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Wintry 2/11-2/12 ULL Magic or More Cold Rain

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Stronger so far
 
weatherfide said:
Almost identical to the UKMET at hour 60.
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I wonder if we might see a different surface reflection from the Euro if it stays similar. I looked at the UK again and with the track and set up, I was honestly suprised that it didn’t have more snowfall outside of the mountains
 
If someone else posted this, please forgive ... here is FFC's take right now:

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 337 AM EST Wed Feb 8 2023

What looked to be a warm, clear, comfortable weekend as of yesterday
morning`s forecast package, has now rapidly diverged into a
cool/cold, wet and cloudy weather setup. This change comes as the
shortwave impulse that will affect the weather pattern in Georgia
this weekend recently coming onshore in the Pacific Northwest
over the last 6-18 hours with better upper air sampling.

Prior to Saturday the forecast remains on track with a cold front
slowing down across NW Georgia Friday morning, if not outright
stalling. Southwesterly flow will manifest as a warm, moist conveyer
belt ahead of the frontal boundary which with PWATs increasing to
1.5+ inches will provide widespread, continuous rain showers through
Friday. As the front picks up steam and pushed southeastward late
Friday, added convergence along the frontal boundary combined with
peak moisture flux should elevated rain totals in the southern and
eastern portions of the forecast area where average QPF totals are
now exceeding 2.5 inches in some isolated locations.

The biggest change, however, is with the progression and evolution
of a secondary shortwave, which was supposed to lift towards the
northeast and progress the broader wavetrain, but now looks to cut
off and swing through the Southeastern Gulf states through the
weekend. Despite the rapid changes to the systems evolution, the
consistency among the models on the upper-level and surface system
placements is uncanny, which did add confidence in the rapid change
to our forecast package. As the upper-level cutoff low pushes
eastward, a surface low is forecast to form along the baroclinic
boundary along the eastern coastline and sit off the Georgia
coastline by Saturday afternoon evening. With colder air
infiltrating the forecast area on the backside of the low
temperatures should begin to drop through the weekend, setting up
for potential wintry weather in the southern Appalachians on Saturday
night through Sunday morning. GFS has been aggressive with heavy
dendritic growth falling as melting snow in these areas but other
models have been a tiny bit more progressive and dry so exact
details will have to be worked out as the system approaches, but
signals for a couple inches of snow are increasing for the higher
elevations above 2000ft and are worth monitoring going forward.
Additionally, with temperatures just above freezing models might
tell two different stories between how much snow could FALL, versus
how much snow could STICK, therefore model interpretation will be
key. (That`s why us meteorologists make the moderate bucks!)

After Sunday, cooler drier air starts to infiltrate the region, but
it won`t be long until the cycle begins to repeat once again, which
remains the typical, active La Nina norm for the Southeastern CONUS.

Thiem
 
BIG FROSTY said:
GSP and especially RNK are pathetic at times they catch up just before game time and RNK a lot of times well after the event is underway. I don’t get RNK I’ve been under 3 WWA this winter and seen nothing wintry so far.


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I did get .1 glaze from one of those but the valley floor didn't get anything. And nothing other than that.
 
SD said:
850 low on the euro near gsp/clt big W for north GA and the mountains
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I hug, this is the solution I've wanted to see us trend towards and I really am hoping it hones in on a solution close to this toward verification. It really takes off and benefits from the dynamic cooling as you can see through the column once that deform band sets up, which given history and other model indicators, I think someone's going to get a deform band with this setup and that's where the big money will be once it pivots.
 
Perfect low track for the western upstate on the Euro. -4 850's mean snow is reaching the ground with decent rates. (for some reason the euro doesn't have the best rates... not buying that with the dynamics in place).

Screen Shot 2023-02-08 at 1.23.10 PM.pngScreen Shot 2023-02-08 at 1.25.16 PM.png
 
rburrel2 said:
Perfect low track for the western upstate on the Euro. -4 850's mean snow is reaching the ground with decent rates. (for some reason the euro doesn't have the best rates... not buying that with the dynamics in place).

View attachment 132531View attachment 132532
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Yeah, the euro didn't really have that great of amounts of precip falling. On average less than 0.5" of liquid fell when it was snowing. Not sure I buy that myself, as precip doesn't seem to be a question anymore at this point. Just track and BL temps
 
rburrel2 said:
I don't wanna poop on eastern sections but the GFS sending the 5h low almost due easterly for a while as it wraps up/deepens seems suspect to me. Ukmet/CMC/Euro/ICON all rotate it hard to the NE once it starts to wrap up around the gulf coast.
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Agreed… however to me the key is how long it takes for the the energy to separate itself from the northern stream. The longer it takes to separate, the longer it stays more positively titled, and the later it turns towards the NE. The GFS has actually been fairly consistent in keeping it longer to separate, thus it’s why you see a snow footprint further east. I’m not in anyway saying it’s right, but the energy taking longer to separate seems to be trend of the other models now for about the last 3 or 4 cycles.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Really not far from a CAD setup anymore. Continue to Deepen the trough in the NE and lower it, you feed in cooler/drier air prior, really close to a IP setup and even ZR on the front end View attachment 132537View attachment 132536View attachment 132535View attachment 132538
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Yep, and it's one reason i'm not so worried about the boundary layer. The storms where we struggle to get snow to reach the ground are when we're looking at above freezing all the way up to 925mb and relatively calm winds at those levels. We're going to be ripping winds out of the NE as depicted on the euro with solidly below freezing readings down to at least 950mb. We should easily change over to snow on the euro once the 850mb temps crash. I think it's holding on to warm surface temps a little too long.

Edit: Of course i'm actually worried about boundary layer temps, lol. Just saying that ripping NE feed is a positive thing that should really help us.
 
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