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Wintry 2/11-2/12 ULL Magic or More Cold Rain

griteater said:
12z GFS

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This kind of output brings back trauma from Jan 2000 and Feb 2004 for folks in the western upstate; two MASSIVE storms that completely screwed western areas. If this low could crank about 150 SW of where this models it; it would put a lot more people in the game. This particular output will not be the final reality of course and the trends have been positive the last 24 hours so there is still a lot on the table, including for nothing for most. Selfishly; I hope this doesn't happen like this though.
 
severestorm said:
Top CIPS analogs for the 12z gfs

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The fact 93 and 2009 are on there just seems funny to me when this isn't even close to a triple phaser giant bomb cyclone and 2009 was painful to see nothing accumulate from here. I do agree the shifts will keep up for the next 2 days or so before it settles down and we can nowcast it into verification if it doesn't become too warm aloft and at the surface
 
ForsythSnow said:
The fact 93 and 2009 are on there just seems funny to me when this isn't even close to a triple phaser giant bomb cyclone and 2009 was painful to see nothing accumulate from here. I do agree the shifts will keep up for the next 2 days or so before it settles down and we can nowcast it into verification if it doesn't become too warm aloft and at the surface
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Yeah seeing 3/93 in any analog always makes me laugh because I truly doubt I’ll see another storm like that in my lifetime. There were some decent hits for my area on there and I can certainly see some similarities to March 2009, though I just don’t see this being for such an expansive area
 
iGRXY said:
January 27, 1998 is likely the footprint I am thinking if you're able to get snow outside of the mountains.
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I was at App St at the time and really didn’t realize that storm did much outside of the mountains… it wasn’t supposed to be a big deal in Boone, but it ended shutting down classes for 2 days
 
ForsythSnow said:
The fact 93 and 2009 are on there just seems funny to me when this isn't even close to a triple phaser giant bomb cyclone and 2009 was painful to see nothing accumulate from here. I do agree the shifts will keep up for the next 2 days or so before it settles down and we can nowcast it into verification if it doesn't become too warm aloft and at the surface
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3/1/09 was the event that did bring actual accumulating snow to ATL, it was 3/2/10 that was painful, no?
 
Nomanslandva said:
That looks like the EPS.
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I think that the a UKmet, Euro Ensembles footprint is the usually the way to go. I have such little faith in the gfs suite, still believe based on Temps this is a mountain snow storm, and a soaking rain elsewhere.

The clown maps are fun though. If the euro and EPS goes toward the GFS, then different ballgame to me.
 
Just catching up on the 12z models. For the western Upstate and even Greenville... we would want the CMC/Ukmet/ICON track of the 5h low. the further north track keeps surface to 900mb winds more out of the NE as opposed to NNE and really drives in that tongue of cold 900-950mb temps. At also keeps 850mb winds more easterly with the further north track which gives a little bit of an adiabatic cooling bump in that 850-900mb range against the mountains. Also we get better mid-level temps simply by being closer to the upper low center... and we are also in the best dynamics with those tracks. The GFS is a touch too far south for us, imo.

The ukmet looks especially good for us, just a little too warm at the surface verbatim, but I think that would correct colder with the hi-res models picking up on dynamic cooling better.
 
mydoortotheworld said:
3/1/09 was the event that did bring actual accumulating snow to ATL, it was 3/2/10 that was painful, no?
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ATL got 4 inches from the 3/1/09 ULL. It was the first time I saw thunder snow. We got snow from the 3/2/10 event also, but I don’t think it was much. I remember it was a sloppy mess compared to the 2009 event it kept going back and forth from snow to rain. It was very rate driven.,
 
KyloG said:
2009 was a lot colder than what we are dealing with now. But track is simliar

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It was a little colder aloft, but we had a thicker boundary layer in that setup. The strong 925mb jet that's delivering cold air in this setup is what sets it apart from that one. And it's why the GFS and CMC are even showing some sleet mixing in.

That doesn't mean we score in this one though. Just pointing out the differences...(warmer above 900mb in this set up, but colder for CAD regions in the 900-950mb range.)
 
Chazwin said:
I really don’t think this is going to be a matter of having a better chance north of I-40 or NW of I-85. To me this going to solely on what area gets under the best dynamic cooling and that will be where the accumulating snow sets up outside the mountains… there was an ULL in February 1999 that saw the CLT metro area get plastered with about 4 hours of heavy wet snow including thundersnow with temperatures right near freezing, while the I-40 corridor never cooled lower than 36-37 degrees and stayed mostly rain. This is why ULLs are so difficult to forecast
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The year Matthews saw like 15"? Yeah I remember that storm. Wasn't that like a for real surprise snow?? I don't remember hearing about it b4 it began
 
SnowNiner said:
I think that the a UKmet, Euro Ensembles footprint is the usually the way to go. I have such little faith in the gfs suite, still believe based on Temps this is a mountain snow storm, and a soaking rain elsewhere.

The clown maps are fun though. If the euro and EPS goes toward the GFS, then different ballgame to me.
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I’m inclined to agree with that about the GFS suite most of the time. However, we are inside 5 days which is typically when the GFS becomes more useful. Also there has been a trend since yesterday of more GEFS members supporting snowfall outside the mountains. Like I said earlier, I think the GFS is likely way too expensive with its area of accumulation, but I do think that if it’s close on the track, there should be a smaller area of accumulating snowfall east of the mountains
 
SnowQueen said:
The year Matthews saw like 15"? Yeah I remember that storm. Wasn't that like a for real surprise snow?? I don't remember hearing about it b4 it began
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No that was during the January 2000 crusher. The system I’m referring to occurred in February 1999 and produced a localized area of heavy snow for CLT metro while areas like Hickory and Greensboro stayed all rain
 
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
They do enjoy playing the catch-up game, historically.
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GSP and especially RNK are pathetic at times they catch up just before game time and RNK a lot of times well after the event is underway. I don’t get RNK I’ve been under 3 WWA this winter and seen nothing wintry so far.


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