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Wintry 2/11-2/12 ULL Magic or More Cold Rain

packfan98 said:
Looks like we may trend too far past the sweet spot and western Virginia and the Mid Atlantic crew may be in the crosshairs.
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Too early to really tell.. tbh these upper lows are better to be seen by short range models and their mesoscale abilities to pinpoint higher res stuff .. can’t be mad at this look for anyone right now
 
some thoughts;
1. the mountains are going to have a bigger advantage than they usually do because the lapse rates on these sort of events is pretty high; that last 3k feet of boundary layer not being an issue really helps them. even a place like roanoke will have a nice leg up.
2. large range of folks still in the game. now if you live in like, augusta, don't think this is your event even if the ull pulls your direction. but north carolina is squarely in it. now, what that is, fine question.
3. whatever snow falls is going to be f-tier ratios. to get it out of the way, ratios are going to matter, soil temps are going to matter, all that marginal stuff is going to matter. sorry.
 
packfan98 said:
Looks like we may trend too far past the sweet spot and western Virginia and the Mid Atlantic crew may be in the crosshairs.
Click to expand...
Almost every modeled 5 day ULL ends up more north and west than it previously looked. There are exceptions, but I would be very surprised if anyone outside the far western areas and maybe the NW piedmont saw appreciable snow. My guess would be mountains up through northern VA, eastern TN, and into WV. Really hard to see this trending better for SC or the Triangle and coastal plain. Maybe there's some cynicism in this because it just doesn't snow here anymore, but I've watched these things tick north and west and north and west from day 3-2-1 over and over and over again, and I don't see anything synoptically that makes me feel like this time will be any different.
 
Rain Cold said:
Almost every modeled 5 day ULL ends up more north and west than it previously looked. There are exceptions, but I would be very surprised if anyone outside the far western areas and maybe the NW piedmont saw appreciable snow. My guess would be mountains up through northern VA, eastern TN, and into WV. Really hard to see this trending better for SC or the Triangle and coastal plain. Maybe there's some cynicism in this because it just doesn't snow here anymore, but I've watched these things tick north and west and north and west from day 3-2-1 over and over and over again, and I don't see anything synoptically that makes me feel like this time will be any different.
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18z euro already showing this, 12z ukie may have been a warning shot, we needed south trends to continue to allow for wiggle room. Not saying it's over for us but I'd feel better if this slight shift reverses tonight with 0z. But plenty of time I guess
 
ILMRoss said:
some thoughts;
1. the mountains are going to have a bigger advantage than they usually do because the lapse rates on these sort of events is pretty high; that last 3k feet of boundary layer not being an issue really helps them. even a place like roanoke will have a nice leg up.
2. large range of folks still in the game. now if you live in like, augusta, don't think this is your event even if the ull pulls your direction. but north carolina is squarely in it. now, what that is, fine question.
3. whatever snow falls is going to be f-tier ratios. to get it out of the way, ratios are going to matter, soil temps are going to matter, all that marginal stuff is going to matter. sorry.
Click to expand...
Honestly while soil temps matter some, the bigger issue will how wet the ground is. If your lucky enough to get the rates, it will be heavy enough to get some impressive accumulations in a short time… see April 2019 in the small band here in the eastern part of CLT metro that got a quick 2-3” in a very short time. However with it looking like a wide area sees at least a couple inches of rainfall before whatever snow falls… it’s harder to get those lower ratio snows to pile up on a wet ground
 
It’s gonna be rain here in Union. I’m not mad though even with as much rain as we’ve had. Last year was dry
 
I'm forever optimistic. Regardless of the quite frankly horrid winter the majority of us have seen, still 41 days left before spring. And again let's not forget 93 and 96
 
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