534 right over Macon. My benchmark.View attachment 132638
Atlanta getting demolished lmaooo
534 right over Macon. My benchmark.View attachment 132638
Atlanta getting demolished lmaooo
Now that’s very much a March 2009 type lookView attachment 132638
Atlanta getting demolished lmaooo
I’ve always believed that the NAM is reliable at this range when it comes to features at H5Is the NAM reliable at this range ?
I dare you to ask @Rain Cold that question. He's likely to give you a "No" preceded with an expletive. For me, none of the models are awesome anymore. Just throw them all together and take bits and pieces from each. I've seen the NAM have good value at rangeIs the NAM reliable at this range ?
As reliable as any other model. It’s had its moments.Is the NAM reliable at this range ?
The EPS jump today was encouraging. That I think certainly puts the foothills in play. Imo, the piedmonts got a way to go. Who knows, maybe gfs scores a coup here.
Sampling improves a lot once on land, on our land.Don't know that I've ever heard a definitive answer on this, but reading thru the tea leaves, my take on this is that there are a number of sources for observational data such as satellite data, obs from aircraft and ships traveling around the world, and obs from land based soundings (and maybe others). So waiting for a feature in the atmosphere to appear over land won't necessarily result in big changes since land based soundings aren't the only way we inject obs into the models. In this case, the wave that dives into the SE is already over ID/MT/WY this evening. Of course, the troughs and ridges upstream and downstream of that wave that play into the eventual track are being sampled as well. As much as anything, I think it just comes down to the notion that the model runs are constantly making adjustments, with bigger adjustments happening of course as you go farther out in time.
While I do agree to some extent with the NAM being bad, the shifts from the other globals right now are just as bad in this instance so they're all about fair game unless one stabilizes first and the rest fall in line. Remember this was a NC/VA storm a day ago and the globals all thought that?NAM is bad at that range, worst model out there. Hasn’t had a update in years