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Tbh I have never seen the NAM pull out a coup in its long range. I don’t believe the American models have too much grasp on reality ever. And it’s a shame. To the point of others, models in general haven’t done that great of a job either so I’d like to see this through several more cycles of NAM, NAM 3km, RGEM, and other short range guidance to get some more confidence on trends and such. Regardless of what’s being shown now we just need more cold air. Sure we can manufacture our own with good rates and such but in a set up so damn marginal like this one I just don’t think I can trust anything throwing out large snow accumulations for anyone outside of the mountains .. and even there looks like a pasty white water mess. Give me some colder 850 trends over the next couple days or I’m not budging .. cold rain.
Agreed… and like I said before while I don’t put much stock into precip output from the NAM at this range, I do feel that it’s beneficial in tracking features.
rburrel2
Member
Check out this sounding at 7am for Greensboro, GA. which is Southeast of Atlanta... WAY below freezing all the way through the column with moderate snow falling. yummy
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Deleted member 609
Guest
Found the guy who got nammed
NAM has had its long range coups. It used to have benefit because it was the only non-hydrostatic model to go to 84hrs. Nowadays GFS is non-hydrostatic.. only thing NAM has over GFS at this point is that NAM runs on a WRF core which better than the UFS-FV3 core that the new GFS runs on..
Either way, this is the last year that we will have NAM, so enjoy it.. after this year it'll just be GFS and RRFS in terms of american models. No more NAM3, no more NAM12, No more SREF, no more HRRR...
Either way, this is the last year that we will have NAM, so enjoy it.. after this year it'll just be GFS and RRFS in terms of american models. No more NAM3, no more NAM12, No more SREF, no more HRRR...
Ron Burgundy
Member
No different than the ones hating on it. Every man for himself with a ULL.
The NAM is absolutely valuable from 54+ because it shows you with amazing accuracy exactly what will not happen. Weather forecasting is pretty tough, so anytime you can rule stuff out, that's good!
Luckily even without NAM, MMFS will still be here to provide long range HIRES outputs. Here's the MMFS Hires so far, looks like it's cookin up something good.
NCSNOW
Member
5 contour almost in the GOM
Tonight's NAM 500mb image over the Carolinas and Georgia at hr84 is the 'spittin image' of the 24hr NAM from the March 1, 2009 run...
1st Image: Tonight's NAM
2nd Image: NAM from 2009
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Deleted member 609
Guest
No shame here. I'm all in on gfs
This ain't what anyone in the Carolinas is looking for
iGRXY
Member
ULL are extremely difficult to forecast and trying to know where the deform band will set up is almost impossible. Euro was way west, GFS way south east, the NAM is honestly a good blend of both right now which is hilarious.
NCSNOW
Member
5 contour Mobile, south of nam slightly
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Deleted member 609
Guest
I use the nam as the final nail in coffin when I'm 24 hours out and it shows rain
NCSNOW
Member
BNA HSV BMX jackpot on the rgem. Let's amp and separate a little more to see if we can get it to mem
ICON looks better in a different way. Interesting
iGRXY
Member
While the placement is exactly the same regarding the ULL, the big difference is the 09 system had a lot more northern stream interaction. Hopefully, it works out in the end, but it'll be nerve-wracking watching it pour rain while tracking the cold-core low coming in.Tonight's NAM 500mb image over the Carolinas and Georgia at hr84 is the 'spittin image' of the 24hr NAM from the March 1, 2009 run...
1st Image: Tonight's NAM
2nd Image: NAM from 2009
ForsythSnow
Moderator
The fact it dropped snow on me is better than all other runs so I take this as a win trend so far.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Tonight's NAM 500mb image over the Carolinas and Georgia at hr84 is the 'spittin image' of the 24hr NAM from the March 1, 2009 run...
1st Image: Tonight's NAM
2nd Image: NAM from 2009
The key piece that's missing from this setup that we had in Mar 2009 is that healthy northern stream shortwave over southern Ontario & Quebec. The northern stream wave gives Mar 2009's upper low a legit source of (nearby) cold air to tap into, we unfortunately won't have that luxury :/
Can we drop that broad trough around the GLs farther south/interact with the ULL more please ? Let’s spice things up and make things interesting last minute 
Hear ya, but that's why I mentioned the comparison being just over the Carolinas and Georgia. But it's still the same type of setup where it's a rainstorm that flips to snow on the NW side of a trailing closed contour upper low that is moving fairly slowly
Here comes the bowling ball on the HIRES.
Stormlover
Member
RGEM
LovingGulfLows
Member
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RGEM
Pretty funny how we’ve gone from it mainly being focused on the Carolinas to now having solutions with snow as far west as the MS/AL state line ?. Models always struggle with amplifying bowling balls.
What I remember most about that 09 storm is I wound up right under its pivot point as it began its move to the NE. This one, unlike some of our board-wide WAA snows, is truly every man for himself lol.
Another thing we have going for us down here is the timing looks good rather than the middle of the day in early March.
Drizzle Snizzle
Member
I’d much rather get a snow in Mid Jan than Mid Feb, but it’s certainly better than early March.
GFS already digging more at hour 18 lol. Welp
iGRXY
Member
Need the trend with the northern stream to continue another 3-4 runs
Stormlover
Member
iGRXY
Member
Ugh oh. Granted this also could be the GFS correcting since it was the furthest southeast solution
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
If the upper low on this model frame was actually ~600 nautical miles east over Atlanta, GA instead of Dallas, TX, this weekend would be a classic snowy upper low setup for the Carolinas. But alas, we can't have nice things.
The low being further east here would have given us a much better deep-layer continental polar cold air feed to work with ahead of the mid-level ridge over the Upper Midwest & Manitoba.
Everything about this set up is right, except the upper low is in the wrong place at the wrong time to take the most advantage of this cold air feed. That one change to the circulation pattern is all it would take to go from a cold rain to heavy, wet, crippling snow outside the mountains. Unfortunately, that scenario seems pretty unlikely atm given we're about 2-3 days out from the valid time on the attached model image.
The low being further east here would have given us a much better deep-layer continental polar cold air feed to work with ahead of the mid-level ridge over the Upper Midwest & Manitoba.
Everything about this set up is right, except the upper low is in the wrong place at the wrong time to take the most advantage of this cold air feed. That one change to the circulation pattern is all it would take to go from a cold rain to heavy, wet, crippling snow outside the mountains. Unfortunately, that scenario seems pretty unlikely atm given we're about 2-3 days out from the valid time on the attached model image.
Haha so much of central AL almost got NAMed as well.
Nomanslandva
Member
Is that to drown the heartbreak?
iGRXY
Member
Definitely expect the GFS to come NW. a lot more stream separation at 45