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Wintry 2/11-2/12 ULL Magic or More Cold Rain

Just came out of a physics lab to see the GFS pasting me. Vibes are up right now no doubt
 
NoSnowATL said:
Was never a I-20 storm to start.
Click to expand...

Depends on when you identify the “start”. That goofy GFS run about 4 or 5 days ago put down a widespread 1-2 inches pretty close to I-20. It vanished and then the trends over the last 24 hours made it interesting.

But not that interesting.


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ATLwxfan said:
Depends on when you identify the “start”. That goofy GFS run about 4 or 5 days ago put down a widespread 1-2 inches pretty close to I-20. It vanished and then the trends over the last 24 hours made it interesting.

But not that interesting.


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Click to expand...
Yea the GFS is crazy. Trends will continue and hopefully for the better.
 
Looking at the evolution I mean this is the most marginal thing I’ve ever seen. Almost like if you’re going to see snow with this system you’re also going to see rain too. Dynamics will play a huge roll. We need rates absolutely to bring the cold air down. But these upper level lows are known for providing those rates. This looks like it’s going to paste somebody up for sure. 1675809939551.gif
 
1676376000-zhx8Ywh4VYE.png
 
RAH now talking:

Additional precipitation may continue from Saturday into Sunday as
the mid/upper trough swings through. Models have trended
significantly slower with the trough, with a closed low even
developing and tracking to our south, helping a surface low deepen
off the NC coast. This would result in a wetter solution for our
region than previously thought, so bumped up POPs to chance during
this period. Northerly flow around the low and a weak high over New
England may result in temperatures cold enough for some snow or
mixed rain/snow. The 12z GFS is especially aggressive with depicting
this potential, but even the 12z ECMWF trended more in this
direction. Model soundings appear it would be more of question of
rain vs snow instead of ice. Almost half of 12z GEFS at least have
some measurable snow in some part of central NC, with less CMC
ensembles and only a small percentage of ECMWF ensembles showing it.
Uncertainty this far out is quite high, and would like to see more
consistency in the models. Even still, the latest model trends at
least justified introducing a chance of rain or snow in most places
Saturday night. Because of the uncertainty in the overall setup this
weekend, confidence in temperatures this weekend is low, but for now
forecast highs are slightly below normal.
 
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