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Wintry 2/11-2/12 ULL Magic or More Cold Rain

BullCityWx said:
and just for the record, it was nearly 70 two days before that happened.
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To be fair that's pretty typical once you get into late Feb and March, early Feb a little less so, but shoot that's how we roll
 
Eventually we get cold enough aloft and these upper lows are known to have mesoscale desires that’ll make people happy even if u do start as rain. But I certainly like where we are at right now. There will be a windshield type of effect on models so we just gotta see how far we go one way and then eventually it’ll probably correct back east.. still no clue where the sweet spot sets up but it’s looking likely someone is going to be happy in the south or mid Atlantic with this thing
 
The trends have been one way since last night... more separation and quicker to cut off. If it goes anymore in that direction we will be losing it outside of mountain locations.

On the plus side, the slower/more seperated evolution like the 18z GFS and 12z Ukmet build in a decent CAD high and Northeasterly winds Saturday night.

Whoever winds up just north of the bowling ball pivot point should get crushed... Could be Northern Georgia and the mountains, could be eastern NC or Central, VA.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Still not a bad trend and very very close at least here for N GA. More precip helps and with heavier precip it might work with the rates
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It would be a crush job for you. GFS keeps this B.S. boundary temp of 36/37 for 6 straight hours of heavy rates in Buford, Ga.

That would flip to snow and rip at 32. No doubt in my mind.Screen Shot 2023-02-07 at 5.18.59 PM.png
 
BullCityWx said:
#1 CIPS analog for Hour 108 on the 12z GFS: 3/1/09

#6 CIPS analog was 1/25/00.
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Nice!

march_1-2_2009_nc_snowmap.gif
 
The fly in the ointment is the less stream interaction early on, the less cold aloft we have to work with. Particularly for N. Ga and the SC Upstate.

It's been a while since we've seen a ULL trend stronger in the SE. This one sure looks to be making a run for it though.

Remembering 03/02/09 in mby, time of day matters. What would have easily been more than a foot of snow struggled to accumulate half of that in spite of insane rates right under the pivot point at 34 degrees. The timing looks to be good as of now for most.
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
The fly in the ointment is the less stream interaction early on, the less cold aloft we have to work with. Particularly for N. Ga and the SC Upstate.

It's been a while since we've seen a ULL trend stronger in the SE. This one sure looks to be making a run for it though.

Remembering 02/09 in mby, time of day matters. What would have easily been more than a foot of snow struggled to accumulate half of that in spite of insane rates right under the pivot point at 34 degrees. The timing looks to be good as of now for most.
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Did you mean 3/09 ?
 
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