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Wintry 2/11-2/12 ULL Magic or More Cold Rain

Question ❓
That was a definite shift. Is this because the energy is being better sampled now because it's coming on ground in NA or it's Pacific Islands?
If so this will be the beginning of westward shifts.
If not it's just 1 run and while troubling let's wait it out for future runs before panicking.
 
iGRXY said:
View attachment 132614
The one positive is we have trended the 50/50 region better. But it won’t matter if the ULL cuts to the west.
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The 50/50 is more like a .50/.50. It's not going to be of much benefit. You need a strongly amplifying ULL moving by to the south. They usually end up tracking through the Piedmont or coastal plain with the 850 low northwest of that track. Looks pretty rough right now for snow chances for most.
 
Billypg70 said:
Question ❓
That was a definite shift. Is this because the energy is being better sampled now because it's coming on ground in NA or it's Pacific Islands?
If so this will be the beginning of westward shifts.
If not it's just 1 run and while troubling let's wait it out for future runs before panicking.
Click to expand...
Don't know that I've ever heard a definitive answer on this, but reading thru the tea leaves, my take on this is that there are a number of sources for observational data such as satellite data, obs from aircraft and ships traveling around the world, and obs from land based soundings (and maybe others). So waiting for a feature in the atmosphere to appear over land won't necessarily result in big changes since land based soundings aren't the only way we inject obs into the models. In this case, the wave that dives into the SE is already over ID/MT/WY this evening. Of course, the troughs and ridges upstream and downstream of that wave that play into the eventual track are being sampled as well. As much as anything, I think it just comes down to the notion that the model runs are constantly making adjustments, with bigger adjustments happening of course as you go farther out in time.
 
Good news with the NAM is that not only did it remain steadfast in its overall track (just a little faster) but at H5 there was less Separation and held the tilt positive longer which is honestly going to end up being the key feature here IMO. 50/50 is great, overall ULL strength is nice, but at the end of the day, this is dependent 1st on keeping the N/S interaction until our S/W is well into the Deep South.
 
What a trend for those back to the west and SW. I mean we’ve gone from western North Carolina to Augusta Georgia to Nashville and now Atlanta getting pummeled. I think I’ll just sit back and watch it all unfold.

ULL whether mans woe definitely rings true.


That was a pretty good NAM ing.
 
Finally got a fantasy crush job when the NAM came in to range just like I figured it would. Now I just have to hold it here for 84hrs. What can go wrong?

Seriously though this is the ideal 5h low track for North Ga and upstate SC. Would be an epic crush job as depicted, it's just getting started good at hour 84.
 
Snowlover87 said:
Is the NAM reliable at this range ?
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I dare you to ask @Rain Cold that question. He's likely to give you a "No" preceded with an expletive. For me, none of the models are awesome anymore. Just throw them all together and take bits and pieces from each. I've seen the NAM have good value at range
 
????
namconus_temp_adv_fgen_850_seus_50.png
 
SnowNiner said:
The EPS jump today was encouraging. That I think certainly puts the foothills in play. Imo, the piedmonts got a way to go. Who knows, maybe gfs scores a coup here.
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This aged incredibly poorly, lol. Wow. Didnt think this close to the event, the EPS would change so much. Not sure I've seen that before. I'm legitimately surprised.
 
Could there be any wind with this ULL during this event?
 
griteater said:
Don't know that I've ever heard a definitive answer on this, but reading thru the tea leaves, my take on this is that there are a number of sources for observational data such as satellite data, obs from aircraft and ships traveling around the world, and obs from land based soundings (and maybe others). So waiting for a feature in the atmosphere to appear over land won't necessarily result in big changes since land based soundings aren't the only way we inject obs into the models. In this case, the wave that dives into the SE is already over ID/MT/WY this evening. Of course, the troughs and ridges upstream and downstream of that wave that play into the eventual track are being sampled as well. As much as anything, I think it just comes down to the notion that the model runs are constantly making adjustments, with bigger adjustments happening of course as you go farther out in time.
Click to expand...
Sampling improves a lot once on land, on our land.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
NAM is bad at that range, worst model out there. Hasn’t had a update in years
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While I do agree to some extent with the NAM being bad, the shifts from the other globals right now are just as bad in this instance so they're all about fair game unless one stabilizes first and the rest fall in line. Remember this was a NC/VA storm a day ago and the globals all thought that?
 
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