Wintry 2/11-2/12 ULL Magic or More Cold Rain

[packfan98]

EPS looks improved to me vs 0z (I don't have access to 6z). Definitely colder and more solutions off the coast.

 

[deltadog03]

Well, EURO was a much better step in the right direction this run. Low level cold looks a bit better. I would like to see the surface high more built/based eastward but a good trend so far.

 

[iGRXY]

EPS actually trended stronger but further south a touch with the track

 

[rburrel2]

Yep, much more amped

more ridging out ahead of it and more confluence over new england... great trends.

 

[packfan98]

EPS actually trended stronger but further south a touch with the track

850 low was further south too. Needs another 75 mile adjustment to help many of us out east of the mountains.

 

[iGRXY]

EPS actually trended stronger but further south a touch with the track

Actually a good track for areas along and north of 85.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

This is gonna be the best EPS run yet

 

[packfan98]

This is gonna be the best EPS run yet

Good. It looked like most key features improved from 0z.

 

[HKY1994]

compared to 0z eps a noticable shift south in snow mean. A nod to GFS imo, not a full cave but a great run!

 

[Chazwin]

Hold a CAD feed longer and what was once waiting on BL temps in the upper 30's and low 40's to cool turns into waiting on Mid 30's to cool with subfreezing air only about 1000 feet above you, maybe less.

That was one of the biggest things the March 2009 storm had going for it. Temperatures all day here basically in the 35-37 degree range… as soon as 850s crashed, the changeover was very quick

 

[iGRXY]

This is gonna be the best EPS run yet

Yep

 

[KyloG]

Oh that's how west trends look. Nail in the coffin for the folks east of 85.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Yep

Boom

 

[SD]

850 low was further south too. Needs another 75 mile adjustment to help many of us out east of the mountains.

Yep it's better but still a lot of E winds at 850. Eps should put more in the game outside of the mountains than the op. Even if I lived in GSP/CLT/GSO I'd be wanting a more S/E track to feel confident in anything more than a change over at the end

 

[BullCityWx]

I dont think moisture will be the issue

 

[Chazwin]

Oh that's how west trends look. Nail in the coffin for the folks east of 85.

View attachment 132541

I could be wrong, but I’m not really sure that the location of the surface low is the key here. If you look at that total EPS run, it actually improved for areas east of 85. The key the track of the upper low. Now seeing the surface low closer to the coast could have a positive impact in helping to reinforce any CAD that sets up helping to keep winds out of the NE.

 

[BullCityWx]

Means went up a decent amount of west of 77 and slightly east of 77:

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

Yep it's better but still a lot of E winds at 850. Eps should put more in the game outside of the mountains than the op. Even if I lived in GSP/CLT/GSO I'd be wanting a more S/E track to feel confident in anything more than a change over at the end

Those easterly 850Mb winds could bring heartbreak for some areas. I recall distinctly here in N. central Ga. for the 03/09 storm that while I was getting absolutely crushed with pancakes, areas just to my north were getting hosed due to a warm nose on the top side of the 850 low. Bassackwards from what one would expect, but the NAM sniffed that nose out as it so often does.

 

[Ron Burgundy]

I like this look from the EPS. In a perfect world, this would be a money look.

Wow - low traversing the Big Bend ?

 

[mydoortotheworld]

Yep

ATL and points north in the game