Cary_Snow95
Member
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To be fair that's pretty typical once you get into late Feb and March, early Feb a little less so, but shoot that's how we roll
Don’t know if we want it to trend too far west or the cold air will run itself out
Cary_Snow95
Member
Looks like it closed off too soon and is gonna be a VA hit
and in the 80s a few days after
Cary_Snow95
Member
Meh 
Nope too soon and it's a mountain only special, just look at 12z Ukie
Downeastnc
Member
yeah need it to wait....
iGRXY
Member
GFS has snow. But that is as far west as you want to see this go.
Cary_Snow95
Member
rburrel2
Member
This is the ideal track for the Upstate. Verbatim the GFS had the boundary layer a touch too warm, but that would correct colder if it played out as depicted.
Eventually we get cold enough aloft and these upper lows are known to have mesoscale desires that’ll make people happy even if u do start as rain. But I certainly like where we are at right now. There will be a windshield type of effect on models so we just gotta see how far we go one way and then eventually it’ll probably correct back east.. still no clue where the sweet spot sets up but it’s looking likely someone is going to be happy in the south or mid Atlantic with this thing
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Absolute paste bomb for the mtns, foothills, and SW VA that run of GFS.
500 low was about 75 miles west on the GFS vs ICON. Thats your ball game this run.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Can already see through just 48 hours the GEFS has less stream interaction like the OP.
FInally a better ICON map. I'd cut this in half expecting 5:1 ratios but would still save winter:
rburrel2
Member
The trends have been one way since last night... more separation and quicker to cut off. If it goes anymore in that direction we will be losing it outside of mountain locations.
On the plus side, the slower/more seperated evolution like the 18z GFS and 12z Ukmet build in a decent CAD high and Northeasterly winds Saturday night.
Whoever winds up just north of the bowling ball pivot point should get crushed... Could be Northern Georgia and the mountains, could be eastern NC or Central, VA.
On the plus side, the slower/more seperated evolution like the 18z GFS and 12z Ukmet build in a decent CAD high and Northeasterly winds Saturday night.
Whoever winds up just north of the bowling ball pivot point should get crushed... Could be Northern Georgia and the mountains, could be eastern NC or Central, VA.
Would not be 10:1 more like 7-8:1