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Wintry 2/11-2/12 ULL Magic or More Cold Rain

I also think we’re going to see more wobbles. We’re still in the longest range of short range models. They will wobble west and wobble east. There is time for others to get into the game but you gotta just expect with no cold air source available many across the board aren’t going to be in the game here. Don’t get hopes up too much
 
6z, 12z on TT hasn't run yet for some odd reason
Even with the 6z it was painful watching that deform form and not be snow in GA until it exits. Might be rate driven and not detected because aloft it seemed cold enough.
My bad, yeah that was 06z. More reason for me to hate the ICON as its output comes out weird across the various vendors (partial release and slow on some sites)
 
My bad, yeah that was 06z. More reason for me to hate the ICON as its output comes out weird across the various vendors (partial release and slow on some sites)
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Now the 12z
 
12z GFS

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I hope I see a foot imby but history just doesn't err on big snows S and E of 85 in the Charlotte area. Period. Hasn't swung our way an 10+yrs. I've seen Ballantyne all sleet and Davidson 6"+. I'm not even cautiously optimistic atp.
 
At this point the gfs has placed itself back on an island with such big totals over such a large area.
Agreed…at this point I think it’s very possible that we see an area of accumulating snow outside the mountains, but I can’t imagine it being anywhere near the extent of what the GFS is showing right now. I would honestly expect an area maybe 60-80 miles wide where there is an actual changeover and rates heavy enough to see accumulation. I doubt we get a good hold on that exact location until 24 hours out
 
If you're in the Midlands of SC you want this thing to be modeled even further South.

Point is, the odds are against us. Do not let the GFS trick you into excitement.
 
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