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good thing we have the ensembles to walk people off the ledge.
I really don’t think this is going to be a matter of having a better chance north of I-40 or NW of I-85. To me this going to solely on what area gets under the best dynamic cooling and that will be where the accumulating snow sets up outside the mountains… there was an ULL in February 1999 that saw the CLT metro area get plastered with about 4 hours of heavy wet snow including thundersnow with temperatures right near freezing, while the I-40 corridor never cooled lower than 36-37 degrees and stayed mostly rain. This is why ULLs are so difficult to forecast
Oh man, I remember that!! I was playing hooky in my senior year and rode up to Hickory to the mall from Gastonia. We headed home sometime around one and just about Lincolnton we were hit by a wall of snow. It was raining in Hickory and raining in Rockingham that day because the cup series was down there for qualifying. Seemed like a 40 mile radius around uptown got snow that day. ULLs can do weird things.
griteater
Member
The GFS is worse than the old Dr. No Euro. When it shows snow, it’s wrong. When it doesn’t show snow, it’s right. At least when the old Euro said it was gonna snow, it would snow
This bittercasting moment brought to you by our good friends at Angry Ale’s Bar and Bistro
This bittercasting moment brought to you by our good friends at Angry Ale’s Bar and Bistro
You are right…the airport officially had 4” that day. Most of it fell right during the evening rush hour… what was odd is that as soon as the snow stopped, even after dark, the temperatures still rose a few degrees and there was considerable melting during the overnight
There's some absolute smash jobs on the individual GEFS panes
severestorm
Member
Anyone have the GEFS members snowfall totals?
packfan98
Moderator
UKMET shows snow for the mountains. Earlier run had nothing.
CMCE not bad
No it’s not… and really looking at the soundings on the CMC, geez it’s so freakin close for pretty much the entire NC Piedmont and SC Upstate. We’re literally talking about 1 degree difference between rain and getting plastered with heavy snow
NCSNOW
Member
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I never understood messing with the old euro: Thing use to be like money in the bank 5 days in. GEFS still hasnt changed in a couple years correct? GFS Op is the newbie,right?
packfan98
Moderator
Let’s see ‘em
NCSNOW
Member
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Snowman you gone be in Blowing Rock for this one? I would think, places that are right on the crest of the eastern escarpment like West Jefferson, sparta, fancy gap will clean house on this one. They'll catch the counterclockwise lift/ upslope and maximize cooling.
severestorm
Member
Just a reminder, anything is possible lol 
packfan98
Moderator
Definite trend today towards a stronger system. A lot of precip is coming.
I live in Morganton but I work in Blowing Rock. I'll definitely be up here this weekend. I feel pretty good about seeing something.
iGRXY
Member
Track track track. At this point I think it's safe to say we are likely going to get an amped ULL. You get the ULL going overtop of you, you could squeeze out snow under those heavy returns, but it's harder. Need the GFS track. The UK or CMC track works, but it'll be harder.