Wintry 2/11-2/12 ULL Magic or More Cold Rain

[Brick Tamland]

I came on to post how it feels spring is already here and see this thread. RAH doesn't seem too worried about winter weather here.

The exact track of the coastal low and also if and how strongly the ridge is able to build southward into the area Sat and Sun will have the greatest impacts on the weather across central NC over the weekend. Should the ridge and CAA be stronger over the Piedmont, there could be a period of wintry precip over the northern Piedmont late Sat night/early Sun. Otherwise, precip should be predominantly rain, with another half an inch to an inch expected.

 

[griteater]

WPC 500mb forecast from this morning essentially splits the difference between the GEFS and EPS (1st image)

Best course of action is to hug the GFS and hope its 06z run comes to fruition where the interaction between the northern stream shortwave over the Great Lakes and the separated wave over the Lower Miss Valley is maintained longer (it looks like stronger ridging behind this wave complex helps to maintain this interaction longer). The longer this interaction is maintained, the farther southeast our separated wave tracks across the SE States....and doesn't open the door as much downstream for the wave to climb north as it rounds the bend.

 

[k0skinne]

What is the old adage ... "Upper Level Low ... weather man's woe." Somebody may score, but probably one of those situations where it is rate driven. Unfortunately likely to be pain for most of us!

 

[packfan98]

12z RGEM doesn't look good east of the mountains with this to me as compared to the NAM. I would think this would have a slightly inland track.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Icon….

 

[mrdaddyman]

12z RGEM doesn't look good east of the mountains with this to me as compared to the NAM. I would think this would have a slightly inland track.

It continues to jog South, however, which I would think would be good for folks in the East.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Not good

 

[iGRXY]

For us east of the mountains you want to see this thing go Neutral tilt around Alabama and Florida before going negative and cutting up the coast.

 

[SnowNiner]

WPC 500mb forecast from this morning essentially splits the difference between the GEFS and EPS (1st image)

Best course of action is to hug the GFS and hope its 06z run comes to fruition where the interaction between the northern stream shortwave over the Great Lakes and the separated wave over the Lower Miss Valley is maintained longer (it looks like stronger ridging behind this wave complex helps to maintain this interaction longer). The longer this interaction is maintained, the farther southeast our separated wave tracks across the SE States....and doesn't open the door as much downstream for the wave to climb north as it rounds the bend.

Lol, WPC looks to bring the ULL right about into Fort Mill. They're essentially forecasting cold rain with that set up for the Piedmont I think. Really like where the mountains sit though.

 

[iGRXY]

Not good View attachment 132496

ICON cuts right through Georgia and SC. That's not what you want

 

[KyloG]

Compare the 18z icon with 12z run. The 18z had the snow further east. Can see why...

 

[FallsLake]

12z NAM showing colder/dryer dew points.

6z NAM (hour 84)


12z NAM(hour 78)


Then dew points drop into the low 20s at RDU by hour 84.

 

[BullCityWx]

The NAM was about to flip the 85 corridor in Charlotte to sleet at 84.

 

[KyloG]

ICON snowfall...Webber going to probably be correct, outside of the western areas it's going to be tough. But, atleast someone looks to get snow.

 

[iGRXY]

ICON snowfall...Webber going to probably be correct, outside of the western areas it's going to be tough. But, atleast someone looks to get snow.

View attachment 132498

Along and west of 77 looks to have the best chance if anybody outside of the mountains in NC/SC are going to get something

 

[griteater]

12z ICON 06z ICON

 

[packfan98]

12z ICON

Watching a storm get captured and tugged left is a thing of beauty. That's still super close to being a bigger deal for more of us east of the mountains.

 

[ForsythSnow]

12z ICON

6z, 12z on TT hasn't run yet for some odd reason
Even with the 6z it was painful watching that deform form and not be snow in GA until it exits. Might be rate driven and not detected because aloft it seemed cold enough.

 

[deltadog03]

The lack of low level cold is going to hurt a lot peoples feelings. This is probably going to have to see some serious dynamic cooling and we need some low level cold help as well.

 

[Shaggy]

The lack of low level cold is going to hurt a lot peoples feelings. This is probably going to have to see some serious dynamic cooling and we need some low level cold help as well.

Can't tell you the number of times I have seen this scenario fail. Sitting around waiting for a changeover that never occurs because the cold air never materializes.