Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Through hour 45, euro continuing the trend of the day - stronger.
-
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iGRXY
Member
Stronger so far
iGRXY
Member
A positive is there's a little more interaction with the energy around the GL which should help keep the tilt positive longer, hopefully.
iGRXY
Member
Old:A positive is there's a little more interaction with the energy around the GL which should help keep the tilt positive longer, hopefully.
New:
More interaction means more positively tilt trough for longer.
weatherfide
Member
- Joined
- Jan 5, 2017
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Almost identical to the UKMET at hour 60.Old:
New:
More interaction means more positively tilt trough for longer.
iGRXY
Member
One interesting note that Fro pointed out before was dropping heights in the NE and having a stronger supply of cold air. The HP press is also a little better this run even though the High didn't change positions or strength. Little nuances like that matter
I wonder if we might see a different surface reflection from the Euro if it stays similar. I looked at the UK again and with the track and set up, I was honestly suprised that it didn’t have more snowfall outside of the mountains
packfan98
Moderator
6 contour closed low at hr 78 vs 4 contour on 0z run. Those things have a mind of their own sometimes.
iGRXY
Member
Yippee
iGRXY
Member
If someone else posted this, please forgive ... here is FFC's take right now:
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 337 AM EST Wed Feb 8 2023
What looked to be a warm, clear, comfortable weekend as of yesterday
morning`s forecast package, has now rapidly diverged into a
cool/cold, wet and cloudy weather setup. This change comes as the
shortwave impulse that will affect the weather pattern in Georgia
this weekend recently coming onshore in the Pacific Northwest
over the last 6-18 hours with better upper air sampling.
Prior to Saturday the forecast remains on track with a cold front
slowing down across NW Georgia Friday morning, if not outright
stalling. Southwesterly flow will manifest as a warm, moist conveyer
belt ahead of the frontal boundary which with PWATs increasing to
1.5+ inches will provide widespread, continuous rain showers through
Friday. As the front picks up steam and pushed southeastward late
Friday, added convergence along the frontal boundary combined with
peak moisture flux should elevated rain totals in the southern and
eastern portions of the forecast area where average QPF totals are
now exceeding 2.5 inches in some isolated locations.
The biggest change, however, is with the progression and evolution
of a secondary shortwave, which was supposed to lift towards the
northeast and progress the broader wavetrain, but now looks to cut
off and swing through the Southeastern Gulf states through the
weekend. Despite the rapid changes to the systems evolution, the
consistency among the models on the upper-level and surface system
placements is uncanny, which did add confidence in the rapid change
to our forecast package. As the upper-level cutoff low pushes
eastward, a surface low is forecast to form along the baroclinic
boundary along the eastern coastline and sit off the Georgia
coastline by Saturday afternoon evening. With colder air
infiltrating the forecast area on the backside of the low
temperatures should begin to drop through the weekend, setting up
for potential wintry weather in the southern Appalachians on Saturday
night through Sunday morning. GFS has been aggressive with heavy
dendritic growth falling as melting snow in these areas but other
models have been a tiny bit more progressive and dry so exact
details will have to be worked out as the system approaches, but
signals for a couple inches of snow are increasing for the higher
elevations above 2000ft and are worth monitoring going forward.
Additionally, with temperatures just above freezing models might
tell two different stories between how much snow could FALL, versus
how much snow could STICK, therefore model interpretation will be
key. (That`s why us meteorologists make the moderate bucks!)
After Sunday, cooler drier air starts to infiltrate the region, but
it won`t be long until the cycle begins to repeat once again, which
remains the typical, active La Nina norm for the Southeastern CONUS.
Thiem
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 337 AM EST Wed Feb 8 2023
What looked to be a warm, clear, comfortable weekend as of yesterday
morning`s forecast package, has now rapidly diverged into a
cool/cold, wet and cloudy weather setup. This change comes as the
shortwave impulse that will affect the weather pattern in Georgia
this weekend recently coming onshore in the Pacific Northwest
over the last 6-18 hours with better upper air sampling.
Prior to Saturday the forecast remains on track with a cold front
slowing down across NW Georgia Friday morning, if not outright
stalling. Southwesterly flow will manifest as a warm, moist conveyer
belt ahead of the frontal boundary which with PWATs increasing to
1.5+ inches will provide widespread, continuous rain showers through
Friday. As the front picks up steam and pushed southeastward late
Friday, added convergence along the frontal boundary combined with
peak moisture flux should elevated rain totals in the southern and
eastern portions of the forecast area where average QPF totals are
now exceeding 2.5 inches in some isolated locations.
The biggest change, however, is with the progression and evolution
of a secondary shortwave, which was supposed to lift towards the
northeast and progress the broader wavetrain, but now looks to cut
off and swing through the Southeastern Gulf states through the
weekend. Despite the rapid changes to the systems evolution, the
consistency among the models on the upper-level and surface system
placements is uncanny, which did add confidence in the rapid change
to our forecast package. As the upper-level cutoff low pushes
eastward, a surface low is forecast to form along the baroclinic
boundary along the eastern coastline and sit off the Georgia
coastline by Saturday afternoon evening. With colder air
infiltrating the forecast area on the backside of the low
temperatures should begin to drop through the weekend, setting up
for potential wintry weather in the southern Appalachians on Saturday
night through Sunday morning. GFS has been aggressive with heavy
dendritic growth falling as melting snow in these areas but other
models have been a tiny bit more progressive and dry so exact
details will have to be worked out as the system approaches, but
signals for a couple inches of snow are increasing for the higher
elevations above 2000ft and are worth monitoring going forward.
Additionally, with temperatures just above freezing models might
tell two different stories between how much snow could FALL, versus
how much snow could STICK, therefore model interpretation will be
key. (That`s why us meteorologists make the moderate bucks!)
After Sunday, cooler drier air starts to infiltrate the region, but
it won`t be long until the cycle begins to repeat once again, which
remains the typical, active La Nina norm for the Southeastern CONUS.
Thiem
Euro is quite the IP party with the tounge of cold 925s coming in
850 low on the euro near gsp/clt big W for north GA and the mountains
Nomanslandva
Member
I did get .1 glaze from one of those but the valley floor didn't get anything. And nothing other than that.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
I hug, this is the solution I've wanted to see us trend towards and I really am hoping it hones in on a solution close to this toward verification. It really takes off and benefits from the dynamic cooling as you can see through the column once that deform band sets up, which given history and other model indicators, I think someone's going to get a deform band with this setup and that's where the big money will be once it pivots.
rburrel2
Member
Perfect low track for the western upstate on the Euro. -4 850's mean snow is reaching the ground with decent rates. (for some reason the euro doesn't have the best rates... not buying that with the dynamics in place).
iGRXY
Member
In terms of snow footprint, this is what I am expecting
iGRXY
Member
Yeah, the euro didn't really have that great of amounts of precip falling. On average less than 0.5" of liquid fell when it was snowing. Not sure I buy that myself, as precip doesn't seem to be a question anymore at this point. Just track and BL temps
rburrel2
Member
I don't wanna poop on eastern sections but the GFS sending the 5h low almost due easterly for a while as it wraps up/deepens seems suspect to me. Ukmet/CMC/Euro/ICON all rotate it hard to the NE once it starts to wrap up around the gulf coast.
rburrel2
Member
Short range models are going to be glorious when they come in range if they keep the same look that the 12z globals have. They'll be quicker to cool the boundary layer and really lay the hammer down.
Always enjoy a good NAM'ing.
Always enjoy a good NAM'ing.