Wintry 2/11-2/12 ULL Magic or More Cold Rain

[iGRXY]

We’ve really improved our BL issues somewhat. Models are responding to the ULL taking control and where we had temps in the upper 30’s you’re seeing runs with surface temps around 33-34 with freezing surface temps just south of I40. We also have a small CAD setup with a nice little 1028-1030 HP sliding in ahead and during the initial storm to help cool the climb even more. That’s something you want to continue.

 

[Tarheel1]

 

[SNOWMANN]

Today is scramble day for the NWS offices. They’re running out of models to point to that show what their above words say.

Gsp always plays conservative the aft person always does a better job on the discussion than night crew imo.

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

The two things that must happen for the Atlanta metro to have a shot occur often. The UUL placement corrects NW of its progged 3-day track and verifies deeper at go time. Yes, a long shot because even then temps are marginal, but I will watch intently anyway.

 

[FallsLake]

The RDPS and to somewhat the other models are showing colder/dryer air pushing in from the north earlier.

6z GDPS dew points at hour 84:

 

[rburrel2]

06z Rgem a lot further west with the 5/h low at 84hrs when compared to the 06z GFS. Would probably favor the mountains and not be good for the coastal plains.

 

[Nomanslandva]

NWS RKE not biting yet.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 220 AM EST Wednesday...

Drier and warmer for early next week...

On Sunday the closed low moving across the Deep South will skirt
our area to the south and move offshore Monday. This system
presents the best chance for precipitation over the next 7 days,
although most of the rain will mainly be over NC and eastern
VA.

 

[NCSNOW]

IF only the 6z GFS could get one right inside a 100 hours. I'd write a check for this to be the time. It can't trend any better for Triad. Gotta hold serve for 4 more days , what could possibly go wrong LOL!!!

Thats Old school Tree Snapper. Reminds me of Feb 28,2004 ULL that dumped 17.5 IMBY

 

[rburrel2]

06z Icon similar in location to the rgem with the 5/h low and as a result has the deformation zone over the mountains/upstate Sunday morning.

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

6Z euro already looks better at hour 72 versus 0Z run. More stacked and going neutral over LA.

 

[rburrel2]

at 72hrs, the 06z euro looks like the rgem with the cutoff forming over the ark/la/tex region. While the GFS is well east of that point.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Not sure if I like that

 

[rburrel2]

Not sure if I like that View attachment 132466

Good for western upstate and the mountains, bad for the peidmont and coastal plain. Also like the trend in new england for CAD areas.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Euro and icon is pretty similar

 

[rburrel2]

It seems like northern alabama and Northwest Georgia will be out of the game even if they get an ideal low track because the boundary layer is just too warm. SC/NC is relying on stout 925mb feed from northeasterly winds to make things happen.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

I’d say this 06z euro looks more like the CMC, same placement

 

[Cary_Snow95]

We are only realistically about 72 hours away from serious implications downstream. If it’s closed by then makes a big difference. That being said I wouldn’t stress too much if it’s too west or east rn. It’s gonna wobble a ton the next two days

 

[rburrel2]

As of this morning's models runs.

If i'm in Raleigh i'm worried... If i'm in Charlotte i'm cautiously optimistic... If I'm in Hickory to Greensboro I'm licking my chops.

 

[Webberweather53]

Despite all the pretty 10:1 SLR maps from the GFS suite, I'm still having a hard time seeing how this works out in a big way for areas outside the mountains. I still can see some snow for sure, but I think it's going to be a very sloppy, low-end event in the best case scenario here.

I can't find any really good examples where an upper low totally cut off from the mean flow like this & crushed the piedmont + coastal plain. Cut off upper lows are fine but you usually still need at least a little injection of cold air continuing to funnel into the ULL.

This is a composite of 15 upper low cases I could find since the 1950s that actually worked out for folks east of the mountains. Notice the ridge anomaly to the west of the cut-off over the Upper Midwest & southern Canada helping to keep some injection cold air going into the base of this cut-off upper low.




Notice in our setup however, the ridge completely comes over the top and basically shuts off the tap of cold air from the north & you're having to rely entirely on precipitation rates to cool the column to freezing. If you're hoping for a big snow outside the mountains, this pattern isn't a good one for setups like these.

 

[strongwxnc]

As of this morning's models runs.

If i'm in Raleigh i'm worried... If i'm in Charlotte i'm cautiously optimistic... If I'm in Hickory to Greensboro I'm licking my chops.

And super close from your area north into the southern foothills of NC for sure.


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