• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry 2/11-2/12 ULL Magic or More Cold Rain

This is really sliding under the radar, but the GFS is getting extremely close to a front end ice/sleet setup, due to southward adjustments to our NE trough, 925s have trended significantly cooler along wedge areas, the current look now, and another day of this trend is the difference between 32-34 with IP/spotty ZR/RN, and if we continue to sink the NE trough, 30-32 and ZR/IP8EECE00A-9090-49D6-B79A-B4E79D35823F.png6DC9E594-382C-4B19-84A5-70C8B5FC1C8F.pngAC48EC54-E8A3-47CB-9545-EDF91F7EF7AA.pngF0598804-25E3-4CBA-B784-1C911356230E.gif
 
GEFS is following the trends of the day. Definitely more southern solutions. Now if can lead the way and get some more models on board. Overall, good trends today. I know we haven’t seen much east of the Triad in NC, but I think we’ll see some more digital snow for the Triangle over the next few runs.
 
mydoortotheworld said:
Considering Augusta’s the bullseye this far out one could consider that points NW will be sitting pretty with this look, if BL temps can cooperate, but if what GFS is saying is true and if I’m interpreting correctly what I’m seeing here so far, rate driven is (as stated before) obviously key since surface temps are not great to begin with?
Click to expand...
The key for the Atlanta-Athens area is for the core of the cold-core ULL to pass just south or over the area. With what cold air there is, other than the wedge feed which by itself isn't cold enough here, will have to come from top-down dynamic cooling.

18z had the LP stacked near the Florida panhandle before popping a surface center off the Ga. coast. Put that same feature over Macon and it's game on.
 
GFS Ens trend, last 3 runs

N2zYyMe.gif


o5XWpux.gif
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
This is really sliding under the radar, but the GFS is getting extremely close to a front end ice/sleet setup, due to southward adjustments to our NE trough, 925s have trended significantly cooler along wedge areas, the current look now, and another day of this trend is the difference between 32-34 with IP/spotty ZR/RN, and if we continue to sink the NE trough, 30-32 and ZR/IPView attachment 132589View attachment 132590View attachment 132591View attachment 132592
Click to expand...
The ensemble panels had many more icy type of solution in the piedmont to start out. I have a hard time thinking that if we started as ice sleet that we would go over to rain with the position of the low. Again we’re still far away from any done deal here. Shall be interesting
 
06A98683-8342-4F7A-9D22-5974D7ED1E26.png
18z RGEM starts shooting straight north this frame. I say a blend of GFS/GEFS vrs Euro/EPS/Nam/Icon/CMC would put the westerns Carolina/Mountains/Foothills in good shape.
 
I'm beginning to think this turns into a raging noreaster with high winds on the coast, the mountains get pasted, and somewhere between 85 and the foothills is a transition zone. Due to somewhat warm temps, much of what falls will melt.
TW
 
packfan98 said:
Where do you think this ends up?
Click to expand...
I think today's EPS run is a fair call for the 500mb track at this point (below). The GFS/GEFS probably isn't correct, but having the outlier be to the SE suggests that a solution on the far NW side of the envelope isn't likely correct either. I think it will be cold enough to yield some snow east of the mtns (NC Foothills / W Piedmont, SC Upstate), with some heavy rates in the max zones. Lose the strength of the upper low, and we lose the cooling potential thru the column and the heavier precip, so have to monitor that. Also, time of day is important for accumulations in this marginal temperature setup. Those are my thoughts. Thanks.

dRz9REk.gif
 
griteater said:
Yeah GFS is the outlier, but if I'm you, I'd want the outlier being south like that. One other thing is that both the EPS and CMCE bumped south at 12z
Click to expand...
Yeah this something that is kinda getting overlooked. The ensembles from other suites are moving towards the further SE GFS solution and have been been for the last few cycles. This should at the very least suggest that other OPs might correct closer to a GFS solution than the other way around. Another thing I’m noticing is just how close we are to seeing an all out sleet storm for a lot of the NC Piedmont and SC Upstate on the front of this. The stronger and further south SE Canada vortex is putting 925mb safely below freezing while putting the surface very close to 32.
 
It's been oddly frustrating in my backyard for this storm so far because I honestly feel like I'm right in the sweet spot/jackpot zone if you take a model consensus... but I've yet to actually have any single model run clobber me.

Hoping tonights NAM run gets the party started here tonight and finally shows a hit for Oconee/Pickens/Greenville counties.

Disclaimer: (In no way am I saying we will get jack potted, just think it's odd we haven't seen a fantasy jackpot so far).
 
Broken024 said:
That looks great. Hopefully the GFS is right. Has a lot going against it though.
Click to expand...

The GEFS clearly looks like a threat and has gotten better all day, which is strange. You would think it would have blinked by now. It's the only thing keeping me hanging on, really. But it's the furthest south of everybody else, and the coldest I think. If this thing pulls north I will never forget. GEFS will be on my list. ?
 
Strictly looking at the 18z NAM. Northeast Georgia and Upstate SC would definitely get an hour or two of sleet before switching over to snow. Looks like rain would change to sleet from west to east starting in Northeast Georgia around 3am or so. Couldn't rule out a prolonged sleet event either if we get a layer around 850mb that sticks around just above freezing.

(Even though the cold wedge is stronger to the east... the warm nose is too strong at first for eastern locations... I think you'd need warm nose temps barely above freezing in a tiny section of the sounding to get sleet... hence the west to east transition. imo)
 
Last edited:
Arcc said:
Dang, this one is gonna sting hard for us in MS, AL and most of GA.
Click to expand...
Maybe not, still have a lot of details to work out, and were pretty close if we can get heavy precip as is modelled by some. still have a very good trend on the rgem and at this range I would trust it as much or more than any of the other models. I have seen the models miss the winners and losers with these type storms on the day of the event.
 
Last edited:
Forysth/Hall county Georgia is already flipping to sleet/mangled refrozen flakes at 1am if the NAM is to be believed. This sounding is just west of Gainesville, Ga at 1am when better lift/dynamics are just about to move in.

Screen Shot 2023-02-08 at 6.25.26 PM.png
 
Last edited:
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top