around that time.
 
Tarheel1 said:
Don’t think we need to be called out in the main thread, as that seems banterish in itself?? We may be stupid, but gollllley , when our posts disappear, we know who we are!! Thanks
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I may not know how a cloud is formed, what a ridge actually is, or how to spell “trawf?” but I know this winter sucks and I hope Seattle breaks off the CONUS and falls into the Pacific Ocean
 
If would be a fools errand to think anybody on this entire god foresaken forum sees any kind of substantial frozen precipitation from here on out. Even if the pattern flips and it stops snowing in Seattle we will still have to battle the bigger pattern at play which is heat with transient cold no matter what’s going on at 500. The models suck in the long range because we suck at holding a pattern. It’s hard to predict weather when Mother Nature wants to be 80 one day and 30 the next. It’s the perfect recipe to consistently whiff
 
Idk why people don't want to take their chances at a Nino, although admittedly , if you could tell me that I'm not going to get snow, I'd probably rather have a dry winter with a Nina. I'll take a shot at a Nino, a real one unless it's beyond moderate and is strong. 09/10 wasn't quite one of my favorite winters because of circumstances with two other winters, but it did produce my favorite type of snow, wet snow that sticks to everything once it starts sticking.

And I'd kinda like to get another snow like that before it's moving time again for me, which I HOPE will be sometime in 2021. I know I didn't dream that snow up.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
If would be a fools errand to think anybody on this entire god foresaken forum sees any kind of substantial frozen precipitation from here on out. Even if the pattern flips and it stops snowing in Seattle we will still have to battle the bigger pattern at play which is heat with transient cold no matter what’s going on at 500. The models suck in the long range because we suck at holding a pattern. It’s hard to predict weather when Mother Nature wants to be 80 one day and 30 the next. It’s the perfect recipe to consistently whiff
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It sleeted in Simpsonville yesterday!! #WIN!! ?
 
Ooooooooooh, that 18z GEFS
#GOOSEBUMPS
#LOADED
#FAILBOATLAUNCHINGNOW
 
We need the whammy thread back.... I need to do some serious venting or crying but I'm more mature these days so I'll pray and work my butt off. Just discovered an invisible slow leak under the toilet of my kids bathroom..... guess how I found it? I noticed the toilet was loose except it was loose because the subflooring is rotten and it was sinking into the floor!!! The water has been leaking under the linoleum so it wasn't visible, never a drop of water seeped out where it would have been discovered. Unbelievable..... so this is yet another issue I've had with my home this year thanks to water damage. I still haven't finished the issue with rotten rim joist at back of my house ok I'm done sorry folks, it's just the joys of homeownership

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Tarheel1 said:
Ooooooooooh, that 18z GEFS
#GOOSEBUMPS
#LOADED
#FAILBOATLAUNCHINGNOW
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I see you're back to normal, glad your better..... and don't let the non winter blues send you back to the hospital it's just weather.

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A member of a car group I'm in on Facebook took a trip through the NE GA mountains this afternoon and hit a sheet of black ice. Car is totaled, but he's fine. Someone posted saying they saw icicles hanging off of the signs up in that same region and noped outta there.
 
metwannabe said:
We need the whammy thread back.... I need to do some serious venting or crying but I'm more mature these days so I'll pray and work my butt off. Just discovered an invisible slow leak under the toilet of my kids bathroom..... guess how I found it? I noticed the toilet was loose except it was loose because the subflooring is rotten and it was sinking into the floor!!! The water has been leaking under the linoleum so it wasn't visible, never a drop of water seeped out where it would have been discovered. Unbelievable..... so this is yet another issue I've had with my home this year thanks to water damage. I still haven't finished the issue with rotten rim joist at back of my house ok I'm done sorry folks, it's just the joys of homeownership

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
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“It’s always something” this is usually my go-to talking point when talking with strangers and trying to find commonality
 
metwannabe said:
We need the whammy thread back.... I need to do some serious venting or crying but I'm more mature these days so I'll pray and work my butt off. Just discovered an invisible slow leak under the toilet of my kids bathroom..... guess how I found it? I noticed the toilet was loose except it was loose because the subflooring is rotten and it was sinking into the floor!!! The water has been leaking under the linoleum so it wasn't visible, never a drop of water seeped out where it would have been discovered. Unbelievable..... so this is yet another issue I've had with my home this year thanks to water damage. I still haven't finished the issue with rotten rim joist at back of my house ok I'm done sorry folks, it's just the joys of homeownership

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
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Sheash, that is a midget list compared to mine.......
 
packfan98 said:
Judah Cohen has zero credibility to me. This is the 3rd year in a row that we've been seeing his tweets I believe. I stopped following after the first year. SSW events are mildly interesting, but their effect on the SE is questionable.
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Yeah, Ive been hearing of his stuff for years. It started with the snowpack relation to the AO as RC said. I gave Cohen one more shot this year and his ideas failed miserably again. In fact Im still waiting on him to be correct once.
 
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