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Tropical 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season & Model Discussion

Brent said:
Um we have 94L out of nowhere apparently lol I've seen zero support for a storm on the models but who knows...

View attachment 21207

1. A tropical wave located about 300 miles east of the Central Bahamas
is producing disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms. Although
environmental conditions are currently unfavorable for development,
they are expected to become a little more conducive over the next
few days while the disturbance moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.
Interests in the Central and Northwest Bahamas, and the southern
Florida peninsula and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress
of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Click to expand...
Wow!! didn't see this
 
Avalanche said:
Any chance the Carolinas could see some tropical moisture from this?
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Based on current forecast, outside of immediate coast, I don’t think so. The W Carolinas and GA, will be on the subsidence side, hot and dry
 
Not sure if we get any development out of gulf low.
ecmwf_T850_seus_5.png
 
Odds have increased to 30/30.

Showers and thunderstorms over the Northwest Bahamas and the
adjacent waters are associated with a trough of low pressure.
Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for
development during the next couple of days while the trough moves
west-northwestward to northwestward at around 15 mph. Additional
development is not anticipated after that time due to strong
upper-level winds.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
 
Yeah its not looking terrible all things considered......its probably not going to amount to much but might enhance rainfall over the Carolina's when it hooks up with the front.....assuming it gets far enough north in time.
 
Hmmm interesting look

goes16_vis-swir_94L_201907221637.jpg

looks like possible recon tomorrow

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (EAST OF FLORIDA)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 75
A. 23/1800Z A. 24/0530Z,1130Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST B. AFXXX 0203A CYCLONE
C. 23/1615Z C. 24/0300Z
D. 29.5N 80.2W D. 33.0N 78.5W
E. 23/1730Z TO 23/2200Z E. 24/0500Z TO 24/1130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
 
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BHS1975 said:
I was hoping it would merge with the front and dump more rain.


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Click to expand...
Maybe for Eastern sections, but timing is off, front too late
 
Code Orange

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Jul 22 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms have increased in association with an
area of low pressure located near Andros Island in the Bahamas.
While environmental conditions are only marginally conducive for
development, only a slight increase in the organization of this
system could result in the formation of a tropical depression later
today or tonight. Additional development is not anticipated after
that time due to strong upper-level winds. The low is expected to
move northwestward around 15 mph today and north-northwestward to
northward tonight and Tuesday, remaining offshore of the east coast
of the Florida peninsula. This system will continue to produce
locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds over portions of the
northwest Bahamas through tonight. Showers and thunderstorms could
also spread over portions of the east coast of the Florida peninsula
tonight and Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
 
Brent said:
Code Orange

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Jul 22 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms have increased in association with an
area of low pressure located near Andros Island in the Bahamas.
While environmental conditions are only marginally conducive for
development, only a slight increase in the organization of this
system could result in the formation of a tropical depression later
today or tonight. Additional development is not anticipated after
that time due to strong upper-level winds. The low is expected to
move northwestward around 15 mph today and north-northwestward to
northward tonight and Tuesday, remaining offshore of the east coast
of the Florida peninsula. This system will continue to produce
locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds over portions of the
northwest Bahamas through tonight. Showers and thunderstorms could
also spread over portions of the east coast of the Florida peninsula
tonight and Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
Click to expand...
That escalated quickly..
 
While TD3 is around right now a new area of interest has developed in the Gulf of Mexico currently 0/20 chance to develop.



1. A non-tropical low pressure area could form over the northern Gulf
of Mexico by late Wednesday or Thursday. Thereafter, this system
has the potential to acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics
while it moves slowly eastward to northeastward over warm waters
through the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

61A926FB-CE1B-4208-BD13-7246D96E098E.png
 
BufordWX said:
While TD3 is around right now a new area of interest has developed in the Gulf of Mexico currently 0/20 chance to develop.



1. A non-tropical low pressure area could form over the northern Gulf
of Mexico by late Wednesday or Thursday. Thereafter, this system
has the potential to acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics
while it moves slowly eastward to northeastward over warm waters
through the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

View attachment 21233
Click to expand...
I've been watching this over a week now
 
The short range models show some mischief on the tail end of the front.


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BufordWX said:
While TD3 is around right now a new area of interest has developed in the Gulf of Mexico currently 0/20 chance to develop.



1. A non-tropical low pressure area could form over the northern Gulf
of Mexico by late Wednesday or Thursday. Thereafter, this system
has the potential to acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics
while it moves slowly eastward to northeastward over warm waters
through the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

View attachment 21233
Click to expand...
As of 2 pm chances have decreased to 10/10.

Disorganized cloudiness and showers stretching over the northern
Gulf of Mexico are associated with a frontal boundary. A broad
area of low pressure is expected to form along this boundary
tonight. Dry air and unfavorable upper-level winds, however, are
likely to inhibit significant development during the next couple of
days while the disturbance meanders near the northwestern Gulf
Coast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
 
Just something to watch and I know it’s at the end of the run but the Icon has repeatedly shown a system in the Atlantic heading towards the east coast
 
Ethan80963 said:
Just something to watch and I know it’s at the end of the run but the Icon has repeatedly shown a system in the Atlantic heading towards the east coast
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Yeah and with that trough moving out the ridge to the west will cause it hook towards the west.


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Webberweather53 said:
The tropical wave around 35-40W is pretty interesting. We got to see what it looked like under the hood w/ the most recent ASCAT pass and it's definitely worth watching.
Click to expand...


Is this the one the ICON shows at the end of the run?


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Based on the euro so far it looks to be jumping on the idea as well
 
The 0z UKMET has a tropical system at the end of its run witch it didn’t have in previous runs
 
ICON consistent with 12z July 26 and 00z July 27 on August 23. Further west in this run.
 

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Pattern supports recurvature away from east coast in my opinion and my opinion only. Anything that can develop in Gulf, below Florida or the Caribbean are going to be the ones to watch.
 
It looks like the pattern is getting less favorable for recurvature as we get into August.


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As long as the trough stays in the East, the Eastern seaboard will be safe
 
Noon ICON stays with their previous east coast runs , just a tad weaker.
Euro 12z getting on board with the monster high moving east to open the door.
GPS, NADA....
 
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