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Good or bad?
strongwxnc
Member
I’m right at 1000’ on a good day
But cherry is 1,709’ and it’s right in front of me.
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iGRXY
Member
Definitely stronger, Will need to see the track here.
Stronger early on could mean a quicker turn NE, becomes a mountain only event (well and north of here) but it's early so we shall see
ForsythSnow
Moderator
My real question is how this translates to us further west in GA. I know it's been borderline but each shift makes the system just that bit more delayed and let's the colder air really sink in especially with the deform band and rates. Timing might help if it stays south enough but I'm unsure as each change seems to have a different result here.
iGRXY
Member
Depends on the track, stronger is better in terms of getting moisture going but it can cut faster when it's more amp. It just depends on the track. If we keep the track that we have been seeing, then great.
SnowNiner
Member
I'm wondering if this thing doesn't end up right over clt by go time. Trends have seemed to make it stronger, close off earlier. I always question storms to my south unless there's something to keep them there.
iGRXY
Member
Nam is way slower. If you're east of 77, you don't want to see this trend any further west. Those of us West of 77 outside of the mountains are still sitting okay
iGRXY
Member
I still think the track does not change even though it is slower and deeper (which is good to an extent)
It's the LR NAM which sucks, about all you can take from it is it has come around to the ULL system stronger as well.... for many this is now track dependent. I'll reserve any hope or disappointment for the Euro twins
Early looks on icon suggest stronger ridge behind the ULL
packfan98
Moderator
12z nam looked to pop a low in the gulf. Definitely a further south track. At the end, the trough was still positive so that would help those east of the mountains if it goes negative and bombs out further east than some of the other models.
iGRXY
Member
Yeah, this isn't what you want to see if you're in the Eastern Carolinas. This is good for areas back my way (As long as the track remains). One thing that is comforting is that whether things have been strong or weaker with the S/W the track has remained almost step for step on a lot of models.
It could be one of those things where it rains everywhere (outside the high country) or could see lollipop jackpot spots around (under snd north) of the ULL. The scary part is, might be kind of few legit chances this year.
What would prevent the ULL from cutting NE which most of the models are showing? It's crazy how it goes from LA to over MBY. I would think if would swing through with more of a ENE direction.
South and still positive tilt are about the only positives from that run of the NAM, for those of us further east. I just have doubts have far south/east it can get if it really ramps up.12z nam looked to pop a low in the gulf. Definitely a further south track. At the end, the trough was still positive so that would help those east of the mountains if it goes negative and bombs out further east than some of the other models.
Interesting that the weatherbell maps show sleet here on Sunday but the pivotal soundings show snow on the GFS.
Also, the max snow depth I saw anywhere was 5".
Also, the max snow depth I saw anywhere was 5".
iGRXY
Member
The orientation of the trough. Right now although the ULL is closed off, the trough is positively tilted and doesn't slow down and start neutral tilting until it's over the gulf coast around Alabama and Florida before heading ENE and NE. If that continues, then the stronger S/W and it closing off is actually good.
ATLwxfan
Member
The low has to deepen and slow down. For as often as we miss it would be nice to have a favorable trend for once.
Truthfully though, this ain’t a good set up for us.
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