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Misc 2019 Banter & Friendly Conservation

Since this winter is behaving like none other, there really are no analogs to go by for the rest of the winter and spring. We really have no idea what to expect as winter closes and what to expect this spring. We literally could see anything from a late February through March snow bonanza to an early summer ala 2012 like spring.
 
Can someone go ahead and start the 2019-20 winter speculation thread? Preliminary indications are that we'll have a better than average shot at a legit El Nino next winter, which would generally be more favorable than average for SE cold chances assuming any Nino isn't superstrong and is more favorable than average for SE snow.
So, something to look forward to despite the current gloom. Patience is a virtue.
 
GaWx said:
Can someone go ahead and start the 2019-20 winter speculation thread? Preliminary indications are that we'll have a better than average shot at a legit El Nino next winter, which would generally be more favorable than average for SE cold chances assuming any Nino isn't superstrong and is more favorable than average for SE snow.
So, something to look forward to despite the current gloom. Patience is a virtue.
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HA HA HA ... :cool:
 
GaWx said:
Can someone go ahead and start the 2019-20 winter speculation thread? Preliminary indications are that we'll have a better than average shot at a legit El Nino next winter, which would generally be more favorable than average for SE cold chances assuming any Nino isn't superstrong and is more favorable than average for SE snow.
So, something to look forward to despite the current gloom. Patience is a virtue.
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I'll say I wish not to have such a winter and take my chances with a La-Nina.
 
GaWx said:
Can someone go ahead and start the 2019-20 winter speculation thread? Preliminary indications are that we'll have a better than average shot at a legit El Nino next winter, which would generally be more favorable than average for SE cold chances assuming any Nino isn't superstrong and is more favorable than average for SE snow.
So, something to look forward to despite the current gloom. Patience is a virtue.
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Honestly, whats the point of speculating about winter ? Nobody knows will happen. You can use all the analogs you want. It doesn't matter. Lets throw out all the seasonal forecasts and just take it one week at a time.
 
pcbjr said:
HA HA HA ... :cool:
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Just trying to be positive about some winter even if it isn't the current one. Next winter is a whole new ballgame and elevated El Nino chances are something to latch onto/desirable per longterm history.
I do have to wonder if JB will go very cold in the E again. I actually hope not. It would be refreshing if he were warm for a change and it would be funny if he were then wrong,
 
Webberweather53 said:
We're definitely not in neutral ENSO anymore even though the sensible impacts in the SE US aren't what you'd expect in an El Nino February, you simply don't get 3 successive westerly wind burst events, and one w/ > 20 m/s westerly wind anomalies at the dateline in the central Pacific w/o the background state having been already predisposed towards an El Nino to support convection there that non linearly reinforces the subseasonally-induced wind anomaly.

This gigantic dateline westerly wind burst is going to set off a pretty substantial downwelling oceanic kelvin wave that'll kickstart a legitimate moderate-strong El Nino later this year and into the winter of 2019-20.
View attachment 15390


The RMM phase regression maps from Roundy's site don't line up as well when centered over the current period of Feb 10, but w/ early March. The only difference between the regression maps from now vs early March is the OLR (shading) is stronger & further east in the Pacific which better matches the current base state that's either neutral ENSO w/ a clear cut (ongoing) advancement towards El Nino or weak El Nino.
View attachment 15389

It's amazing how well this map predicts/corresponds to the current pattern.

View attachment 15391
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Is Kelvin Wave an NFL star?
 
So apparently I'm entitled because i wont shut up elsewhere about Dallas always missing out on snow

Well do you blame me all i want is our average for the first time in 4 years
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Honestly, whats the point of speculating about winter ? Nobody knows will happen. You can use all the analogs you want. It doesn't matter. Lets throw out all the seasonal forecasts and just take it one week at a time.
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That will never happen on a wx forum. Not knowing what will happen is what makes it fun to speculate in the first place. Wx hobbyists are always speculating. about the future.
 
Very long range, but will we continue to see a more dominant Pacific, enough to offset a very good solar min? Warning of both the PAC/ATL has to be taken in to consideration, especially in to the Gulf of Alaska/Prince William Sound region, very long fetch off the Pacific. Seattle could very well be the west coast Boston in 3-5 years.
 
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GaWx said:
Just trying to be positive about some winter even if it isn't the current one. Next winter is a whole new ballgame and elevated El Nino chances are something to latch onto/desirable per longterm history.
I do have to wonder if JB will go very cold in the E again. I actually hope not. It would be refreshing if he were warm for a change and it would be funny if he were then wrong,
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Since weather doesn’t seem to follow anallogs, or indices anymore and the models are worthless, not really looking forward to any winter , anymore! ????
 
pcbjr said:
... are we not just a wee, tad bit ahead of ourselves ... o_O
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Not at all as it is never too early to speculate about next winter. A strong La Nina is almost never desirable for the SE per longterm climo.
 
GaWx said:
Not at all as it is never too early to speculate about next winter. A strong La Nina is almost never desirable for the SE per longterm climo.
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A low to moderate midooki El Niño , was supposed to be the best ever winter for E/SE, how’s that working out??
 
GaWx said:
if La Nina, hopefully it would be weak to low end moderate like 2017-8. Strong ones like 2010-11 don't normally provide the SE with a good winter.
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What's funny is that was actually the best winter I've had around here. 3 different storms including the Christmas one followed by the 8 or so inches in January. Had one small inch event in February and from what I can remember, it wasn't all that warm either.
 
GaWx said:
Not at all as it is never too early to speculate about next winter. A strong La Nina is almost never desirable for the SE per longterm climo.
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OK ... I'll defer further feeble attempts at humor in an otherwise crappy situation ... ;)

...and I'll continue to ignore 15 day models ...:oops:
 
I'll take my shot with an El Nino unless it's very strong, but this year might be a look into a future of where mother nature is going to do whatever it wants and those that are smarter than me might have to change their long range forecasting.

Can't lie though, the memories of 10/11 are irreplaceable even if we know why it ended up that way. Predictions of a very warm winter and oops, it wasn't that. Playing in the snow in front of my grandma's old place up in NW Georgia on Christmas Day and being so excited about to snow that I didn't open presents for a while. It's too bad that this major positive bust on long range forecasts isn't fresher in memories.
 
Tarheel1 said:
A low to moderate midooki El Niño , was supposed to be the best ever winter for E/SE, how’s that working out??
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Analogs are tools, not crystal balls. Just because the tools don't always work doesn't mean the tools becomes useless. Using them is still better than flipping a coin or going contrarian imo. Sometimes the tools need to be sharpened though.
 
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