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Good or bad?
I’m right at 1000’ on a good day
But cherry is 1,709’ and it’s right in front of me.
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iGRXY
Member
Definitely stronger, Will need to see the track here.
Stronger early on could mean a quicker turn NE, becomes a mountain only event (well and north of here) but it's early so we shall see
ForsythSnow
Moderator
My real question is how this translates to us further west in GA. I know it's been borderline but each shift makes the system just that bit more delayed and let's the colder air really sink in especially with the deform band and rates. Timing might help if it stays south enough but I'm unsure as each change seems to have a different result here.
iGRXY
Member
Depends on the track, stronger is better in terms of getting moisture going but it can cut faster when it's more amp. It just depends on the track. If we keep the track that we have been seeing, then great.
SnowNiner
Member
I'm wondering if this thing doesn't end up right over clt by go time. Trends have seemed to make it stronger, close off earlier. I always question storms to my south unless there's something to keep them there.
iGRXY
Member
Nam is way slower. If you're east of 77, you don't want to see this trend any further west. Those of us West of 77 outside of the mountains are still sitting okay
iGRXY
Member
I still think the track does not change even though it is slower and deeper (which is good to an extent)
It's the LR NAM which sucks, about all you can take from it is it has come around to the ULL system stronger as well.... for many this is now track dependent. I'll reserve any hope or disappointment for the Euro twins
Early looks on icon suggest stronger ridge behind the ULL
packfan98
Moderator
12z nam looked to pop a low in the gulf. Definitely a further south track. At the end, the trough was still positive so that would help those east of the mountains if it goes negative and bombs out further east than some of the other models.
iGRXY
Member
Yeah, this isn't what you want to see if you're in the Eastern Carolinas. This is good for areas back my way (As long as the track remains). One thing that is comforting is that whether things have been strong or weaker with the S/W the track has remained almost step for step on a lot of models.
It could be one of those things where it rains everywhere (outside the high country) or could see lollipop jackpot spots around (under snd north) of the ULL. The scary part is, might be kind of few legit chances this year.
What would prevent the ULL from cutting NE which most of the models are showing? It's crazy how it goes from LA to over MBY. I would think if would swing through with more of a ENE direction.
South and still positive tilt are about the only positives from that run of the NAM, for those of us further east. I just have doubts have far south/east it can get if it really ramps up.12z nam looked to pop a low in the gulf. Definitely a further south track. At the end, the trough was still positive so that would help those east of the mountains if it goes negative and bombs out further east than some of the other models.
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Interesting that the weatherbell maps show sleet here on Sunday but the pivotal soundings show snow on the GFS.
Also, the max snow depth I saw anywhere was 5".
Also, the max snow depth I saw anywhere was 5".
iGRXY
Member
The orientation of the trough. Right now although the ULL is closed off, the trough is positively tilted and doesn't slow down and start neutral tilting until it's over the gulf coast around Alabama and Florida before heading ENE and NE. If that continues, then the stronger S/W and it closing off is actually good.
ATLwxfan
Member
The low has to deepen and slow down. For as often as we miss it would be nice to have a favorable trend for once.
Truthfully though, this ain’t a good set up for us.
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Last edited:
I came on to post how it feels spring is already here and see this thread. RAH doesn't seem too worried about winter weather here.
The exact track of the coastal low and also if and how strongly the ridge is able to build southward into the area Sat and Sun will have the greatest impacts on the weather across central NC over the weekend. Should the ridge and CAA be stronger over the Piedmont, there could be a period of wintry precip over the northern Piedmont late Sat night/early Sun. Otherwise, precip should be predominantly rain, with another half an inch to an inch expected.
The exact track of the coastal low and also if and how strongly the ridge is able to build southward into the area Sat and Sun will have the greatest impacts on the weather across central NC over the weekend. Should the ridge and CAA be stronger over the Piedmont, there could be a period of wintry precip over the northern Piedmont late Sat night/early Sun. Otherwise, precip should be predominantly rain, with another half an inch to an inch expected.
WPC 500mb forecast from this morning essentially splits the difference between the GEFS and EPS (1st image)
Best course of action is to hug the GFS and hope its 06z run comes to fruition where the interaction between the northern stream shortwave over the Great Lakes and the separated wave over the Lower Miss Valley is maintained longer (it looks like stronger ridging behind this wave complex helps to maintain this interaction longer). The longer this interaction is maintained, the farther southeast our separated wave tracks across the SE States....and doesn't open the door as much downstream for the wave to climb north as it rounds the bend.
Best course of action is to hug the GFS and hope its 06z run comes to fruition where the interaction between the northern stream shortwave over the Great Lakes and the separated wave over the Lower Miss Valley is maintained longer (it looks like stronger ridging behind this wave complex helps to maintain this interaction longer). The longer this interaction is maintained, the farther southeast our separated wave tracks across the SE States....and doesn't open the door as much downstream for the wave to climb north as it rounds the bend.
What is the old adage ... "Upper Level Low ... weather man's woe." Somebody may score, but probably one of those situations where it is rate driven. Unfortunately likely to be pain for most of us!
packfan98
Moderator
12z RGEM doesn't look good east of the mountains with this to me as compared to the NAM. I would think this would have a slightly inland track.
Icon….
12z RGEM doesn't look good east of the mountains with this to me as compared to the NAM. I would think this would have a slightly inland track.
It continues to jog South, however, which I would think would be good for folks in the East.
Not good 
iGRXY
Member
For us east of the mountains you want to see this thing go Neutral tilt around Alabama and Florida before going negative and cutting up the coast.
SnowNiner
Member
WPC 500mb forecast from this morning essentially splits the difference between the GEFS and EPS (1st image)
Best course of action is to hug the GFS and hope its 06z run comes to fruition where the interaction between the northern stream shortwave over the Great Lakes and the separated wave over the Lower Miss Valley is maintained longer (it looks like stronger ridging behind this wave complex helps to maintain this interaction longer). The longer this interaction is maintained, the farther southeast our separated wave tracks across the SE States....and doesn't open the door as much downstream for the wave to climb north as it rounds the bend.
Lol, WPC looks to bring the ULL right about into Fort Mill. They're essentially forecasting cold rain with that set up for the Piedmont I think. Really like where the mountains sit though.
iGRXY
Member
ICON cuts right through Georgia and SC. That's not what you want
12z NAM showing colder/dryer dew points.
6z NAM (hour 84)
12z NAM(hour 78)
Then dew points drop into the low 20s at RDU by hour 84.
6z NAM (hour 84)
12z NAM(hour 78)
Then dew points drop into the low 20s at RDU by hour 84.
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The NAM was about to flip the 85 corridor in Charlotte to sleet at 84.
iGRXY
Member
Along and west of 77 looks to have the best chance if anybody outside of the mountains in NC/SC are going to get something
packfan98
Moderator
Watching a storm get captured and tugged left is a thing of beauty. That's still super close to being a bigger deal for more of us east of the mountains.12z ICON
ForsythSnow
Moderator
6z, 12z on TT hasn't run yet for some odd reason12z ICON
Even with the 6z it was painful watching that deform form and not be snow in GA until it exits. Might be rate driven and not detected because aloft it seemed cold enough.
The lack of low level cold is going to hurt a lot peoples feelings. This is probably going to have to see some serious dynamic cooling and we need some low level cold help as well.
Shaggy
Member
Can't tell you the number of times I have seen this scenario fail. Sitting around waiting for a changeover that never occurs because the cold air never materializes.